2026 March Madness Title Odds for Top Contenders Entering March
Ready or not, March (Madness) is just around the corner, the most glorious month of the year, beginning this Sunday.
While we won't get a bracket for the men's 2026 NCAA tournament for another couple of weeks, you can bet on the national champion today. Those lines have been out since last April, although they sure have changed over the past 10 months.
Today, we're going to take a look at all of the current top candidates to win it all. All told, we'll give you title odds for 18 teams here, broken into buckets in such a way that we can count down to the favorites.
The first six-team bucket of long shots won't be comprised of "top contenders," but what's the point of talking title odds if not throwing a few darts, eh?
Beyond that, we'll touch on each of the 12 teams atop the current consensus odds (per Vegas Insider) to win it all, as of Wednesday morning.
6 Long Shots (+5000 or Worse) Worth Mentioning
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We won't cover every moderately intriguing team here. For instance, Alabama at around +5800, Tennessee at +6100, Louisville at +6700, Wisconsin at +10750, and Saint Louis at north of +13000 all catch the eye. However, we're keeping the list to just six, and they narrowly miss the cut.
St. John's Red Storm (+5250)
The Johnnies had no great nonconference wins before beating up on a weak Big East, so one can appreciate the notion that this team is a paper tiger. But let's not forget that Rick Pitino is the coach here, and that some early growing pains were always likely with a roster devoid of a true point guard. They've really rounded into form since making Dillon Mitchell more of a focal point in early January, and they could win it all.
Vanderbilt Commodores (+7600)
As of Wednesday morning, here was the list of teams that ranked in the top 20 on KenPom in both offensive and defensive efficiency: Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Florida, Iowa State, Houston, and Vanderbilt. That's six teams with +1450 odds or better...and Vanderbilt at north of +7500. Yes, the 'Dores have lost six of 11, and there was a reluctance to buy into Vanderbilt's 16-0 start, perhaps mostly just because it's Vanderbilt. But the metrics still suggest this team is way more of a contender than the title odds do.
North Carolina Tar Heels (+8833)
The Tar Heels have spent the entire season hovering in the Nos. 21-35 range on KenPom, and this line reflects that. But Caleb Wilson should be back for the regular season finale, at which point they'll once again have the talent necessary to hang with any foe. UNC has already beaten Duke, Kansas, and Kentucky, plus scored a road win over Virginia. This line probably should be more like +6000.
BYU Cougars (+9167)
You are familiar with AJ Dybantsa's work, yes? Even if you want to throw out anything that BYU did with a healthy Richie Saunders, this team still beat Iowa State and put up a solid fight at Arizona without him. Granted, we've seen plenty of examples over the years where a team loses a key player, bands together for an impressive showing or two without him, but then fades down to where they arguably belong at less than full strength. Time will tell if that's also the case here. But simply betting on Dybantsa as this year's Kemba Walker at consensus 92-1 odds ain't a bad play.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+12167)
TTU's title odds plummeted the instant we got the news of JT Toppin's torn ACL. But did the market over-correct here, basically throwing in the towel on a team that still has Christian Anderson at point guard and Grant McCasland coaching? Because they had no problem with Kansas State or Cincinnati over the past week. The Red Raiders' floor is surely much lower without Toppin, but they could still be a problem.
Miami-Ohio RedHawks (+40833)
Got to at least mention the nation's last remaining unbeaten, right? You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who honestly believes the RedHawks could win it all, evidenced by the fact that there are teams like Ohio State and San Diego State with better title odds despite currently residing on the wrong side of the bubble. But who saw Loyola-Chicago's Final Four run coming in 2018? Or Florida Atlantic in 2023? It would be fantastic if this team silenced all the "we'll never see a Cinderella again because of NIL" nonsense by running the table.
5 Hopeful First-Timers
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The big three of Michigan, Duke, and Arizona have each won at least one national championship in the past, but there are five programs currently among the top 12 in title odds who are seeking their first trophy.
Houston Cougars (+908)
After three consecutive losses to Iowa State, Arizona, and Kansas, the Houston vibes are about as low as they've been in at least a few years.
This begs the question: Do the Cougars just not have it this year, or is this a golden buy-low opportunity?
More than anything, it probably hinges on Milos Uzan. The lead guard of last year's run to the title game had a quick seven points on Monday night against Kansas, but he was completely shut out the rest of the way as a seven-point lead devolved into a 13-point loss.
It can't just be Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp, and tough defense. The ceiling remains a championship if Uzan can turn things around.
Illinois Fighting Illini (+1167)
Illinois has the most efficient offense in the nation, and it's not particularly close.
The last time this team lost in regulation was back in mid-December, in a three-point game against then-undefeated Nebraska. And the only time they've been somewhat convincingly beaten was a "neutral" game against UConn in Madison Square Garden, on an afternoon-after-Thanksgiving where Keaton Wagler played 14 minutes and scored three points.
