Every NBA Team's Biggest 2026 Free-Agency Flight Risk
Some NBA teams have the luxury of focusing on the here and now, but everyone has to at least have one eye on the future. Some have to think almost entirely about that.
So, even though we're still a couple months shy of the postseason, it's far from too early to start thinking about free agency.
To that end, today, we're looking at each and every squad's biggest free-agency flight risk in 2026. And a player being the likeliest to leave his organization isn't the only consideration here. We're also factoring in the potential damage that would result from that player leaving.
A sort of balancing test will be applied here. We're looking for the player from each team that checks each of the boxes above.
Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum (Unrestricted)
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Thirty-four-year-old CJ McCollum doesn't really fit the organizational timeline of an Atlanta Hawks team built around Jalen Johnson, but every young team can benefit from the experience and leadership of a player like this.
And beyond that, McCollum is actually helping the Hawks on the floor, too. Since coming over in the Trae Young trade, McCollum has averaged 19.0 points and 3.4 assists. He has a positive net rating swing. And his shooting lends a lot of utility to Johnson's playmaking.
But at this point in his career, and as an unrestricted free agent, McCollum may be willing to take a pay cut this summer to join a team he deems closer to contention. He hasn't won a ring yet, and title contenders could be interested in adding his shooting and experience to their second units.
Boston Celtics: Nikola Vučević (Unrestricted)
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Nikola Vučević hasn't been with the Boston Celtics long, but it's already clear that his range and passing ability will make him a good fit in Joe Mazzulla's offensive schemes.
Whenever Jayson Tatum returns, he might be even more valuable. That's another high-level slasher to introduce to the rotation, who'll benefit from a floor-spacing big like Vuč.
But he came over from the Chicago Bulls on an expiring contract, which means this might just be a rental for Boston. He may not be likely to find a better spot to contend, but there could be others willing to pay him more than a Celtics team that already has Tatum and Jaylen Brown on max deals.
Brooklyn Nets: Ochai Agbaji (Restricted)
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This is sort of a tough one to call, since most of the Brooklyn Nets' potential free agents are either on team options or restricted.
Outside of Day'Ron Sharpe, there probably isn't one in the bunch that would generate a ton of interest around the league either. And there's next to no way Brooklyn will decline the option on him.
Ochai Agbaji may not be the subject of any bidding wars, but there could be some team out there that might make the Nets' ability to match an offer sheet for him uncomfortable.
This season, the 25-year-old's three-point percentage has absolutely cratered, but he hit 39.9 percent of his attempts from deep in 2024-25. That and a prototypical 2-guard's build could lead to some solid offers this summer.
Charlotte Hornets: Coby White (Unrestricted)
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Coby White has yet to debut for his new team, but we have more than enough evidence from his time with the Chicago Bulls to know how dynamic a backcourt scorer he can be.
Over the last three seasons, White has averaged 19.5 points, 4.8 assists and 2.7 threes, while shooting 36.9 percent from deep.
If he keeps up that kind of production through the rest of this season with the Charlotte Hornets (and possibly into a playoff run), teams will be interested in adding his scoring to their own bench units.
Chicago Bulls: Collin Sexton (Unrestricted)
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There's an argument to go with Anfernee Simons here. He's a few months younger than Collin Sexton and gets threes up at a much higher volume. He probably has the stronger reputation as a shooter.
But Sexton, though he's not a lockdown defender or anything, does give more effort on that end of the floor. And he has a higher three-point percentage than Simons (both over the course of their careers and over the course of the last four years).
Since the start of 2022-23 (his first campaign with the Utah Jazz), Sexton has averaged 16.8 points, 4.0 assists and 1.5 threes in just 25.6 minutes, while shooting 39.5 percent from deep.
Losing his competitiveness and production could seriously hurt the Chicago Bulls' chances of competing for another play-in berth next season.
Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden (Player Option)
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At this point in his career, whether he's a free agent or not, it's probably fair to always classify James Harden as a "flight risk."
And if he and the Cleveland Cavaliers come up short this postseason, there's at least a chance he'd decline his $42.3 million player option and chase one last multi-year deal elsewhere.
And while the loss of a 36-year-old point guard may not sound like a disaster, it gets closer to that description when you consider the fact that the Cavs gave up 26-year-old Darius Garland to get him.
Dallas Mavericks: Marvin Bagley III (Unrestricted)
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In a pretty wild turn of events, Marvin Bagley III, who's on his fifth team in eight seasons, is playing at a starter's level and is now outperforming the No. 1 pick from the year he went second.
Bagley is putting up 18.6 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.4 blocks per 75 possessions, with a well-above-average true shooting percentage.
With the way he's played for the Washington Wizards and Dallas Mavericks, there's a good chance Bagley has played his way into another contract. And since the Mavs don't have his Bird rights, there's a better chance it'll be with someone else.
