Final MLB Trade Predictions for 2026 Deadline Day
It's deadline day for Major League Baseball, and time is running out. Teams only have until 6:00 p.m. ET to make trades, and then that's it until the winter.
So, let's take one last crack at predicting what will happen.
With Tarik Skubal having been traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, the biggest name on the board is already spoken for. Yet whereas that was becoming more and more predictable, there's otherwise loads of uncertainty surrounding the best players on the market.
That's what we're going to try to make sense of with the following eight predictions. They touch on who won't move, who will, and where players will be when the dust settles.
Mason Miller Will Stay with the San Diego Padres
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Confidence Level: 90%
If you were in charge of a team that's just 1.0 game out in the NL wild-card race, would you trade the best closer in baseball?
Where this is merely a difficult question for the rest of us, it's the reality of the situation for Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. And the general sentiment now is that he'll hold onto Miller, with ESPN's Alden Gonzalez reporting Friday that some teams haven't even bothered to check in.
It was only last year that Preller traded Leo De Vries—currently MLB's No. 2 prospect for Joel Reuter of B/R—to get Miller. The righty is even hotter now than he was then, so you can just imagine what Preller's asking price is like.
What Could Go Wrong
Hey, all it takes is one team with the right assets to make the Padres an offer they can't refuse.
To this end, one is keeping a suspicious eye on the Seattle Mariners. They could still use Miller even after acquiring Seranthony Domínguez on Saturday, and they have both the controllable starters and the prospects to entice San Diego.
The Chicago Cubs Will Pivot to a Seattle Mariners Pitcher
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Confidence Level: 15%
Apropos of what the Mariners could do next, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported Saturday that they "will still engage" with teams on other starters even after moving Luis Castillo to the Chicago White Sox.
That specifically means George Kirby or Emerson Hancock, both of whom loom larger on the starting pitching landscape after the Tarik Skubal trade. Interested parties just shouldn't expect to get either for prospects, as the Mariners should only trade either righty if it means boosting an offense that's down bad.
After effectively swapping out Jameson Taillon for Kevin Gausman on Sunday, this is what makes the Cubs an interesting match for the Mariners. If they offered Seattle a package of Seiya Suzuki, Matt Shaw and more for Kirby or Hancock, it could be hard for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to say no.
What Could Go Wrong
If neither Kirby nor Hancock gets traded to the Cubs, it could be because the Mariners decide they would just as soon keep both of them.
The Castillo trade didn't just bring back a usable reliever. It also cut the worst starter from Seattle's rotation, thus clearing the way for top prospect Kade Anderson. With that done, moving another starter hardly feels like a necessity.
The Tampa Bay Rays Will Pivot to Luis Arraez
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Confidence Level: 80%
The Rays were in on Tarik Skubal, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, but were ultimately too risk-averse to pull off a deal. They instead ended up with Freddy Peralta in a deal with the New York Mets on Sunday.
As the owners of the best record in the American League, the Rays can't just sit back and do nothing else. And according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Rays are the "heavy favorite" to end up with Luis Arraez.
He would be perfect both for their hole at second base and their unique brand of chaos ball, as he'd be another low-strikeout hitter for an offense that thrives on putting the ball in play.
What Could Go Wrong
Arraez is a pending free agent, so the question here isn't so much whether the Giants will end up keeping him. It's more so whether another team could be more aggressive for him.
There aren't many candidates out there, honestly. Maybe the Texas Rangers, but only if they buy. According to another report from Rosenthal, selling was on the table even before the Houston Astros completed a sweep in Houston on Sunday.
The Atlanta Braves Will Pivot to Casey Mize
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Confidence Level: 30%
The Braves are another team that was interested in Tarik Skubal, and Tyler Mahle just doesn't cut it as a Plan B. They'll need to do a lot better if they want Chris Sale to have a proper co-ace.
So why Casey Mize? Well, he just makes sense.
The Braves have had their eye on the former No. 1 pick, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. And if they had also been eyeing Skubal, then they presumably know the Detroit Tigers and their wants well enough. And more so than with Skubal, the wants for Mize may align better with Atlanta's No. 26 farm system.
What Could Go Wrong
If the Tigers were willing to trade Skubal, then they'll surely also be willing to trade Mize with his own post-2026 free agency timeline winding down. So, that's not the issue here.