They host Michigan on Friday. There's a decent chance they'll win that game. And if they do, best of luck finding the Illini listed at longer than +1000 again this season. They arguably already should have the fourth-best odds.
Iowa State Cyclones (+1450)
Iowa State has been untouchable at Hilton Coliseum, which isn't exactly a new development this year. But for more than a month, they've been unable to muster much of anything on offense when playing on the road against an opponent with a tournament pulse.
If that's your big concern, though, let's not forget the Cyclones went undefeated in the Players Era Festival before also winning by 23 at Purdue. And they've got big-time opportunities to rewrite that narrative in the coming weeks, between the game at Arizona on Monday and the Big 12 tournament.
You're not going to get much better than +1450 on a possible No. 1 seed.
Purdue Boilermakers (+2583)
The preseason favorite to win it all hasn't lived up to the hype, but is also very much still in the mix among the title contenders. Honestly, this line feels a bit disrespectful.
Terrible defense in the home losses to Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa State were concerning, and there's always the fear that a Fletcher Loyer cold spell could shoot the Boilermakers right out of any game against an opponent worth its salt. But when Loyer, Braden Smith, and Trey Kaufman-Renn are all locked in and doing their thing, not many teams are going to be able to beat Purdue.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (+4250)
It hasn't quite been a vintage Gonzaga season of ludicrous overall efficiency. The Zags are much more of a borderline top-10 team than the No. 1 force of nature that they were in 2017, 2021 and 2022.
Even so, they plowed like a freight train through the non-Michigan portion of their nonconference schedule, and they've mostly dominated the WCC, per usual, save for that one stunning night in Portland. And there's a chance they'll be getting Braden Huff's 18 points per game back from a knee injury just in time for the dance.
Maybe this is finally the year?
4 Teams Looking to Add to Their Championship Collection
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Florida Gators (+1092)
Previous Titles: 2006, 2007, 2025
The reigning champs have been hotter than the sun as of late, entering Wednesday's game against Texas on a seven-game winning streak in which the average margin was 21.6 points.
Yes, two of those seven games were against South Carolina. In fact, the only game against a currently ranked foe was the home game against Alabama. But the Gators were already peaking before that particular stretch, as they have emerged as every bit the trendy title pick that they were at this time one year ago.
One gigantic difference from last season is the lack of three-point shooting, as well as backcourt play in general. Suffice it to say, Walter Clayton Jr. isn't walking through that door, and Boogie Fland isn't even shooting 20 percent from distance on the season.
But this team is so overwhelming in the paint that it almost doesn't matter.
Connecticut Huskies (+1783)
Previous Titles: 1999, 2004, 2011, 2014, 2023, 2024
For two months, it felt like UConn was sleepwalking through the Big East, playing two close games against each of Georgetown and Providence before finally getting clipped at home by Creighton.
But back when the Huskies won games away from home against Illinois, Florida, Kansas, and BYU within 24 days, this felt like the team to beat.
For what it's worth, that was pretty much the formula for their championships in 2023 and 2024, going a combined 21-1 in nonconference play before taking the occasional Big East loss and then turning on the afterburners once the big dance began.
Wouldn't much surprise us if they did it again.
Kansas Jayhawks (+2500)
Previous Titles: 1952, 1988, 2008, 2022
I have no clue what I'm going to do with Kansas in my bracket.
Neither do you.
But with a top 10 defense, a top-tier head coach, and a projected top pick in the upcoming NBA draft, who might finally be getting healthy, odds suggesting that the Jayhawks have a four percent chance of winning it all feel a bit ridiculous, right?
Sure, a bunch of their best wins (Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, BYU) came at Phog Allen, but they also beat Texas Tech (granted, no Christian Anderson in that game), NC State, and Tennessee on a neutral court.
They've proven on multiple occasions that they can lose to non-tournament teams, but they've proven on substantially more occasions that they can beat pretty solid competition. And we all still feel like this team still hasn't reached its ceiling.
Arkansas Razorbacks (+4417)
Previous Titles: 1994
It has been said that defense wins championships. At any rate, there are three decades' worth of KenPom data suggesting that you have to enter the NCAA tournament as a top 40 defense in order to have a case for winning it all.
Therein lies the problem with betting on Arkansas, which sits around 50th in adjusted defensive efficiency—and is not exactly trending upward, with 203 points allowed in its last two games.
We are, however, welcoming counter-arguments of "Yeah...but...Darius Acuff Jr." Because it is increasingly feeling like he could carry the Razorbacks on a series of wins in 95-91 types of games. But the combination of mediocre defense and the current projection of a No. 5 seed explains why John Calipari's Hogs have merely the 12th-best consensus odds.
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3. Arizona Wildcats
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Consensus National Championship Odds: +471
It has been a roller coaster couple of weeks on the Arizona front.
