Predicting Every NFL Team's Starting Quarterback in 2026

The quarterback carousel has become a yearly tradition that brings twists, turns, and stunning surprises to the NFL landscape. While the 2026 draft class isn't loaded at the quarterback position, things will be no different this year.

In fact, we may see some bigger surprises in free agency than usual due to the lack of premier rookie prospects and the recent resurgence of veterans like Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones.

The Seattle Seahawks, after all, just won Super Bowl LX with Darnold, who was still considered a bust just two years ago.

With free agency set to begin with the legal-contact window on March 9, now's the perfect time to forecast how things will look when the 2026 QB carousel finally grinds to a halt.

Here, you'll find early predictions for every team's Week 1 starter, beginning with a quick rundown of obvious starters.

Teams With Established Starters

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Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson

The Baltimore Ravens are trying to work out another extension with the two-time MVP. Lamar Jackson shouldn't be going anywhere any time soon.

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen

Josh Allen played poorly enough in the playoffs to get his head coach fired, but he's still the best player on the Buffalo Bills' roster by a large margin.

Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young

Bryce Young hasn't proven himself to be a franchise quarterback yet, but he just led the Carolina Panthers to an NFC South title and will get another year of full support.

Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson are shaping up to be the NFL's next special QB-coach tandem. We'll soon see how they, and the Chicago Bears, deal with high expectations.

Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow

Time will tell if the Cincinnati Bengals will actually put a playoff-caliber roster around Joe Burrow. However, they'll have no shot at the postseason without him.

Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott might not deserve to be the league's highest-paid quarterback, but he's in the upper tier, and he'll remain the Dallas Cowboys' starter for the foreseeable future.

Detroit Lions: Jared Goff

It feels like the Detroit Lions' Super Bowl window is closing, but until it's shut, Jared Goff will remain the unquestioned starter.

Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love

In three years as the Green Bay Packers' starter, Jordan Love has helped to deliver three playoff berths.

Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud's future with the Houston Texans is less secure than it once was. However, he'll get another chance to show whether he can recapture his rookie Pro Bowl form.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence finally looked and played like the "can't miss" QB prospect he was expected to be. The Jacksonville Jaguars won't reverse course now.

Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert played well enough last season to earn a surprising MVP vote. The rest of the Los Angeles Chargers' supporting cast needs some work, but the arrival of new OC Mike McDaniel might help Herbert become an actual MVP candidate.

Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford has already said that he'll return for the 2026 season. We can only assume he'll be back with the Los Angeles Rams as well.

New England Patriots: Drake Maye

Drake Maye played poorly enough in the postseason to cool the talk of him being the next big thing. However, the New England Patriots' star played well enough in the regular season to push Stafford for league MVP.

New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough

Tyler Shough didn't draw a lot of attention with the New Orleans Saints this past season, but he was arguably the best rookie quarterback in the league.

New York Giants: Jaxson Dart

New York Giants head coach told NFL Network that meeting Jaxson Dart had him ready to "run through a brick wall." We'll see if Harbaugh can convince Dart to stop running directly into defenders.

Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts

The Philadelphia Eagles' offense took a step back in 2025. That doesn't change the fact that Jalen Hurts is a three-time Pro Bowler and a Super Bowl MVP.

San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy

Mac Jones played extremely well when Brock Purdy was injured last season, but not well enough to create an actual San Francisco 49ers QB controversy.

Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold

As previously mentioned, Sam Darnold just helped Seattle win the Super Bowl. The question now is whether he can help them repeat.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield

2025 was a down year for Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In three seasons as Tampa's starter, though, Mayfield has appeared in two Pro Bowls and has delivered two division titles.

Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward

Cam Ward had a forgettable rookie season for the Tennessee Titans, but he was the top pick in last year's draft and will get a lengthy runway to try to reach his ceiling.

Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels had an injury-plagued sophomore campaign, but the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year should be back under center for the Washington Commanders by Week 1.

Teams With Injury Uncertainty

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Broncos QB Bo Nix

Atlanta Falcons: Joe Flacco

Third-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is still on the Atlanta Falcons roster, but he has yet to establish himself as a reliable starter and is coming off a torn ACL. The Falcons will likely need an early season starter and veteran insurance policy, and they may be looking for more than that.

