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The Blockbuster NBA Trade That Would Change the League Overnight
Working out a fake NBA trade in March is tough.
We're a month past the trade deadline. We have no idea who'll win the title. It's tough to know exactly what each team's books will look like by the time the new league year starts. And in the case of the particular deal, we're about to speculate on, we don't know what effect (if any) the league's investigation into alleged cap circumvention will have on Kawhi Leonard's contract.
All of the above factors into the possibility of a trade, so we'll take some liberties on all of them before breaking down the potential move that could send Kawhi Leonard to the Detroit Pistons.
First, assume the Pistons and Los Angeles Clippers don't win the championship in June (a little safer in one case than it is the other). Next, Detroit's willing to renounce this summer's cap holds on Tobias Harris and Kevin Huerter and is able to sign Jalen Duren to a reasonable new contract. And finally, assume that the $50.3 million currently owed to Kawhi is still owed and tradable in July.
Under that very specific set of circumstances, adding Leonard to Duren and Cade Cunningham would alter the league overnight.
The Deal
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Before we dive into why each team would make this move, it's helpful to see the entire thing in one frame.
Pistons Receive: Kawhi Leonard
Clippers Receive: Duncan Robinson, Isaiah Stewart, Ron Holland, a 2027 first-round pick and a 2031 first-round pick swap
As always, feel free to quibble over the amount of draft compensation. You may prefer some different filler contracts from Detroit (maybe there's some way to work Caris LeVert into the deal instead of Duncan Robinson, for example).
But in general, this is a foundation that makes sense. And below, we'll explain why.
Pistons Go All-In
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It should be noted that the Pistons have a very real chance to win it all this season. They're jockeying with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the best record in the league. They have a pair of All-Stars in Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren. And over the last 25 years or so, the East has generally offered a clearer path to the Finals than the West.
But Cunningham and Duren are also under 25 years old. Neither has been beyond the first round of the playoffs. Recent NBA history doesn't offer a ton of examples of teams that went from a single, one-round playoff run to a championship in one year. Typically, players have to take a few more lumps before they're able to survive the four-round slog of a title run.
Beyond that, Detroit is currently 18th in the league in points per play in the halfcourt. They're in the bottom 10 in three-point percentage. Those are pretty scary spots for a team that rightfully sees itself as a contender. In the postseason, when the game slows down, halfcourt execution is critical. Cade's outlets will have to be reliable three-point threats for Detroit to knock off teams like the Boston Celtics or New York Knicks.
If they can't, moving one veteran (Robinson), a young(ish) center (Stewart), a wing prospect (Holland) and a couple picks for Leonard could go a long way toward addressing all of the Pistons' shortcomings ahead of the 2026-27 season.
This season, L.A. is in the 74th percentile in halfcourt points per play when Kawhi is on the floor (and is still average when Kawhi's been on the floor without James Harden). Pairing him with Cade could give the Pistons a one-two punch similar to what the Clippers had before the Harden trade, while also giving Cade the best, high-volume finisher he's ever played with.
Leonard would also draw tons of perimeter defense away from Cunningham, could spare him from engineering a handful of possessions a game and give him a better shot at above-average scoring efficiency for himself.
And while this deal might cost Detroit much of the attitude that's made them unique this season (Stewart and Holland provide a lot of that), Leonard's defensive acumen and experience could make up for a lot of that.
But all of the above might be a little bit of analytical overkill. The biggest reason this would make sense for Detroit is the simple fact that Kawhi is still one of the 5-10 best players in the league. Adding that kind of talent to Cunningham (who's probably around the same range in the league's hierarchy) could take the Pistons from contender to favorite in the East.
Clippers Lean Into New Era
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Despite being the team giving up the superstar, the explanation for the Clippers is a little easier.
Barring a miraculous run this spring and summer, L.A. never lived up to the lofty expectations that came with Kawhi. And it already signaled a willingness to look toward the future by trading Harden for Darius Garland and Ivica Zubac for Bennedict Mathurin.
A Leonard trade would complete the pivot toward a new era. And this particular package makes sense in the context of the other trades.
The new-look Clippers have a lot of offense and shot creation between Garland and Mathurin. Slotting Holland and Stewart into lineups with them would bring a little more defensive energy and willingness to finish plays rather than start them.
Some may say that L.A. would insist on more draft capital. And maybe that's true. But Kawhi turns 35 in June. His injury history suggests things could go south in a hurry. The chances of anyone ponying up more than two picks are probably pretty light.
In total, this deal gives the Clippers Robinson's shooting, young talent and multiple picks. And the resulting core could be ready to compete for a playoff spot as early as next season.
