Predicting the 10 Most Dangerous NBA Contracts in 2028
What is the tipping point where an NBA player's contract goes from being a positive to a heavy burden?
For the Philadelphia 76ers, Joel Embiid went from NBA MVP for the 2022-23 regular season to playing 58 games over the next two years. Jayson Tatum helped lead the Boston Celtics to a championship in 2023-24, but the All-Star forward was lost to a dreadful Achilles injury in May 2025.
Fortunately, Tatum, who just turned 28, was able to return in what seems like record time. The NBA system allows teams to pay the oldest players the highest salaries, which can be counterproductive as their bodies break down with age (an unfortunate inevitability for all, despite LeBron James' longevity).
Last year at B/R (Predicting the Worst-Value NBA Contracts in 2 Years), Tatum was No. 2 on the list before his injury.
Given luxury taxes, aprons and the complex rules of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement, how a team spends its money has become even more important. This list, using similar methodology, maps out the 10 riskiest NBA contracts as of the start of the 2027-28 campaign in October 2027.
Honorable Mention: Rookie-Scale Contracts
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First-round picks carry a special designation that allows them to extend before their fourth season without limitation (up to 25 percent of the salary cap; veterans are typically capped to an extension starting 140 percent of their expiring salary). These are typically younger players, often paid more for potential than for a proven track record.
The league also allows for a rookie-scale player to earn above their normal max, up to 30 percent of the cap, by reaching certain goals like Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, or an All-NBA designation. For the Detroit Pistons, Cade Cunningham is in that higher tier, helping turn the franchise into a top Eastern Conference contender.
Where teams can get overextended is with multiple players on similar rookie-scale extensions, like the Oklahoma City Thunder or Orlando Magic. The Thunder invested after winning a championship; the Magic have three players under similar circumstances (including Desmond Bane, with two years left on his deal at $87.1-90 million), but have yet to reach a similar level of success.
The following is a list of players on rookie-scale contracts with at least three seasons left as of 2027-28:
Note: Last year's accounting had 13 players in this range; this group is just nine. Does that reflect a trend in fiscal restraint or draft quality in a specific year? Check back in March 2027 to see if the pattern continues.
Those coming off include LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets), Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves), Tyrese Haliburton (Indiana Pacers), Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia 76ers), Immanuel Quickley (Raptors), and Bane—each with two years remaining as of 2027-28, representing at worst, short-term risk.
No. 10: Lauri Markkanen
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2027-28 salary: $49.8 million
Utah Jazz
Age on opening night: 30.4
Balance: $103.3 million over two years
Former All-Star
Right off the bat, Markkanen should help elucidate that this is not a list of "bad" contracts. Through 42 games, Markkanen has averaged 26.7 points per game. That's a significant jump from last season's 19 per contest.
Where Markkanen differs from many on this list is that he's paid like a top-tier franchise player for a squad that regularly misses the playoffs. Perhaps this is the final year for Utah to mine the lottery for talent, trading for Jaren Jackson Jr. from the Memphis Grizzlies before the deadline. But Markkanen and Jackson need to prove they can power a contender together.
At least Markkanen's salary is relatively short. With his age, relative to exciting developing players like Keyonte George (almost 24 by the 2027-28 season), and price, do the Jazz consider doubling down and giving Markkanen an extension?
No. 9: OG Anunoby
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2027-28 salary: $45.4 million
New York Knicks
Age on opening night: 30.3
Balance: $93.8 million over two years (player option on final season)
No All-Star Appearances
The Knicks are an all-in contender for the Eastern Conference. Anunoby represents an important part of what the team is trying to achieve. He's a proven champion (with the Toronto Raptors), a willing defender, and a helpful secondary scorer (16.4 points a game).
But Anunoby is earning star-level money to be one of the Knicks' most important role players. That only makes sense if the franchise is reaching its goals, starting with the NBA Finals, culminating in a title.
No. 8: Jakob Pöeltl
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2027-28 salary: $27.3 million
Toronto Raptors
Age on opening night: 32.0
Balance: $84.1 million over three years (final season partially guaranteed)
No All-Star Appearances
Note: 2029-30 guaranteed at $5 million with minutes-based incentives to increase his salary protection
Pöltl's contract is the only one on the list below $30 million per year, but he's one of the most expensive players in the league relative to production. Pöltl's greatest issue is staying healthy. He's already 30 years old, and durability rarely improves with age.
Pöltl is a legit 7-footer who scores efficiently at the basket (70.1 percent from the field), but the Raptors have a heavy-enough player to be paying Pöltl that price for the role he provides.
No. 7: Mikal Bridges
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2027-28 salary: $36.2 million
New York Knicks
Age on opening night: 31.1
Balance: $116.5 million over three years (player option on final season)
No All-Star appearances
Beyond the context of the multiple first-round picks the Knicks gave up to get Bridges from the Brooklyn Nets, it's the four-year $150 million extension New York issued that may be problematic. He's not on the team to score the 26.1 points per game he reached in 2022-23 (over 27 games), but to support All-Stars Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns with defense and spacing.
While Bridges is doing his part this season, averaging 15.3 points per game and shooting 38.1 percent from three-point range, it's the length and annual salary ($38.8 million average) that may limit what else the Knicks can do to flesh out and maintain a championship roster.
No. 6: Jaren Jackson Jr.
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2027-28 salary: $50.5 million
Utah Jazz
Age on opening night: 30.4
Balance: $156 million over three years (player option on final season)
Former All-Star
Jackson is a talented player, stuck in recent years in rebuilding situations. The Jazz invested heavily in a trade to acquire Jackson from the Memphis Grizzlies. Paired with a Lauri Markkanen next year, with a healthy, improved roster, Jackson may be a huge part of a resurgence in Utah.