Denver Nuggets: Peyton Watson (Restricted)
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After averaging 6.8 points and shooting 32.8 percent from three in his first three seasons, former defensive specialist Peyton Watson is at 14.9 points, while shooting 41.7 percent from deep this season.
During Nikola Jokić's 16-game absence, those numbers shot up to 22.1 and 44.3.
This breakout has suddenly made Watson one of the most intriguing restricted free agents in the league this summer. And with the notoriously stingy Denver Nuggets already committing significant contracts to Jokić, Jamal Murray and Christian Braun, they may be hesitant to match a hefty offer sheet signed by Watson.
Detroit Pistons: Tobias Harris (Unrestricted)
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The other option here might be Jalen Duren, but it's hard to imagine either the team or the player in this situation gearing up for a divorce. Duren is a restricted free agent, and the Detroit Pistons will match whatever offer sheet their second-best player signs (assuming he even entertains any offers before re-signing).
Tobias Harris, on the other hand, enters the offseason as an unrestricted free agent potentially leaving a team that only has his "early Bird rights" (not that Harris would command more than those rights allow anyway).
That means some other team might be able to pry Harris and his veteran leadership away from the best team in the East this summer.
Golden State Warriors: Kristaps Porziņģis (Unrestricted)
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With another illness or potential POTS (Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome) flareup preventing Kristaps Porziņģis from playing against the Denver Nuggets on Sunday, some Golden State Warriors fans (and members of the front office) may not be eager to sign up for his next contract.
After playing in 42 games last season, he has just 18 appearances in this one. And there's really nothing to suggest things will get better in the future.
But if Porziņģis ends up being a Warrior for just a few months and leaves for nothing, this won't look good for the organization.
Steve Kerr clearly didn't believe in Jonathan Kuminga, but he was a young, developable talent. And Buddy Hield is one of the best three-point shooters the league has ever seen. Golden State moved both for KP.
Houston Rockets: Tari Eason (Restricted)
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Tari Eason was one of the more heavily discussed rookie-scale-extension candidates last offseason, and the Houston Rockets failed to get a deal done with him.
Now, he's averaging 11.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.2 threes in just 25.9 minutes, while shooting a blistering 44.4 percent from deep.
And at 6'8", with an above-average defensive estimated plus-minus, Eason looks like exactly the kind of three-and-D forward that several cap-space teams might throw a lucrative offer sheet toward.
The Rockets will obviously have the opportunity to match, but Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard are all about to get a lot more expensive in the next few years. Depending on the amount of the offer sheet he signs, bringing Eason back may not be a no-brainer.
Indiana Pacers: Quenton Jackson (Restricted)
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There aren't a lot of options for the Indiana Pacers in this exercise. Micah Potter could be a free agent, but he's on a team option. And the other three potential free agents are all on two-way contracts.
We'll spotlight Quenton Jackson, because he's likely done the most of that bunch to generate some interest from other suitors around the league.
The 6'4" combo guard is currently fifth on the gap-year Pacers in wins over replacement player and has hit 40.2 percent of his three-point attempts over the last two seasons. He's also shown off some secondary playmaking upside over the same time frame, with an average of 4.9 assists per 75 possessions.
Los Angeles Clippers: John Collins (Unrestricted)
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There's a case to go with Bennedict Mathurin in this spot. If some other suitor wants to make the Los Angeles Clippers sweat, it could throw him a hefty offer sheet.
But trading a longtime core piece of the team in Ivica Zubac for Mathurin suggests a willingness to keep the scoring guard for a while and develop a backcourt with him and Darius Garland.
And if that's the case, that makes unrestricted free agent John Collins probably the biggest "flight risk" under our flexible definition.
His numbers are down a bit this season, but Collins is in the midst of his sixth season with 17-plus points per 75 possessions, six-plus rebounds per 75 possessions, one-plus threes per 75 possessions and a 36-plus three-point percentage. Only nine players in league history have more such campaigns.
Some team looking for floor spacing out of a big who can also finish above the rim could take a run at Collins.
Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James (Unrestricted)
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All season, it's felt like we're near the end of the Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James era.
They haven't given him an extension. He's 41 years old. L.A.'s point differential has been worse when he's on the floor in each of the last two seasons. And probably most importantly, he just doesn't fit all that well with Luka Dončić, who should be surrounded by rim-runners and gritty perimeter defenders (like he was in Dallas).
That means LeBron's retirement tour will likely play out elsewhere, and Cleveland feels like the most natural possibility.
Memphis Grizzlies: Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Restricted)
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Olivier-Maxence Prosper is currently on a two-way deal with the Memphis Grizzlies, but he may be showing enough as a three-and-D forward to earn a full contract elsewhere.
