Biggest Winners and Losers from Men's College Basketball with 1 Month to Go
From Tyler Tanner putting Vanderbilt back on the map to Shaka Smart's now regrettable decision to completely disregard the transfer portal in his construction of Marquette's roster, the 2025-26 men's college basketball season is full of winners and losers with a little over one month remaining until Selection Sunday.
For each of the five major conferences, we've identified the biggest winner and the biggest loser at roughly 75 percent of the way through the regular season.
Also included are four wild-card winners and four wild-card losers from outside the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten and SEC.
Winners are players or coaches/teams who have drastically exceeded expectations.
And, well, the Losers haven't.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics are current through the start of play Tuesday, Feb. 3.
Atlantic Coast Conference
1 of 7
Biggest Winner: Ryan Odom, Virginia
Last season was a calamity for Virginia. Tony Bennett retired out of nowhere three weeks before the regular season began, and the Cavaliers went 15-17 under interim head coach Ron Sanchez.
And after letting Sanchez go the day they were eliminated from the ACC tournament, they ended up bringing in the architect of the most embarrassing upset in Wahoowa history.
Ryan Odom had been at VCU last season and at Utah State two years before that, but he was the head coach of UMBC when the Retrievers toppled Virginia to pull off the first 16-over-1 upset in NCAA tournament history.
But just as quickly as he extinguished UVA's dreams in 2018, Odom has put this program back on the national radar, sitting at 19-3 with arguably the best freshman trio in the nation—Thijs de Ridder, Johann Grunloh and Chance Mallory.
Even Bennett needed a couple of years to turn things around in Charlottesville, going 31-31 in his first two seasons until that elite defense took root. But in year No. 1 under Odom, they're a top-30 team on both offense and defense for the first time since winning it all in 2019.
Biggest Loser: Jeff Capel, Pittsburgh
Behind the scenes, Pittsburgh's AD and Co. are presumably already trying to identify this year's Ryan Odom who could turn things around in a hurry for the Panthers, because Jeff Capel is almost certainly coaching his final few games there.
It's year No. 8 of the Capel regime, and things have been every bit as rough this season as they were when he first inherited the mess that Kevin Stallings left behind. Except now, he only has himself to blame for the roster and the culture.
With home losses to both Hofstra and Quinnipiac early this season, Pittsburgh has now suffered 15 home losses to teams outside the KenPom top 100 under Capel's tutelage. (FWIW, Duke has suffered one such loss in KenPom history, which dates back to 1997.)
Big 12 Conference
2 of 7
Biggest Winner: UCF Knights
UCF has never particularly mattered in men's college basketball.
The Knights had a fun run in 2019 with Tacko Fall manning the paint, almost stunning Zion Williamson and Duke in the NCAA tournament. But that was the only time this program has ever made the dance as an at-large, and it did so as a No. 9 seed.
This year is different, though.
UCF is 17-4 and better than ever before. It already has home wins over Kansas and Texas Tech, as well as a road win over SEC leader Texas A&M. If the season ended today, the Knights would probably be a No. 6 seed, and could be a real threat in the dance with Riley Kugel and Themus Fulks running the show.
And in addition to being better than ever before, they're better than anyone was expecting. The Knights were picked to finish in 14th place in the preseason Big 12 media poll, but they could probably lose every game left on their schedule and still avoid that fate.
Credit to Johnny Dawkins for building a contender in Orlando.
Biggest Loser: Baylor Bears
In that same preseason poll, Baylor was picked to finish in seventh place in the Big 12, while KenPom had the Bears down for No. 17 overall in the initial team ratings.
Alas, Baylor has been one of the bigger disappointments in the country, likely to miss the tournament for what would be just the second time in the past 12 years. And if the Bears are unable to climb back into the top 35 on KenPom (currently No. 51), it would be their first time finishing that low since 2011.
Desperate to change their fate, Scott Drew controversially (to put it lightly) brought in former second-round draft pick James Nnaji in late December, but the big man has been a complete non-factor, barely even seeing the floor in recent weeks as the Bears lost seven of their first eight Big 12 games.
Big East Conference
3 of 7
Biggest Winner: Seton Hall Pirates
As things stand, Seton Hall is arguably on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble, following a recent skid of four consecutive losses that was punctuated by a bad one at DePaul.
But who could have guessed three months ago that we would be talking about Seton Hall as a bubble team at all?
Certainly not the Big East's head coaches, who almost unanimously tabbed the Pirates for last place in the preseason poll. Hard to blame them, either, considering Seton Hall went 7-25 last season before losing all seven of its leading scorers and needing to adjust to life with 10 new transfers. (Not exactly highly coveted transfers, either, given their NIL limitations.)
