New 2026 NBA Mock Draft with Wild Lottery Simulation
While the NBA is mulling over solutions to its perceived tanking problem, what if the answer to this issue is as simple as waiting?
It's true that a few teams might tank every year, but the current trend is magnified by the quality of this draft class. And with the 2027 and 2028 classes receiving far less favorable reviews, the tank races are expected to be far less crowded going forward.
Plus, waiting a couple of months might allow the league to remind the most forward-focused franchises of how little is guaranteed with flattened lottery odds. That kind of chaos can (and often does) make a season full of stockpiling losses seem entirely unwise.
Speaking of chaos, that's the focus for this latest mock draft. Because the lottery simulator over at Tankathon just had one heck of a wild time setting the draft order. There's a surprise jackpot winner, a certified tanker left with nothing to show for it, and all kinds of interesting angles to dissect during this hypothetical talent grab.
With the stage properly set, let's put that simulated lottery winner on the clock and get things started.
1. Portland Trail Blazers: AJ Dybantsa, BYU
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This (simulated) gift from the basketball gods leaves the Trail Blazers to settle the Dybantsa vs. Darryn Peterson debate. (Or decide whether Cameron Boozer should be seriously involved in said argument.) In the end, though, Portland turns its lottery fortune into Dybantsa's skyscraping ceiling and immediately has visions of constructing a contender around him, Deni Avdija, and Shaedon Sharpe.
Tools-first big wings don't always pan out, obviously, but how many come equipped with the kind of polish that allows them to average a best-in-the-nation 24.8 points while shooting 52.1 percent overall and dishing nearly four assists a night?
Dybantsa's three-ball is ignitable, and his explosiveness is jaw-dropping. He visits the free-throw line about as many times per game as the rest of us check our phones. There are some areas he'll need to buff in decision-making and defensive awareness, but his future looks fascinating, and his present form offers plenty of encouragement.
2. Atlanta Hawks (via MIL): Darryn Peterson, Kansas
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New Orleans' near-worst fears are realized, as the swap rights it inexcusably gave up during last year's draft grant Atlanta a prime opportunity to expand its young core. While the Hawks' readiness to compete could point some toward Cameron Boozer, they might have too much talent and not enough shooting in the frontcourt to maximize his impact.
That's not at all to suggest Peterson is a by-default draft choice here, though. Even with the injury unknowns and inconsistent availability, the potential for a wholly elite shot-maker, multi-positional defender, and secondary playmaker is too much to pass up.
His explosiveness and passing haven't impressed as much at Kansas as they did in high school, but if this is all situational—i.e., related to both the injury issues and lack of spacing in this offense—then it shouldn't clutter his path to NBA stardom. Pair his scoring punch with Jalen Johnson's lots-of-everything skill set, and Atlanta could be soaring toward Eastern Conference contention in no time.
3. Milwaukee Bucks (via NOP): Cameron Boozer, Duke
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If this is how the ping pong balls drop, it'll be fascinating to see how the Bucks handle their good fortune. Would they immediately start shopping the pick for established help in hopes of convincing Giannis Antetokounmpo to stay for the long haul? Or would they take the best-player-available route and feel they're getting a young, cost-controlled co-star for the Greek Freak or his heir apparent?
That's hard to say right now, but here's what isn't: If Dybantsa and Peterson go first and second, Boozer isn't getting past the third spot.
He's the safest bet in this class to be a good player. The question is whether greatness is achievable. You'd bet against it, if only because that's such a high standard for anyone to reach, but his bag is bursting at the seams. There is so much he can do, and very little you worry about him not being able to.
4. Sacramento Kings: Darius Acuff Jr., Arkansas
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It's never easy to say how much fit should be considered when mock-drafting before the actual order is set. You're more providing a snapshot of the draft class than connecting prospects to teams, so it probably shouldn't be as strong a factor now as it would be in a mid-June mock.