This season, Prosper is averaging 7.0 points, 2.9 rebounds and 0.8 threes in just 14.6 minutes, while shooting 40.0 percent from three.
That, along with his 6'7" frame and the fact that he's only 23, could generate some real interest among teams looking for depth at a bargain.
Miami Heat: Norman Powell (Unrestricted)
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Life in Miami comes with its perks, but Norman Powell will turn 33 in May. And if the Miami Heat fail to make a deep playoff run, he might start thinking about the "ring chaser" portion of his career.
Depending on what he's willing to play for, there may be teams closer to meaningful title contention that would want Powell to be a heat-check scorer or super sixth man.
That may seem a little insulting for someone who just made his first All-Star team and is averaging 22.9 points, but Powell could still put up close to 20 for a contender willing to offer the right situation.
Milwaukee Bucks: Cam Thomas (Unrestricted)
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The Milwaukee Bucks have plenty of potential free agents, but Cam Thomas feels like the likeliest to cash in elsewhere.
Since the trade to Milwaukee, he's averaging 18.4 points in just 20.0 minutes. And while his lack of playmaking and defense may scare a lot of suitors off, there will be at least one who'll deem his heat-check scoring worthy of a real offer.
And since the Bucks don't have Bird rights on Thomas, they could have a hard time competing with other offers without using something like the mid-level exception.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Ayo Dosunmu (Unrestricted)
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The Minnesota Timberwolves just traded a recent first-round pick (Rob Dillingham) and multiple future second-rounders for Ayo Dosunmu, which suggests they'll want to keep him beyond this season.
But unrestricted free agency can be dangerous, especially for a team as pricey as the Minnesota Timberwolves already are.
If Dosunmu keeps performing the way he has since the trade (he's averaging 12.2 points, 3.0 assists and 1.6 threes, while shooting 38.1 percent from deep) and carries it into a deep playoff run, he could become one of this offseason's more intriguing free-agent guards.
New Orleans Pelicans: DeAndre Jordan (Unrestricted)
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The New Orleans Pelicans are another team without many real options to be considered "flight risks."
With Kevon Looney and Karlo Matkovic both on team options for next season and the other two potential free agents currently playing on two-ways, we're sort of left to default to 37-year-old DeAndre Jordan.
He may be as likely to retire as he is to sign with another team, but over the last few years, Jordan has proven himself a valuable mentor and locker-room presence for younger teams who can still provide some rebounding in a pinch. Just this week, in his first game action since October, Jordan started and grabbed 15 rebounds.
New York Knicks: Mitchell Robinson (Unrestricted)
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Mitchell Robinson is a one-man wrecking machine on the glass, where his 8.4 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions is nearly a full point clear of second-place Steven Adams' 7.5.
When he's on the floor, thanks in large part to those extra shots he generates for his team, the New York Knicks score 2.8 more points per 100 possessions, despite having a worse effective field-goal percentage.
In short, with just one effort-based skill, Robinson is a genuine game-changer.
New York having his Bird rights means it has a pretty good chance to bring him back, but the roster is already well over the tax at his current salary. And with Robinson turning 28 in April (and thus, being smack-dab in the middle of his prime), he'll probably be looking for a raise this summer.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Branden Carlson (Restricted)
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Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort and Kenrich Williams are all on team options for next season. The decision on whether or not they even have the chance to leave is still the Oklahoma City Thunder's.
That leaves just Branden Carlson and Brooks Barnhizer as the only potential free agents for this team. And with the rookie Barnhizer being a couple years younger than Carlson (and thus, presumably, worth a little more investment), we almost have to go with Carlson by default.
If you haven't heard of him before, you're probably not alone. Carlson wasn't drafted, and he's only played in 66 NBA games. But injuries have forced him into some real minutes in 2025-26, and he's shown some real chops as a rim protector.
Having Thomas Sorber in reserve probably means losing Carlson wouldn't be a huge deal, but he may have some interest if he tested free agency.
Orlando Magic: Mo Wagner (Unrestricted)
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Injuries have darn-near derailed Moritz Wagner's career over the last couple years (he has just 45 appearances since the start of 2024-25), but when he's healthy, it's not hard to see the value he can bring to a basketball team.
In those 45 games, the 6'11" big man has averaged 11.6 points and shot 38.3 percent from three, while also posting solid assist and rebound rates.
And with the Orlando Magic already having tons of money committed to Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs, they may not be willing or even able to re-sign the bigger Wagner to a number that would keep him out of unrestricted free agency.
Philadelphia 76ers: Quentin Grimes (Unrestricted)
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After making it through restricted free agency without signing an offer sheet elsewhere, Quentin Grimes came back to the Philadelphia 76ers to play out 2025-26 and become an unrestricted free agent this summer.