Unlike players such as Luka Dončić, Jamal Murray, Bam Adebayo and Jaylen Brown, who are all on two-year deals in the $55-$63 million range, Jackson's deal is a year longer. Even if his final year is at the low end of that range at $53.5 million, that's a heavy number for a player who has had durability issues throughout his career.
The Jazz were motivated to climb out of the lottery (after this season), and may be on the right path with Jackson and Markkanen. Still, those decisions come with a sizable downside if it doesn't work (before considering the three first-round picks given up to pry him from the Grizzlies).
No. 5: Joel Embiid
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2027-28 salary: $62..4 million
Philadelphia 76ers
Age on opening night: 33.6
Balance: $129.4 million over two years (player option on final season)
Former All-Star
Embiid dips from No. 1 last year to No. 5 by virtue of another season off the 76ers' books. The good news is that he's hit 33 games already this year, after 19 in 2024 and 39 in 2023-24 (though he's currently dealing with a strained oblique).
When healthy, he's still one of the most talented scoring big men in the NBA. Unfortunately, Embiid hasn't been able to maintain the MVP level he showed in the 2022-23 season.
The Sixers have an exciting youth movement developing around Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. Investments in older players haven't borne fruit, but by 2027-28, Paul George will be in the final year of his deal ($56.6 million, player option). Still, the obligation to Embiid extends another season, taking up a sizable portion of the team's salary cap.
No. 4: De'Aaron Fox
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2027-28 salary: $53.8 million
San Antonio Spurs
Age on opening night: 29.8
Balance: $173.4 million over three years
All-Star
Fox was not a "mistake" for the Spurs. The risk exists because of the size of his contract. He's the fourth-highest-earning player in the NBA on non-rookie-scale contracts, which is why he's ranked No. 4.
San Antonio didn't give up a significant bounty to acquire Fox from the Sacramento Kings. While some questioned why the franchise gave him a massive extension, despite the emergence of Rookie of the Year guard Stephon Castle and No. 2 pick Dylan Harper, the results have borne fruit immediately.
The Spurs have gone from an interesting team to a Western Conference powerhouse. It remains to be seen if the team will immediately challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder (and all other suitors) for an NBA Finals bid. Even if it takes another year for San Antonio to gain the experience necessary to win a championship, Fox was the kind of risk the team needed to take.
Will the franchise eventually need to thin out its backcourt for financial reasons? Perhaps, but that's not an issue until 2027-28, when Victor Wembanyama is expected to start a max extension (he's eligible to sign this July). Still, San Antonio may choose to move on from other players like Devin Vassell before making the more difficult choices surrounding Fox. And future extensions for Castle and Harper wouldn't kick in until 2028-29 and 2029-30, respectively.
No. 3: Jayson Tatum
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2027-28 salary: $62.8 million
Boston Celtics
Age on opening night: 29.6
Balance: $201.4 million over three years (player option on final season)
Former All-Star
Tatum was No. 2 last year by virtue of a $259.8 million obligation, dwarfing even the $192.9 million owed to Joel Embiid. Tatum's unfortunate Achilles injury illustrates how serious, and potentially fleeting, a quarter-of-a-billion-dollar investment in any athlete can be.
Fortunately, Tatum has (almost shockingly) returned early from the injury. The Celtics are a surprise contender this year despite significant payroll reductions, having parted with valued championship contributors like Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis. Getting Tatum back, provided he can stay healthy, adds one of the league's best players to an already tremendous squad.
Still, he's owed a massive amount over the next three years. Players rarely come back at the same level from an Achilles tear, but Tatum may be the exception to the rule.
No. 2: Devin Booker
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2027-28 salary: $61 million
Phoenix Suns
Age on opening night: 31.0
Balance: $194.3 million over three years (player option on final season)
All-Star
The Suns made a bold choice in July, giving Booker an extension despite the team's multi-year struggles. After trading Kevin Durant, perhaps the Booker signing was intended to show confidence that he is and will be their franchise player for years to come. And Phoenix is appreciably better this year. Booker returned to All-Star form.
The challenge for Phoenix is whether Booker fits the age bracket long-term for a squad that is arguably good but not necessarily great in a tough Western Conference. Will his large number get in the way of building, and if the team decides it needs to pivot, does his contract get in the way of a favorable trade?
This is not to say that the Booker extension was a poor decision. From the outside, it didn't seem necessary, but obviously, the franchise felt otherwise. However, the Suns have a long way to go as a roster, and it's unclear if those heights will be reached throughout Booker's tenure.
No. 1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
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2027-28 salary: $61 million
Oklahoma City Thunder
Age on opening night: 29.3
Balance: $273.3 million over four years (player option on final season)
All-Star
Every action a team takes carries risk, as does the absence of action. The Thunder gave the NBA and NBA Finals MVP the most money it could to lock him in for as long as possible. Gilgeous-Alexander will still be under 30 when the 2027-28 season begins. It was a move that nearly every franchise makes, given the circumstances.
The team also maxed out Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren on rookie-scale extensions, fully investing in the group that has a tangible opportunity to win back-to-back this year.
Still, a $273.3 million obligation (which doesn't consider his current and 2026-27 salaries) is a staggering amount for a single person. Congratulations to Gilgeous-Alexander, and the money earned by the NBA should flow to the top talent in the system, as agreed by the league and the National Basketball Players Association.
The sheer volume makes Gilgeous-Alexander's the riskiest contract, even if he's the most likely name on the list to live up to it.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X @EricPincus and Bluesky.