That said, fit feels like it has a role here—both in this mock and with this very pick. Because the player most popularly mocked fourth overall, North Carolina's Caleb Wilson, feels closer to a finishing piece than a foundational one. And the Kings clearly aren't anywhere close to solving their puzzle, as they've unintentionally tanked harder than all of the organizations who've long been trying to lose.
Sacramento seems as poised as anyone to take a big swing, and it could see Acuff as a two-layered wager. First, that his polish and floor generalship could cover up the De'Aaron Fox-sized hole in the backcourt. Second, that Acuff's dominant flashes (three games over 30 points, four with double-digit assists) grant him the high-end ceiling this club so desperately needs.
5. Brooklyn Nets: Keaton Wagler, Illinois
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After overloading on playmakers at the last draft, the Nets should be on the hunt for scorers this draft season. You know, unless they plan on running MPJ-or-bust offense forever.
Well, Wagler is easily the biggest riser in this class, and he can credit much of that surge to bucket-getting and net-shredding. He's still mastering the art of offensive consistency (related: he turned 19 last month), but he has authored some of the loudest stat lines in the sport: 46 points on 17 field-goal attempts against Purdue; 34 points and seven assists against Wisconsin; 28 points, 10 free throws, and five assists against Nebraska.
"He's one of the greatest stories in a long, long time," Illinois coach Brad Underwood told ESPN's Adam Rittenberg. "I had some guy tell me Tracy McGrady, 30 years ago, kind of showed up at a camp and blew up. That's what this is about."
6. Los Angeles Clippers (via IND): Caleb Wilson, North Carolina
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After trading away both James Harden and Ivica Zubac, the Clippers could be on the cusp of a top-to-bottom overhaul. That, or they could attempt a rapid reload around Kawhi Leonard, who remains in the best-two-way-player-on-the-planet discussions whenever his availability issues don't get the better of him.
Either way, they could see huge appeal in Wilson, who can be a tone-setter with his tools and tenacity but also flashed enough open-floor handling and creating before fracturing his hand to imagine an NBA offense might one day feature him.
He doesn't take or make a ton of threes, and he can be a bit spotty with his off-ball defense, so he's not quite a perfect prospect. But it's pretty easy to envision a snug-fitting role for him early on, and it's hard not to love the value here for a player routinely mocked a couple spots higher.
7. Washington Wizards: Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville
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The Wizards will be one of the most fascinating teams to watch at this year's draft. Because their midseason swings on Trae Young and Anthony Davis seemingly indicate a desire to compete sooner than later. Then again, they may have felt the trade costs were simply low enough to serve as a test run for an acceleration attempt.
Even with Young and Davis on board, Washington should worry less about fit and more about talent. Brown might be searching for consistency, but his flashes are elite. And as a premier playmaker with deep shooting range, he might be the perfect understudy to slot in behind Young for some high-level on-the-job training.
"When Brown has it rolling, there may not be a more dynamic ball-screen playmaker in college basketball," The Athletic's Sam Vecenie wrote. "He has range out to 30 feet...and his vision as a playmaker for others exceeds everyone in the class when playing in a screen. If there is anyone in this deep draft class who could average nine or 10 assists per game in the NBA, it's Brown."
8. Utah Jazz: Kingston Flemings, Houston
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Flemings could go two, three, or even four picks higher than this, and no one would bat an eye. He may not have the loudest stats among the many dynamic freshman guards—although, at 16.6 points and 5.3 assists, he's not exactly lacking—but his impact on winning feels obvious and immense as the top scorer and table-setter on a great Cougars club.
That feels like it would matter to a Jazz team that made a bold move for Jaren Jackson Jr. at the deadline. Utah might not be aiming to win just yet—it still has a top-eight-protected pick to safeguard after all—but it looks like this club could go full-throttle as soon as next season.
His fit with Keyonte George could be a little funky, and it would pressure Flemings to ramp up his outside shooting, but pairing a multi-creator backcourt with this towering frontcourt could make the Jazz a tough matchup in no time.
9. Dallas Mavericks: Brayden Burries, Arizona
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Could the Mavs try a bigger swing as they aim to find more long-term running mates to slot alongside Cooper Flagg? Maybe. Nate Ament would surely get a long look.