Rather, the relative weakness of the Braves' farm system could be the issue. Teams like the Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks have also been connected to Mize, and each has greater prospect riches to offer the Tigers.
The Milwaukee Brewers Will Pivot to a Clay Holmes-Luke Weaver Package
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Confidence Level: 20%
The Brewers should have been the team to trade for Tarik Skubal. Instead, they've already missed out on him and old friend Freddy Peralta. Bang up job, guys.
There's still time to save face, including with the trade for Luke Weaver that the club is reportedly interested in, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. If Mason Miller is off the table, Weaver might be the best righty reliever anyone can acquire.
But since Milwaukee also still needs a starter, why not angle for Clay Holmes to come with Weaver? He was terrific before he broke his leg on a comebacker in May, and he has the kind of stuff that would make for a nice pairing with Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski.
What Could Go Wrong
Per Rosenthal, the Brewers were willing to take on Skubal's remaining salary in a trade with the Detroit Tigers. That would have meant a $9.4 million expense, which is not pennies by their standards.
Well, a Weaver-Holmes package would add $17.1 million in remaining salary to Milwaukee's books. That's close to twice as much as they would have had to pay Skubal, and one can imagine them balking at the idea even if it meant adding two much-needed pitching upgrades.
The New York Yankees Will Also Land Iván Herrera
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Confidence Level: 50%
The Yankees also popped up in Tarik Skubal rumors, but it's not the end of the world that they didn't get him. They were able to score Luis García Jr. on Sunday, and they still have a shot at getting the righty-hitting catcher they seek.
To this end, their outlook has unfortunately taken a turn for the worse. Ryan Jeffers no longer looks like a target with the Minnesota Twins back in contention. Shea Langeliers is hurt. Hunter Goodman may be too pricey even if the Yankees talk themselves into liking his defense.
Fortunately, Iván Herrera represents a happy medium. He's more of a part-time catcher than a full-timer, and his splits against lefties (.817 OPS) cast him as a suitable platoon partner for Austin Wells.
What Could Go Wrong
The Yankees have checked in on Herrera, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN. But that also goes for the Boston Red Sox, who have a stronger need for a potent right-handed bat.
It also wouldn't be surprising if the St. Louis Cardinals drove too hard of a bargain for Herrera to actually go anywhere. He's under club control through 2029, and this year has revealed the Cardinals to be closer to contention than expected.
Adley Rutschman Will Be the Best Catcher to Actually Go
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Confidence Level: 40%
Even if Iván Herrera does go to the Yankees, that wouldn't necessarily make him the top catching prize of the deadline. Because Adley Rutschman could also go.
Reporting from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com strongly indicates that the Baltimore Orioles have made their former No. 1 pick available. And the interest is there, as "several" clubs have reached out about him.
Those could include the Yankees and Red Sox, but we'll go slightly off-board here and pick the Chicago White Sox as Rutschman's eventual landing spot. The -1.6 rWAR they've gotten from their catchers is by far the worst such mark in MLB. And after the Luis Castillo trade, it seems as if they're ready to aim high.
What Could Go Wrong
This prediction could get upended in one of two ways, starting with the possibility that the Colorado Rockies move Hunter Goodman. Even if he comes with defensive questions, his bat is as powerful as they come.
Beyond that, the Orioles don't need to move Rutschman. He's under their control through 2027, and this season has proved that he and Samuel Basallo can coexist as a catching tandem.
Zach Neto Will Be Best Shortstop to Actually Go
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Confidence Level: 20%
It's been Shortstop Mania on the rumor mill. Elly De La Cruz's name has popped up. Ditto for Jeremy Peña, CJ Abrams and Otto Lopez. And was that Bobby Witt Jr.'s name we saw? Madness.
Well, suffice it to say that those names check numerous boxes as guys who'll be hard to pry loose. And to be clear, Zach Neto does too. But one difference with him is that the Los Angeles Angels are clearly open for business. Another is that there's a good argument that his trade value is as high now as it's going to get.
The Red Sox ought to be the team to beat for Neto. They view him as a "strong fit," according to Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic, and you can imagine one of Franklin Arias and Anthony Eyanson being on the table for the Angels.
What Could Go Wrong
"I can see the Angels moving the arms [Reid Detmers and José Soriano], but not Neto," said one American League executive to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
If so, this prediction is clearly going against the grain. And we should arguably know better just in general. If Angels owner Arte Moreno is known for anything, it's for not being able to part with star players in trades.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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