The Wildcats were 23-0 and the unanimous No. 1 team in the AP poll on Feb. 9, but proceeded to suffer back-to-back losses at Kansas and Texas Tech. They also lost Koa Peat to a lower-leg injury midway through the loss to the Red Raiders—though at least it wasn't a season-ending injury, like the ones that have befallen BYU and Texas Tech in recent weeks.
Even though neither loss was bad in terms of margin or opponent, it did kind of feel like things were suddenly unraveling for a team that had won only one game (at BYU) against an upper-echelon foe in more than two months.
Before that could derail into a full-blown, narrative-generating skid, though, they righted the ship, winning at home against BYU and on the road against Houston, even without Peat available.
Just like that, it felt like the Arizona that won nonconference games away from home against Florida, Connecticut, Alabama, UCLA, and San Diego State had returned to strut its stuff.
The Wildcats upset Houston despite shooting just 3-for-12 from three-point range and just barely getting more points (11) and rebounds (11) than fouls (10) from the starting frontcourt of Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka.
And when a team can win at Houston on an off night while down a starter who is potentially going to be a lottery pick?
Sheesh.
We'll see how the Wildcats finish up. They still have home games left against Kansas and Iowa State before the Big 12 tournament. But they are very likely going to be the No. 1 seed in the West Region, going through San Diego, San Jose, and probably Indianapolis.
2. Duke Blue Devils
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Consensus National Championship Odds: +420
For the third time in less than a decade, a Duke freshman is going to be named the National Player of the Year. Cameron Boozer has been absurdly consistent as the leader of this team, leading the ACC in both points and rebounds while also tallying four assists per night.
Can he do what Zion Williamson and Cooper Flagg could not, though, and bring Duke its first national championship since 2015?
To be sure, Williamson and Flagg weren't the reasons Duke bowed out of the dance in 2019 and 2025. The former had 24 points and 14 rebounds in the Elite Eight loss to Michigan State; the latter went for 27 points, seven rebounds, four assists, three blocks, and two steals in the Final Four loss to Houston.
Rather, it was everyone else who was held in check as Duke scored 67 points in each of those disappointments. And there's reason to believe this year's supporting cast might deliver a similar dud at some point in the tournament.
Patrick Ngongba averages about 19 points and 11 rebounds per 40 minutes played, but also 5.1 fouls. If Duke plays in six games, it's almost inevitable he'll be in foul trouble in at least two of them. Can Duke withstand that?
Isaiah Evans has scored in double figures in every game dating back to Christmas, but he's not nearly the secondary scoring option that Kon Knueppel was by the end of last year.
Caleb Foster has had a couple of big games against marquee opponents, but also a handful of games in which he might as well have been a ghost.
But, you know, we're mostly playing devil's advocate here, trying to poke holes where there aren't any glaring ones.
Duke just beat Michigan on a neutral court. It also convincingly swept Louisville, beat Michigan State, Kansas, Arkansas, and Texas on neutral courts, won a home game against Florida, and would be undefeated if not for a pair of late collapses and huge last-second shots against Texas Tech and North Carolina. The Blue Devils are the projected No. 1 overall seed for a reason.
1. Michigan Wolverines
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Consensus National Championship Odds: +372
In Saturday's loss to Duke in Washington, D.C., a lot of things went sideways for Michigan.
Aday Mara's early foul trouble was maybe the biggest problem, but Elliot Cadeau had a rough night, the shooting guard platoon of Nimari Burnett and Trey McKenney shot a combined 1-for-9 from the field, and the ball just refused to bounce Michigan's way en route to an extraordinarily rare -13 in the rebound margin department.
The Wolverines still almost won that game.
Fresh off an 11-point road win over Purdue.
Which came not long after the 12-point win at Michigan State.
And for a good chunk of that game in East Lansing, it felt like we were watching the version of Michigan that just destroyed everything in its path from mid-November through early January, famously including that 40-point drubbing of Gonzaga in the Players Era Festival championship.
Duke got the win, but not in a way that felt like the same thing is bound to happen again if they were to run it back in April.
If anything, it's a game Michigan probably wins seven out of 10 times, but Saturday was one of the other three.
The Cadeau factor is huge, though.
Even when Michigan was annihilating everyone back in December, I had some concerns over whether Cadeau could be that lead guard in the dance that every championship team needs at some point. And that poor showing against Duke was merely one of several examples this season where he simply wasn't what they needed him to be. And if you're curious about the others, just look at five of the six games in which Michigan failed to score 80 points.
There haven't been many of them, and perhaps he'll be able to avoid any Mr. Hyde-type performances in the NCAA tournament. But if you're not picking Michigan to win it all, that's probably why.
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.jpg?w=600 "Heisman candidate goes undrafted, accepts camp invite")