That said, after this draft, Dallas won't control its first-round pick again until 2031, so it really needs to get this right. And Burries feels like a get-it-right kind of prospect.
He could land closer to a home run selection if he proves able to consistently separate at the NBA level, but even without that skill, there's a lot to like about a freshman guard providing so much winning basketball for one of the country's top teams. He is efficient on offense and active on both defense and the glass. He could have a long, productive career ahead of him, even if he doesn't have a ton of super-high-end possibilities in his range of outcomes.
10. Memphis Grizzlies: Nate Ament, Tennessee
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In case we need another reminder that injuries are the absolute worst, a high ankle sprain just disrupted what was becoming a really encouraging run for Ament.
The 6'10" swingman was slaying conference foes left and right, averaging 22 points and 6.8 rebounds while shooting 38 percent from three and 83.7 percent at the line over his last 12 outings before getting hurt against Alabama.
The Grizzlies would need the right kind of forward-projecting to really love this pick, as there are questions about Ament's strength, explosion, and shooting consistency. If anyone were ready and willing to throw a dart, though, you'd figure it might be the team that traded away both Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. and seemingly awaits a taker for Ja Morant amid an organizational overhaul.
11. Chicago Bulls: Jayden Quaintance, Kentucky
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Slipping back to 11 would be a tough draw for the Bulls, who desperately need more blue-chip talent to pair with Matas Buzelis. Still, the misfortune would fall under the self-inflicted label, so Chicago took an unforgivable amount of time to pull the plug on a core that clearly was never close to competing at a high level.
With a massive upside swing unavailable, the Bulls instead pivot to Quaintance, who looked like a hyper-disruptive, culture-creating defender when not having to navigate around the torn ACL that ended his freshman campaign early and has limited him to four contests so far as a sophomore.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC): Thomas Haugh, Florida
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Most lottery teams will ding Haugh for his age (22) and perceived lack of upside. For winners, though, he might loom as an obvious candidate for early playing time, and the all-the-little-things contributions that help support players fill useful roles.
A career 32.6 percent three-point shooter, his perimeter touch may ultimately define his long-term trajectory. He could still crack a rotation as a rookie (yes, even one this loaded) for his elite motor, spring-loaded athleticism, and advanced feel.
13. San Antonio Spurs (via ATL): Karim Lopez, New Zealand Breakers
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The Spurs could opt for a "safer" selection, since they're doing more than OK in the upside department. Then again, teams that sit this high in the standings aren't often drafting this early, so maybe a dice roll is worth it.
Lopez doesn't have many completely trustworthy and translatable skills yet, but if everything breaks right, you might be looking at a 6'8", 225-pounder who can shoot, dribble, and create. That seems more interesting than San Antonio trying to fill a specific niche.
14. Charlotte Hornets: Hannes Steinbach, Washington
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Ryan Kalkbrenner and Moussa Diabaté have done what they can to stabilize what threatened to be a brutally bad big-man rotation in Buzz City. They also probably haven't done enough for the Hornets to feel totally sold on their center crop moving forward.
This is a need-ish projected pick, in other words, but it's also a sensible range for Steinbach. The 6'11" freshman is a bully around the basket (and a best-in-the-nation best on the boards), and his flashes of shooting touch (14-of-42 from three, 75.7 percent at the line) offer hope that he'll provide some kind of value away from the interior.
15. Golden State Warriors: Bennett Stirtz, Iowa
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The Warriors are in a tricky spot because they have glaring long-term needs for youth, athleticism, and sky-high potential, but they also have a very pressing itch for more Stephen Curry relief. Wagering that the latter wins out as a draft precedent seems safe, especially if Golden State can't miraculously stumble into an early lottery pick.
Stirtz isn't young (22) or particularly athletic, but he is polished, super-productive, and highly efficient even in a heavy-usage role he wouldn't have to fill in Golden State. Who knows how much passing or defense he'll provide, but he's already an NBA shooter with functional handles and great feel.
