Daily Fantasy Football 2015: Projecting the Top 10 DFS Players for the Year

Rejoice! There are officially zero weekends without football until February, which means it’s time to start thinking about fantasy and more specifically DraftKings daily fantasy football.

The difference between regular fantasy sports and DFS is of course the salary cap. That means that you have to be adept at balancing studs with sleepers.

Ignoring player prices, this article’s aim is to predict two of the top DFS players for the 2015 season at each position. The players listed should provide elite week-to-week production, no matter their opponent.

Let's get right to it. 

Quarterback—Aaron Rodgers

This guy is like the Clayton Kershaw of daily fantasy football. He’s almost matchup-independent and chances are, he’s the first player in most people’s lineups.

There’s a reason for that.

Rodgers wasn’t the top-scoring quarterback in DFS last season. He didn’t lead the league in touchdown passes, and he wasn’t even in the top five in passing yards.

But he’s the top option at quarterback for one reason.

Consistency.

Rodgers fell short of Andrew Luck in DFS points last season, throwing for 380 fewer yards and two touchdowns fewer than Luck. But Rodgers also threw 11 fewer interceptions and had 96 fewer passing attempts.

On the ground, Rodgers had just four fewer yards (269) and one less touchdown (2) than Luck while rushing 21 fewer times.

The Indianapolis Colts could end up rushing the ball more with Frank Gore entering the mix. If Rodgers and Luck throw closer to the same number of passes, Rodgers’ consistency would make him the better quarterback week-to-week, regardless of schedule.

NumberFire projects Rodgers to be the top fantasy quarterback of 2015.

Quarterback—Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson finished with half as many passing touchdowns (20) as Andrew Luck but only finished 52.1 points behind him at season’s end, or just 3.26 points per game. 

How?

Wilson ran for 576 more yards and three more touchdowns. Rushing touchdowns are worth two more points than passing, and while Wilson only had three more than Luck, he rushed about twice as often.

Wilson also added a major offensive weapon in the offseason with top-flight tight end Jimmy Graham coming over via trade. Graham had more targets inside the opponent’s five-yard line than any other tight end and was second among his position in overall red-zone targets with 21, according to Rotowire.

Graham should add a legitimate red-zone option that Seattle absolutely lacked in its passing attack last season. That alone should give Wilson more value.

NumberFire isn't as kind to Wilson, projecting him to finish as the sixth-best fantasy quarterback. Most of that projection is due to NumberFire predicting Wilson's rushing totals to completely drop off, with 17 fewer rushes and 264 fewer yards than he ran for in 2014.

Running Back—Le'Veon Bell

So much was made of DeMarco Murray’s breakout year last season, but everyone forgets about Le’Veon Bell. Murray finished with a DraftKings’ high 392.1 points among running backs, but Bell was just 6.6 points behind him. 

Bell’s 83 receptions ranked him second at the position, while his 854 receiving yards were the most by a running back. He also finished second with 1,361 yards rushing.

He’s suspended for the first two games of the season, but NumberFire still has him as their fourth-best running back for 2015. 

Running Back—Marshawn Lynch

Lynch finished fourth among running backs in DFS last season, amassing over 1,300 yards with 13 touchdowns. Seattle is a defense- and run-heavy operation, and Beast Mode figures to factor into that equation just as he usually does.

On top of his 13 rushing scores, Lynch added four via reception, and while that number might drop a bit this season, Lynch is still going to be the primary option, especially in the red zone.

In 2014, Lynch had the seventh-highest cash rate in DraftKings head-to-head and 50/50 tournaments at 61 percent. That means that 61 percent of users who had Lynch in their lineup won.

NumberFire has Beast Mode as their second-best running back for 2015, essentially making him money in the bank.

Wide Receiver—Antonio Brown

Brown was the wide receiver to have all of last season, finishing as not only the top wideout in DFS, but also the top scorer, period, besting Andrew Luck by more than 10 points.

Brown was obviously also the top scorer at wide receiver, where he bested second-place Demaryius Thomas by 42 points.

He was able to put up monstrous points because he led the league in receptions (129), receiving yards (1,698) and finished tied for second in receiving touchdowns (13). Brown was the second-most targeted receiver, behind Thomas (184), with 182.