"It's not just going to be a warm body, veteran-minimum type guy, I can promise you that," one source told Jason La Canfora of SportsBoom.

With Kirk Cousins set to be released on March 11, Atlanta will probably dip into the free-agent pool.

The prediction here is that they scoop up Joe Flacco, who has twice worked with new head coach Kevin Stefanski and who made the Pro Bowl as an alternate this past season.

Denver Broncos: Bo Nix

Third-year quarterback Bo Nix will be the Denver Broncos' starter if he's healthy by Week 1. The Oregon product has been well above average for Denver and might have carried the Broncos into the Super Bowl if he hadn't suffered a fractured ankle in the divisional round.

Nix underwent successful surgery in January, and he's expected to return by minicamp, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport. There's little reason to believe he won't be at 100 percent by September.

Should Nix suffer a setback in his recovery, though, Denver will likely turn to Jarrett Stidham. Sean Payton trusted him enough to start the AFC title game, and the Broncos have him signed through 2026.

Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones

According to The Athletic's James Boyd, the Indianapolis Colts are all-in on bringing back Daniel Jones. Whether they sign him to an extension or resort to letting him play on the franchise tag, the Colts will turn to Jones whenever he's healthy.

However, Jones may not be healthy by Week 1, having suffered a torn Achilles in Week 14. Jones has said that he expects to be ready to return by training camp. If he is, he'll be behind center for Indianapolis.

The bigger unknown is what will happen if Jones' recovery lasts into the regular season. 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson Sr. is still on the roster, but the Colts seem ready to turn the page on him entirely—they reportedly gave him permission to seek a trade this past week.

If Jones can't go by Week 1, expect 2025 sixth-round pick Riley Leonard to get the nod.

Kansas City Chiefs: Gardner Minshew

Obviously, Patrick Mahomes will be the Kansas City Chiefs' starter whenever he's healthy. However, Mahomes suffered a torn ACL in mid-December, which complicates his outlook for Week 1. The two-time MVP is pushing to be ready for the opener.

"Obviously, I want to be ready for Week 1. The doctor said I could be," Mahomes said, per Matt McMullen of the team's official website.

The prediction here, though, is that the Chiefs refuse to rush Mahomes' return, instead bringing back Gardner Minshew as insurance and to start early in the season if necessary. Minshew saw limited time in 2025 before suffering his own knee injury, but Andy Reid and Co. have already trusted him to be Mahomes' understudy once.

Arizona Cardinals: Jacoby Brissett

AP Photo/Jessie Alcheh

Jacoby Brissett

The Arizona Cardinals may or may not jump onto the quarterback carousel this offseason. They have 2019 first overall pick Kyler Murray under contract through 2027, with a club option for 2028. However, the Oklahoma product has never delivered a playoff win and has largely underwhelmed over the past four seasons.

Arizona's offense was markedly better this past season when Murray was sidelined by a foot injury and Jacoby Brissett was starting instead.

New head coach Mike LaFleur could try to resurrect Murray's career, while the Cardinals stick with their current QB room of Murray, Brissett, and Kedon Slovis. They could also consider external replacements.

"I'd say all options are on the table for us," Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort told reporters this past week at the scouting combine.

If Arizona decides to move off of Murray, it will want to do so soon. Trading him would save $34.7 million in cap space. If the Cardinals are forced to release the 28-year-old, though, sooner will be better. Cutting Murray after March 15 will cause the dead-money hit to jump from $54.7 million to $77.3 million.

The prediction here is that the Cardinals find some way to move off of Murray while adding a second-tier draft prospect like Alabama's Ty Simpson or LSU's Garrett Nussmeier in the draft. However, they'll lean on Brissett, who had a 94.1 QB rating in 2025, for most or all of next season.

Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Shedeur Sanders

The Cleveland Browns have a new head coach in Todd Monken, and he'll oversee another quarterback competition this summer. General manager Andrew Berry recently said as much, while confirming that Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel will all have a shot at the job.