16. Miami Heat: Braylon Mullins, UConn
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The Heat have a standing need for spacers after not really replacing Duncan Robinson. And things could really get cramped if they opt to split from Tyler Herro rather than trying to compute the cost of a reasonable contract extension for him.
They have real reasons to take a long look at Mullins, in other words. The 6'6" freshman is a three-point marksman and a master off-ball mover. Even if his skill tree doesn't branch beyond that, it's a valuable archetype.
17. Memphis Grizzlies (via ORL): Christian Anderson, Texas Tech
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If Anderson had any kind of size—and at 6'2", 165 pounds, he unfortunately does not—he'd be getting mocked higher than this. Even in a great draft for lead guards, his numbers jump off the screen: 19.1 points on 48.4/42.4/80 shooting with 7.7 assists against 3.5 turnovers.
That lack of size is a clear worry, though, as he'll be challenged as both a paint-prober and a perimeter stopper. His talent is worth the gamble at some point, though, and Memphis should be taking big swings as a newly minted rebuilder.
18. Oklahoma City Thunder (via PHI): Koa Peat, Arizona
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As a 19-year-old key contributor for a national championship contender, Peat is pretty clearly an NBA player. He plays within himself, provides toughness and activity on the glass, and is a willing and able connective passer.
But it's either hard to set his ceiling or tough to get excited about it. There just aren't many 6'8" forwards exceeding without shooting touch or explosion, although Peat's winning pedigree and willingness to execute his assignment make you want to believe he can break the mold.
19. Toronto Raptors: Labaron Philon Jr., Alabama
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Philon probed the draft waters last year, but his decision to run it back with the Crimson Tide seems like a smart one. His numbers have erupted with a much more featured role, and he has pulled off the tricky task of dramatically upping his output (from 10.6 to 21.5 points) while also improving his efficiency (45.2/31.5/76.7 to 50.7/39.4/78.6).
He has a neon-green light in Tuscaloosa, and there are questions regarding how he'll translate into a lower-usage role. Still, he could be awfully impactful as a part-time playmaker who can catch fire on catch-and-shoot threes and dig in defensively while surrounded by other ball-movers in Toronto.
20. Charlotte Hornets (via PHO): Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
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Another potential 2025 draft pick, Lendeborg extended his college stay and just might be rewarded with a national title for doing so. He helped his draft stock, too, but it hasn't exactly erupted.
There's a really intriguing blend of versatile talents and tools, and then there's also the fact he's a 23-year-old (24 in September) non-center with an iffy outside shot. His versatility should help him carve out a rotation role, but things could get a little dicey on offense if he can't be more consistent from distance.
21. Los Angeles Lakers: Chris Cenac Jr., Houston
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Would Cenac be too much of a project pick for the Purple and Gold? Or would the Lakers welcome the opportunity to potentially mold his tools and talents into something really interesting, considering they'll rarely (if ever) collect an early draft pick as long as Luka Dončić is around.
Speaking of L.A.'s franchise player, his presence could be a big factor in this pick. Because if the Lakers are able to maximize Cenac's potential, they might have an ideal pick-and-roll partner for Luka. Cenac's best version features shooting touch, above-the-rim finishing, and paint protection, or pretty much everything you'd want from a big on a Dončić-centric roster.
22. Denver Nuggets: Dailyn Swain, Texas
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The Nuggets need more defensive protection. And that's true regardless of whether they wind up covering the costs for Peyton Watson's restricted free agency. Even if Watson returns, Denver will need more defensive coverage.
Swain might be perfect to provide that, plus relentless downhill attacking, handling, and connective passing. Hopefully, shooting will be a part of his NBA equation, too; consistent three-point splashing has eluded him throughout his three-year collegiate career.
23. Atlanta Hawks (via CLE): Morez Johnson Jr., Michigan
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As Atlanta continues to repurpose its roster around Jalen Johnson, it feels like defense and tenacity will be core components of its post-Trae Young identity. Johnson provides both in spades.
If you squint, you can see him thriving as a disruptive, physical, switchable defender at this level. His offensive role is admittedly harder to pin down, but you like his physicality and finishing.