Being Ben Roethlisberger’s go-to option paid off for Brown’s DFS owners, as he scored 20 or more points in 13 of 16 games.

That sort of consistency makes him the sort of player you put in your lineup at any price. NumberFire once again projects Brown to be the top wide receiver in fantasy, just barely edging out Thomas by less than a point. 

Wide Receiver—Odell Beckham Jr.

Last year’s out-of-nowhere fantasy MVP was just as valuable in DFS.

Odell Beckham Jr. rewarded those who put him in their DraftKings lineups by being the winningest overall player. In head-to-head and 50/50s, OBJ-infused teams won a remarkable 73 percent of the time. That’s 8 percent better than the second-highest player, Jeremy Hill.

He did so because he put up incredible numbers.

Beckham finished seventh in DFS among receivers despite missing four games at the beginning of the season. On a per-game average, Beckham outscored the top-DFS wide receiver Antonio Brown by 0.61 points per game.

While it’s unlikely he’ll be able to sustain a 26.4 points-per-game pace like he did last season, he’ll still probably help your team finish in the money more often than not.

NumberFire expects OBJ to fall back to earth a bit, ranking him as the seventh-best receiver.  

Tight End—Rob Gronkowski

In the land of tight end, there’s Gronk and then there’s everyone else.

While he might not be a value play, he’s certainly a difference maker at his position, scoring 40.5 points more than second-place Jimmy Graham.

Gronk enters the season with two major question marks. No. 1: How will he fare without Tom Brady for the first four games of the season? No. 2: Can he stay healthy?

The first question is really the only one that matters in DFS. If Gronk is healthy, he’s almost a must-start as the difference he can provide at tight end is unique to any other player at any other position. 

NumberFire isn't too concerned, ranking Gronk as the top tight end, but pay attention to how he and Jimmy Garoppolo sync up in the preseason.

Tight End—Travis Kelce

In 2014, Kelce split time with fellow tight end Anthony Fasano and ended up on the short end of offensive snaps between the two, according to Football Outsiders.

Despite that, Kelce finished sixth among tight ends with 67 catches and 862 yards. With Fasano now a Titan, Kelce figures to see the vast majority of time in Kansas City’s West Coast offense.

Kelce is a popular pick to break out this season, and with his numbers from last season in limited snaps, it’s easy to understand why. At a position where it’s Gronk, Graham and then 50 feet of you-know-what, Kelce could be a breath of fresh air and provide some much-needed depth.

NumberFire also expects Kelce to ascend to the top tier, projecting him as the best tight end not named Gronk or Graham. 

Defense—Buffalo Bills

Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

The Bills finished just 15th in sacks with 39, 19th in interceptions with 13 and 17th in fumble recoveries with nine. Buffalo was also one of just 10 teams to finish the season without a fumble recovery for a touchdown, and returned just two INTs to the house.

Despite the lack in turnovers, Buffalo was formidable.

They finished as the second-best defense in DFS last season, ending the season fourth in yards-per-game allowed (312.2) and points-per-game allowed (18.1).

Bringing in Rex Ryan as head coach could make the Bills an even better defense in 2015. If the turnover numbers in improve, they could be elite.

The Bills are ranked as the second-best defense according to NumberFire.

Defense—Seattle Seahawks

Scott Eklund/Associated Press

Turnovers can be rather fluky, which is why the Eagles finished as the top defense last season. Yards per game is a much better stat in determining how dominant a defense truly is.

That’s exactly why Seattle makes the cut.

The Seahawks were the only team in the league to allow fewer than 300 total yards per game over the last two seasons (they also did it in 2013).

The Seahawks have questions in their secondary, with Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas both recovering from injuries, but like the Bills, Seattle has room to improve in the turnover department as well.

Seattle finished 30th in interceptions last season with just seven. They also recovered just seven fumbles all year—good for 25th in the league—but still managed a top-10 DFS defense.

Seattle has been one of the top defenses in the league for quite some time, and despite a slow start last season, still finished near the top. The Legion of Boom may be getting older, but it's still the top-rated defense according to NumberFire.

All stats and info courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

2014 DraftKings fantasy points courtesy of RotoGuru.

Follow Aaron Brand on Twitter @AaronBrand47

Pricing information and scoring data can be obtained from DraftKings.com.

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