"We don't have to make that decision anytime soon," Berry said, per ESPN's Daniel Oyefusi. "I think any player that we have in that room we would expect to compete to earn a role.

In an ideal world, Cleveland would add a more proven veteran to the mix—be it a free agent like Malik Willis or a reclamation project like Murray. Sanders and Gabriel both struggled as rookies last year, and Watson hasn't been a functional starter since his 2020 campaign in Houston.

The problem is that the Browns are facing a $6.5 million cap deficit. They probably can't chase a top-tier free agent or afford to trade for a quarterback on an expensive contract. And if they do find a way to add a starting-caliber veteran, they probably won't have the money left over to improve one of the league's worst offensive rosters.

It would make more sense for Cleveland to use its assets to bolster its lackluster receiving corps and offensive line, allowing an incumbent QB to start in 2025 before reevaluating the quarterback market in 2026.

The prediction here is that Sanders wins Cleveland's competition almost by default. He has a higher physical ceiling than Gabriel, and he's likely to have a longer NFL future than Watson.

Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza

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Fernando Mendoza

At this point, it certainly feels like the Las Vegas Raiders' drafting of Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is merely a formality. The reigning Heisman winner is the only quarterback prospect who has received a first-round grade from the Bleacher Report Scouting Department, and the QB-needy Raiders own the No. 1 overall pick.

However, there's always a chance that something wacky happens during the predraft process. GM John Spytek told reporters at the scouting combine that he's "always listening" to trade offers. Though it seems unlikely, the Raiders could also sour on Mendoza at some point between interviews and workouts.

If Las Vegas does draft Mendoza, as expected, there's also no guarantee that he'll be the Week 1 starter. The Raiders didn't have a good overall roster in 2025, and they could allow Geno Smith or Aidan O'Connell to take the early season lumps—something the Patriots did with Brissett during Maye's rookie season.

O'Connell is the more logical bridge option, as cutting Smith before March 13, though, will save $8 million in cap space.

However, the prediction here is that Spytek and new head coach Klint Kubiak only become more sold on Mendoza in the coming weeks. He'll be the pick at No. 1, and he has all the tools needed to be a Week 1 starter.

"Mendoza has the build of a traditional pocket passer and a polished passing skill set that translates well to the NFL," Dame Parson of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "He excels as a quick post-snap processor and quick decision-maker with the football."

With $87.9 million in projected cap space, Las Vegas should also be able to upgrade Mendoza's future supporting cast quickly by adding more talent alongside centerpiece players Brock Bowers, Kolton Miller, and Ashton Jeanty.

Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis

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Malik Willis

Assuming the Colts do retain Jones, Packers backup Malik Willis will become the unquestioned top quarterback on the free agent market. The 26-year-old has a limited resume (six starts) but was superb (134.6 QB rating) when given the opportunity to play in Green Bay.

Willis is currently the 18th-ranked player on Bleacher Report's post-Super Bowl free agent big board. Quarterback-needy teams may already have him at the top of their wish lists.

"I think I'd be lying to you—any team that is in a needy QB situation, if they tell you they're not talking about Malik Willis, that would be a lie," Miami Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan told reporters at the scouting combine.

Miami happens to feel like a very logical landing spot for Willis, if Sullivan can make a deal work financially. The Dolphins appear ready to move on from Tua Tagovailoa, but releasing him will cost $99.2 million in dead money, and they're already facing a $3.8 million cap deficit.

If the Dolphins release Tagovailoa with a post-June 1 designation, they'll only cost themselves another $11.1 million in 2026 cap space. With some savvy cuts and contract management, signing Willis could be feasible. Money matters aside, it would make perfect sense.

Sullivan and new head coach Jeff Hafley both came to Miami from Green Bay this offseason. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, meanwhile, rose through the NFL ranks under Kyle Shanahan, as did Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Sullivan, Hafley, and Slowik should know exactly how to set up Willis for success as a long-term starter.

Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins

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Kirk Cousins

Two years ago, the Minnesota Vikings won 14 games with Darnold at quarterback. Despite having a nearly identical supporting cast and returning head coach Kevin O'Connell in 2025, Minnesota won just nine games and missed the playoffs.

