What to Watch for in Each Conference in Last Full Weekend of Men's CBB Regular Season
March Madness begins long before the NCAA tournament starts, and the upcoming weekend in men's college hoops is a fantastic example of that.
For about half of the conferences—including all of the major ones—it will be the final weekend of the regular season, featuring such marquee showdowns as Duke-North Carolina, Florida-Kentucky, and Michigan-Michigan State.
But for 16 of the 31 conferences, the regular season is already over, and it's officially conference tournament season, with the first official ticket punched this Saturday night in the Ohio Valley Conference, followed by four more automatic bids awarded on Sunday.
It's the most confusing time of the year, and we could all probably use a viewing guide of sorts to keep track of what's at stake and when it's happening.
Well, here you go.
Numbers or status in parentheses after each team were their positioning on our overall seed list in our latest bracketology projection as of Tuesday morning.
Atlantic Coast
1 of 7
The Big Kahuna: North Carolina (17) at Duke (1), 6:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Is Caleb Wilson going to return from his fractured left hand for this game? And can North Carolina pull off a season sweep of what is currently projected to be the No. 1 overall seed in the dance?
If so, the Tar Heels figure to climb to a projected NCAA No. 4 seed, maybe even a fringe No. 3 seed in advance of the ACC tournament. If not, go ahead and lock in the Blue Devils as the No. 1 seed in the East Region, regardless of what happens next week.
Bubble Bonanza: SMU (43) at Florida State (N/A), 2 p.m. ET, Saturday
The Seminoles have no realistic hope for an at-large bid, but they have been quite the spoiler lately, upsetting Miami (FL), Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech, and Clemson. And if they have one more trick up their sleeve, it could be a fatal blow for an SMU team that has been staggering toward the cut line for about two months at this point.
Bubble Bonanza, Part Two: Virginia Tech (first team out) at Virginia (16), Noon ET, Saturday
Ever since the New Year's Eve triple-overtime victory over Virginia, Virginia Tech has been like a WWE wrestler in a sleeper hold, gradually fading to the wrong side of the bubble as it loses consciousness. But this game is the referee raising and dropping that arm for a third time before calling the match. Can the Hokies wake up in time to salvage a bid?
One Other Biggie: Louisville (25) at Miami (28), 2 p.m. ET, Saturday
Both teams are lacking in the "marquee wins" department, especially Louisville, whose 0-8 record vs. Quad 1A is really dragging down a resume featuring great metrics and no losses outside of Quad 1. Can Pat Kelsey finally get something that at least looks like a great win, or are the Cardinals going to wear a "lost their nine toughest games" scarlet letter into the ACC tournament?
Big 12
2 of 7
The Big Kahuna: Texas Tech (11) at BYU (27), 10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
This game has been circled ever since that fateful week in which both Richie Saunders and JT Toppin were lost to torn ACLs. Both teams have had some time to show us what they are in their current roster state, and the Red Raiders have thus far shown a whole heck of a lot more good than the Cougars. If that continues, Texas Tech already has a resume worthy of consideration for a No. 3 seed, while BYU—already 4-9 since its 16-1 start—might fall to a No. 10 seed.
Bubble Bonanza: Cincinnati (N/A) at TCU (39), 2 p.m. ET, Saturday
This one got a whole lot more interesting on Tuesday night, with Cincinnati upsetting BYU to climb more legitimately back into the mix, while TCU arguably punched its ticket with a surprising road win over Texas Tech. If the Horned Frogs take care of business at home, we can probably expunge the Bearcats from the list of viable at-large candidates. But if Cincinnati can pull off this road win before doing some more damage in the Big 12 tournament? What a come-from-behind bid this could be.
Bubble Bonanza, Part Two: UCF (26) at West Virginia (fifth team out), 8 p.m. ET, Friday
The predictive metrics have never cared much for UCF, but the Knights are probably safely in the projected field. However, after a loss to Oklahoma State on Tuesday night, we would strongly advise them not to also drop this one. In the opposite corner, even if the Mountaineers were to win, their dream of an at-large bid likely died with the loss to Kansas State.
One Other Biggie: Houston (6) at Oklahoma State (N/A), Noon ET, Saturday
Houston went through quite the meat grinder, with three consecutive losses to Iowa State, Arizona, and Kansas in mid-to-late February, leading many to question whether this team is a legitimate threat to make it back to the national championship game for a second consecutive year. But the Cougars destroyed Colorado on Saturday. They'll probably wreck Baylor Wednesday night. And pummeling Oklahoma State to end the regular season would both reassert Houston as a title contender and squeeze the last bit of life out of the Cowboys' dream of an at-large bid.