With those dynamics in place, this entire season has felt like a waiting game for both the player and the team. His departure this coming offseason almost feels inevitable.
And while his production hasn't been quite as impressive as it was after Philly traded for him last season (when he averaged 21.9 points and 4.5 assists over 28 games), Grimes has still shown enough over the course of his career to get real offers this summer.
He's a willing defender who's averaged double-figures and shot 37.0 percent from deep for his career. And he's only 25. Some team is almost certainly going to make leaving the Sixers worth his while.
Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie (Unrestricted)
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We could go with Mark Williams on this slide. Restricted free agency can cause some problems for the incumbent team. And if Williams tests the free-agency waters, he'd likely get some serious offers.
But restricted free agency also gives those teams the glaring advantage of being able to match whatever offer sheet the player signs. And with the Phoenix Suns relatively light on cumbersome contracts, it's easy to imagine them matching anything reasonable for Williams.
That leads us to Collin Gillespie, whose current contract, when combined with Phoenix's "early bird rights" on him, limits a max deal with the Suns to one that starts at $13.3 million.
This situation is roughly the same as the one faced by Austin Reaves and the Los Angeles Lakers a few years ago. And teams that may have been interested in Reaves then may be more wary of letting an opportunity like this pass again.
They're different players, but Gillespie's 13.3 points, 4.8 assists, 41.7 three-point percentage and steady-handed point guard play could coax some suitor into offering him more than Phoenix is allowed to.
Portland Trail Blazers: Robert Williams III (Unrestricted)
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With Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday and Deni Avdija all under contract next season, the Portland Trail Blazers will presumably want to compete for a playoff spot.
And in that scenario, having a backup big like Robert Williams III could go a long way.
His career has been plagued by injuries, but Williams is 11th in the league in box plus/minus this season and is averaging 14.0 rebounds, 13.9 points and 3.2 blocks per 75 possessions.
That kind of production could convince some suitor to pull him away from the Trail Blazers.
Sacramento Kings: Zach LaVine (Player Option)
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There may be an argument that the Sacramento Kings would be better off with Zach LaVine simply leaving the organization for nothing, but it's not a particularly strong one.
At the very least, Sacramento should want to hold onto him as a trade asset. When he's an expiring contract, he could be easier to move. And there's certainly a chance he plays his way into a little more value next season.
Even if the Kings turn him into little more than a second-round pick or two, that's better than nothing.
San Antonio Spurs: Harrison Barnes (Unrestricted)
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The San Antonio Spurs may not need Harrison Barnes going forward. They're absolutely loaded with younger talent at seemingly every position.
But they also, almost certainly, wouldn't be thrilled to lose him. The 33-year-old forward has a championship and well over a decade of NBA experience. There's still plenty of wisdom for him to impart. And he can help on the floor too.
It makes sense to want shooting around Victor Wembanyama, and Barnes has hit 39.2 percent of his three-point attempts over the last eight seasons.
Toronto Raptors: Sandro Mamukelashvili (Player Option)
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Sandro Mamukelashvili has wildly outperformed his contract for the Toronto Raptors this season, to the point that it feels like a virtual certainty that some team will be willing to pay him more than his $2.8 million player option for 2026-27 would.
In his first season with the Toronto Raptors, the 6'9" forward-center has averaged 11.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.4 threes in just 22.5 minutes, while shooting 38.4 percent from deep.
Whether in a similar role or an even bigger one, Mamukelashvili could provide his versatility and floor spacing to a number of teams around the league. If he declines that option, there will undoubtedly be multiple suitors.
Utah Jazz: Walker Kessler (Restricted)
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When the Utah Jazz failed to reach a rookie-scale extension with Walker Kessler, fans had to be at least a little worried about the prospects of keeping him in restricted free agency.
There could be some cap-space teams willing to offer him the kind of deal that might make Utah's front office hesitant to match.
And though the Jazz have a lot of big men already in the fold (especially after trading for Jaren Jackson Jr.), losing Kessler could set them back significantly on the defensive end.
Washington Wizards: Trae Young (Player Option)
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The Washington Wizards truly don't have a flight risk, at least not one that qualifies under the definition we've been working with.
D'Angelo Russell has a player option for next season, but the front office might actually want him to decline that. And none of Anthony Gill, Sharife Cooper or Jamir Watkins would constitute the kind of loss that would rock an organization.
That leaves Trae Young. He seems unlikely to decline a $49 million player option, but if extension talks don't go to his liking, it's not outside the realm of possibility.
The Wizards didn't give up any draft assets to get Young. So, if he winds up walking, it's not necessarily a total catastrophe. But obviously, they'd prefer to head into next season with the Young-Anthony Davis one-two punch they just traded for.