24. Detroit Pistons (via MIN): Cameron Carr, Baylor
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Can Carr impact NBA games with anything other than shooting and scoring? Maybe not. Would the Pistons care? Nope.
They remain very much in need of better spacing and more support scoring around MVP candidate Cade Cunningham, and Carr could supply both in impressive doses for someone still on the board. He's netting nearly 19 points a night while shooting better than 50 percent from the field and a shade under 40 percent from range.
25. Philadelphia 76ers (via HOU): Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State
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The Sixers should probably be on the search for a power forward this offseason, and few in the country have played it better than Jefferson.
Critics might see an older, slower prospect without a standout skill, but optimists will covet the kind of versatility that should fit a number of roles. He's been an impact scorer, rebounder, and playmaker for the Cyclones, and his ability to orchestrate offense as a 6'8", 220-pounder is highly compelling.
26. New York Knicks: Amari Allen, Alabama
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Jacks-of-all-trades get a rap. Players should be punished for doing a lot of things at average-or-a-hair-above levels just because they aren't excellent in any specific one?
Allen probably isn't awesome at anything by NBA standards, but his size, shooting, and defensive energy gave him clear three-and-D appeal. And he flashes just enough passing and handling to think he'll offer more creation than the label typically implies.
27. Boston Celtics: Motiejus Krivas, Arizona
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Krivas is a 7'2", 260-pound mauler. He's not super explosive or nimble, nor much of a shooter, but he is so big and skilled around the basket that he usually gets away with it. If the Celtics want to sneak a super-sized defensive anchor into their low-cost center rotation, the numbers say he should probably be their guy.
"No player in the country is better at using his size and verticality at the rim without blocking shots than the big Lithuanian, and the numbers back that up," The Athletic's Sam Vecenie wrote. "When he's on the court, opponents' true-shooting percentage drops all the way to 45.1 percent, versus 55.1 percent when he's off the court. Largely, that's because they take three fewer shots at the rim per 40 minutes and shoot 10.6 percent worse at the rim when he's on the court."
28. Cleveland Cavaliers (via SAS): Tounde Yessoufou, Baylor
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The Cavs seemingly struck gold with Jaylon Tyson, but that shouldn't put their wing search totally in the rearview. Not when they could turn a late first-round pick into one with this caliber of physical gifts.
The tools haven't translated to much beyond physical finishing and dusting bigger defenders, but betting on player development always seems a safe wager for a Kenny Atkinson-coached team. And if Cleveland brought out Yessoufou's best, it could have an energetic, relentless wing rotation forming between its star guards and impact bigs.
29. Minnesota Timberwolves (via DET): Alijah Arenas, USC
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Ayo Dosunmu helped stabilize Minnesota's backcourt some, but the Wolves will continue looking for guards. Maybe their appetite for a gamble is limited after the Rob Dillingham wager went bust, but Arenas wouldn't have the same draft cost but could offer similar (or more) upside.
Granted, it's pretty much all theoretical potential, since his freshman season has been disrupted by injury and unimpressive when he's played. But ceilings don't typically stretch this high this late in the draft. His whole approach lacks polish or any kind of team-friendly direction, but 6'6" shot-makers who are this slippery always intrigue.
30. Dallas Mavericks (via OKC): Ebuka Okorie, Stanford
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There are so many high-quality freshman guards in this draft that it's possible for one (or a few) to slip through the cracks, particularly one who, like Okorie, doesn't offer a ton of size (6'2") or advanced passing (3.6 assists).
At a certain point, though, an 18-year-old who consistently creates advantages and capitalizes on scoring chances is going to stand out. And things are clearly trending that direction with Okorie, whom B/R's Jonathan Wasserman included among his biggest mock draft risers.
"The production and highlights of creativity and shotmaking have remained overwhelmingly consistent and persuasive," Wasserman wrote. "... Even if there are concerns about his size, athleticism, and defensive projection, scouts still see a playmaker who can add value in an offensive spark role."
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