Big East
3 of 7
The Big Kahuna: Connecticut (4) at Marquette (N/A), 12:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
The actual Big Kahuna here is the Bubble Bonanza, but let's try to find a few intriguing games in what is likely to be a three-bid league. If the Huskies were to blow this, they can say goodbye to that fourth No. 1 seed. Whether it's Florida or a TBD Big Ten or Big 12 conference tournament champion, someone would eventually leapfrog UConn at that point. But if they win this game and the Big East tournament, there's a good chance Dan Hurley and Co. secure a No. 1.
Bubble Bonanza: St. John's (20) at Seton Hall (N/A), 9 p.m. ET, Friday
Seton Hall's resume is a mess. The Pirates are between 50th and 65th in every metric and have a single win over a KenPom top-60 opponent, upsetting NC State back in the Maui Invitational. They were swept by DePaul and have losses to Butler, Creighton, and USC. But if they were to win this game before also upsetting UConn in the Big East semifinals, maybe there's still a chance here.
One Other Biggie: Butler (N/A) at DePaul (N/A), Noon ET, Saturday
There are no NCAA tournament implications here, but DePaul has won four of its last five, and there is a chance the Blue Demons finish higher than 94th on KenPom for the first time since 2007. Their 8-10 conference record probably says as much about the current state of the Big East as it does the potential for this team to suddenly become nationally relevant again. All the same, a win over Butler would clinch a winning record, just two years after they went 3-29 overall.
Big Ten
4 of 7
The Big Kahuna: Michigan State (7) at Michigan (2), 4:30 p.m. ET, Sunday
Michigan won by a dozen in East Lansing back on Jan. 30. Can Sparty return the favor amid a strong finish to the season?
Since appearing at No. 14 in the Top 16 reveal, Michigan State has won at Purdue and driven a spike into the bubble hearts of both Ohio State and Indiana. A road win over Michigan would just about cement Michigan State as (no worse than) a No. 2 seed. But the Wolverines still have their sights set on No. 1 overall and would love nothing more than to sweep their rivals during the regular season for the first time since 2014.
Bubble Bonanza: Indiana (fourth team out) at Ohio State (41), 5:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
If both of these teams take care of business on Wednesday—Ohio State at Penn State; Indiana vs. Minnesota—this game may well determine which one enters the Big Ten tournament projected for the NCAA tournament. If it's Indiana getting a road win, the Hoosiers and Buckeyes might be last team in and first team out, respectively, with seven days left until Selection Sunday. If Ohio State wins, though, it would become a near-lock while Indiana's case for a bid would be near death.
One Other Biggie: Iowa (34) at Nebraska (10), 5 p.m. ET, Sunday
There's also a big Wisconsin-Purdue game on Saturday worth mentioning, but this one feels bigger, as both a chance for Nebraska to prove it deserves a No. 2 or No. 3 seed and a chance for Iowa to remove itself from any possible bubble drama, should it lose its Big Ten tournament opener to a bottom-feeder. Either way, here's hoping it's a little more entertaining than the 57-52 game these teams played two weeks ago.
Southeastern
5 of 7
The Big Kahuna: Florida (5) at Kentucky (21), 4 p.m. ET, Saturday
Since the hiccup at home against Auburn on Jan. 24, Florida has decimated everything in its path, including never trailing in its home win over Kentucky on Valentine's Day. Ending the regular season with a win in Rupp Arena would be quite the cherry on what the Gators hope is a No. 1 seed sundae. Then again, "at Kentucky" was one of the four L's on Florida's championship resume last year.
Bubble Bonanza: Auburn (second team out) at Alabama (13), 8:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Alabama has a chance to effectively put an end to its arch rival's case for an at-large bid while simultaneously enhancing its own argument for a No. 3 seed. But if Auburn pulls off the upset to finish the regular season at 17-14 with road wins over Florida and Alabama, a neutral win over St. John's, and home wins over Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas, and NC State, it's probably going dancing.
Bubble Bonanza, Part Two: Texas A&M (40) at LSU (N/A), 6 p.m. ET, Saturday
Since starting 17-4 with road wins over Georgia, Texas, and Auburn, Texas A&M had been leaking oil, dropping seven consecutive games against opponents that will likely make the NCAA tournament, prior to smoking Kentucky on Tuesday night. What the Aggies have managed to avoid, though, is a bad loss to a team with no real case for a bid. A win probably seals the deal, but a loss to the Tigers would leave the Aggies in some bubble trouble.