A big part of the issue last year was the play and health of 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. The Michigan product missed his entire rookie campaign following knee surgery, battled more injuries last season, and played inconsistently even when healthy.

Minnesota has since admitted that McCarthy isn't the reliable option it needs right now.

"What we do know is we need a level of baseline quarterback play for us to be effective," executive vice president of football operations Rob Brzezinski said, per Ben Goessling of The Minnesota Star Tribune. "A lot of this is, has been J.J. in an unfortunate [situation] with some of the injuries and things that he's dealt with. But we're going to explore every opportunity."

The Vikings won't (and shouldn't) give up on McCarthy after only 10 starts. However, they appear determined to bring in a veteran who can provide a chance of postseason success as McCarthy continues developing. If Cousins is released by Atlanta, as expected, he's the perfect candidate.

The 37-year-old earned three of his four career Pro Bowl nods in Minnesota and went 13-4 as the starter under O'Connell in 2022. While Cousins may prefer more long-term job security than the Vikings can provide—unless they do decide to end the McCarthy experiment outright—he simply might not be able to find it at this point in his career.

New York Jets: Kyler Murray

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Kyler Murray

The New York Jets have tried all sorts of approaches to their quarterback problem in recent years. They've used first-round draft picks on Darnold and Zach Wilson. They traded for Aaron Rodgers, and they signed 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields as a free agent. None of the darts they've thrown at the position have landed.

This year, the Jets have the second overall pick in the draft and a projected $77 million in cap space. Unfortunately, there isn't a QB prospect worth taking second overall, and New York may struggle to convince a coveted veteran like Willis to join the organization.

The Jets may take a flier on a prospect like Simpson, Nussmeier, or Miami's Carson Beck later in the draft and hope for the best. They may also be the only team desperate enough to trade for Murray or Tagovailoa this offseason.

New York's first season under head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey did not go well. If the Jets don't turn things around in a hurry, both could be out of a job by 2027.

The Jets may or may not move on from Fields, though he's probably done as New York's starter.

"I assume they'll look into a possible trade," NFL Media's Ian Rapoport told Eric Allen about Fields of the Jets' official website (h/t Patrick McAvoy of SI.com).

The prediction here is that after evaluating all options, the Jets make a move for Murray.

The Jets have gotten a good look at Tagovailoa, his injury history, and his physical limitations while battling the Dolphins in the AFC East. Adding Murray would involve less risk, and he'd give Glenn another dual-threat quarterback like he had in Fields and Tyrod Taylor this past season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers

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Aaron Rodgers

Mason Rudolph probably isn't the Pittsburgh Steelers' future, though, he's a solid backup/bridge option if all else fails. Pittsburgh may give 2025 sixth-round pick Will Howard a role in an offseason QB competition, but it should consider adding a rookie prospect like Simpson or Beck early in the draft, too.

Making a run at Willis in free agency would also be sensible. However, it feels like if the Steelers turn to a veteran for the 2026 season, it will be Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers, who turned 42 in December, played well enough this past season to deliver an AFC North title. That happened under longtime head coach Mike Tomlin, who stepped down after the season, but new head coach Mike McCarthy has his own history with Rodgers.

McCarthy and Rodgers won Super Bowl XLV together with the Packers.

Now, Rodgers is likely to weigh retirement, as he did last offseason. However, there's a more-than-reasonable chance that he chooses to play in 2026 and opts to do so in Pittsburgh.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Rodgers is "more likely than not" to re-sign with the Steelers this offseason.

When it comes to Pittsburgh's long-term quarterback outlook, Rodgers can't possibly be Plan A. However, bringing him back as another one-year rental would make plenty of sense if the Steelers plan to develop Howard or draft a quarterback this year.

One could argue that the Steelers should embrace a losing season and target the promising 2027 quarterback class. However, franchise owner Art Rooney II has made it clear that he isn't interested in rebuilding.

"Not sure why you waste a year of your life not trying to contend," Rooney said, per ESPN's Brooke Pryor.

For now, all signs point to Pittsburgh trying to contend again with Rodgers.

*Cap and contract information from Spotrac.