One Other Biggie: Vanderbilt (19) at Tennessee (22), 2 p.m. ET, Saturday
These teams just squared off about 10 days ago, with the Volunteers pulling off the road upset in a game that was close throughout. Can the Commodores return the favor to re-enter the conversation for a No. 4 seed? Or does Tennessee finish off the sweep for its ninth win over a team at least in the mix for an at-large bid?
Plausible Multi-Bid Mid-Majors
6 of 7
Atlantic 10
Saint Louis (33) at George Mason (N/A), 4 p.m. ET, Saturday
VCU (45) at Dayton (N/A), 7 p.m. ET, Friday
You couldn't ask for a much tougher conclusion to the regular-season portion of the A-10's quest for two bids. Dayton just pummeled Saint Louis on Feb. 21 and could deliver a knockout blow to VCU. And though George Mason has been floundering for more than a month, the Patriots aren't just going to roll over and die at home against the Billikens.
Should both road teams win, though, lock in SLU beyond any shadow of a doubt, and VCU would get a considerable resume boost from a borderline Q1/Q2 victory.
Mid-American
Miami-Ohio (38) at Ohio (N/A), 9 p.m. ET, Friday
Can the RedHawks finish the fight and get to 31-0? And can we stop arguing about whether they deserve to dance if they do so?
Mountain West
New Mexico (44) at Utah State (32), 4 p.m. ET, Saturday
San Diego State (third team out) at UNLV (N/A), 10 p.m. ET, Friday
The Aztecs are probably already toast after losing to Boise State on Tuesday, but they simply cannot afford to lose that game against the Rebels. A win doesn't do much to help them, but a loss puts them in "auto bid or bust" territory, if they aren't already there.
If New Mexico wins the home game against Colorado State on Wednesday night before losing at Utah State on Saturday, the Lobos will enter the Mountain West tournament as bubbly as champagne.
Also, are we positive Utah State is safely in? All the metrics are great, but the Aggies' best wins were against New Mexico, San Diego State, and VCU, and they have been swept by a UNLV team that is otherwise 14-14 on the year. If they lose this game, they had better at least show up for the Mountain West tournament.
West Coast
Santa Clara (46) in quarterfinals on Sunday
Gonzaga (15) and Saint Mary's (23) in semifinals on Monday
The expectation is that we'll get Round 3 of Broncos-Gaels in the WCC semifinals, with Santa Clara almost certainly needing to win that game in order to present a compelling case for a bid.
Winner of that one figures to draw Gonzaga on Tuesday night for a chance to remove all doubt by securing the automatic ticket.
One-Bid Leagues with Championship Games This Weekend
7 of 7
Ohio Valley (9 p.m. ET, Saturday on ESPN2)
The first ticket officially punched may well go to a No. 16 seed, as every team in the Ohio Valley ranks outside the KenPom top 200. But if first-year head coach Nolan Smith can lead OVC No. 1 seed Tennessee State to the dance, he does have a dynamic duo of 17 PPG scorers in Aaron Nkrumah and Travis Harper II. It could be a fun, upset-minded, up-tempo team.
Big South (Noon ET, Sunday on ESPN2)
If anyone other than 27-4 High Point wins this one, it will be a stunner. Winthrop was the Big South's second-best team during the regular season, handing High Point its only loss in conference play. But Winthrop big man and Big South Player of the Year Logan Duncomb suffered a foot injury last week and might not be available for the tournament.
Missouri Valley (Noon ET, Sunday on CBS)
Arch Madness always delivers, and any of the top eight teams in the MVC tentatively could win this thing. Belmont is the team to beat, though, leading the nation in effective field-goal percentage and stroking threes like never before in program history. This is easily the best the Bruins have been since the end of Rick Byrd's tenure in 2019, and all fans of prospective No. 5 seeds better be rooting against Belmont. It would be a very dangerous No. 12 seed.
Atlantic Sun (2 p.m. ET, Sunday on ESPN2)
Because it is still in the transitional period from D-II to D-I, No. 6 seed West Georgia is ineligible for the NCAA tournament. However, the Wolves will be playing in the A-Sun tournament. And if they win it, the automatic bid goes to regular season champion Central Arkansas. If it happens, it wouldn't even be the first time in A-Sun history. Ineligible Bellarmine won in 2022, so regular-season champion Jacksonville State got a bid on a technicality. (This scenario is also in play in the NEC tournament, where both Le Moyne and Mercyhurst are ineligible.)
Summit League (9 p.m. ET, Sunday on CBS Sports)
Speaking of tournament eligibility, St. Thomas is allowed into the big dance for the first time and ended up with the No. 2 seed in this conference tournament. It probably will be the Tommies running up against North Dakota State in the championship game, and St. Thomas just beat the Bison by 22 a week ago. Can they do it again?
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