Somehow, some way, Shaheen Holloway made it work. The Pirates started out 14-2 with a win over then-ranked NC State in the Maui Invitational. And if they can stun Villanova Wednesday night, they'll be right back in the projected field.
Biggest Loser: Shaka Smart, Marquette
While Seton Hall flipped the script with 10 new transfers, Shaka Smart made it a point not to add a single transfer to his roster at Marquette, even though last year's three leading scorers (Kam Jones, David Joplin and Stevie Mitchell) all ran out of eligibility and needed to be replaced.
Smart opted to do things "the old way," banking on returnees to step into bigger roles and counting on a freshman class consisting of five 4-star recruits to make an impact.
On the latter front, Nigel James Jr. has been awesome, leading the team in both points and assists. Adrien Stevens has also been a big piece of the puzzle, albeit as more of a glue guy who has started the last 14 games.
However, Chase Ross is no Kam Jones, Ben Gold has taken a big step backward, and Zaide Lowery leaving the team in mid-December was a breaking point for a Golden Eagles team that looks nothing like it did in the first four seasons under Smart.
Big Ten Conference
4 of 7
Biggest Winner: Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska
The first three years of Fred Hoiberg's run at Nebraska were brutal. A 24-67 record overall, 9-50 in Big Ten play and an unforgettable image of his bout with what turned out to be the flu during the 2020 Big Ten tournament the night before the world shut down.
Suffice it to say, times have changed in Lincoln. Nebraska was one of the final unbeaten teams still standing with a 20-0 start to the current campaign.
Going back to the preseason media poll well here, the Cornhuskers were picked to finish 14th in October, fresh off a 2024-25 campaign in which they didn't even qualify for the Big Ten tournament. The 'Huskers lost four of the five leading scorers from that squad, and then lost the fifth when Connor Essegian suffered a season-ending ankle injury in late November.
You wouldn't know it from how potent this offense is, though, both firing up threes and limiting turnovers at some of the best rates in the nation. Even in their recent losing efforts against Michigan and Illinois, they proved they can hang with anyone.
Biggest Loser: Oregon Ducks
Heading into this season, Oregon was one of just four programs that had won at least 20 games in each of the last 11 years.
Though nowhere close to matching Kansas (36 straight) or Gonzaga (28 straight), the Ducks were tied with Belmont for the third-longest streak of 15 such seasons in a row—doing so in every season since hiring Dana Altman in 2010.
Emphasis on "were tied," though, because while Belmont has already gotten to 20 wins, Oregon is sitting at 8-14 with a bunch of projected losses yet to come, possibly on track to not even get to 10 wins this year.
Player absences have been a huge factor. Nate Bittle missed the early losses to USC and Creighton and has been out for the past three weeks. Jackson Shelstad hasn't played since Dec. 28. And those are the two leaders of this squad.
Even at full strength early in the year, though, the Ducks just never had their usual mojo, still searching for their first win against a Q1 or Q2 foe.
Southeastern Conference
5 of 7
Biggest Winner: Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt
"Tyler Tanner is one of the few poor shooting rotation pieces, but he has other tangible attributes on each end of the floor."
In Lindy's 2025-26 preview magazine, that's all Brian Mull had to say about what might now be the SEC's Player of the Year.
Justifiably so, we should add. Tanner averaged 20 minutes per game as a freshman in 2024-25, but he was mostly out there for defense, shooting 27 percent from three-point range and averaging just 9.4 field-goal attempts per 40 minutes played.
But now, he's Mr. Everything for the Commodores, shooting 38 percent from distance and leading the team in points, assists and steals. The 6'0" sophomore point guard also ranks third on the team in rebounds, and Vanderbilt is 18-1 when he posts an O-rating of at least 95.
Seemingly every year, there's a sophomore who becomes an All-American after an underwhelming freshman campaign. Tanner is the clear top candidate in that department as we begin our descent to Selection Sunday.
Biggest Loser: The Magnolia State
Though neither team was ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, Ole Miss was No. 24 and Mississippi State was No. 26 in the preseason KenPom ratings—with Michigan State sandwiched directly between them.
While the Spartans have blossomed into a borderline top 10 team, both SEC schools from the Magnolia State have cratered to the tune of an 11-11 record and basically no hope of making the NCAA tournament.
In both cases, perhaps the offseason roster overhaul was just too extensive. Ole Miss had to replace seven of its eight players who averaged at least 2.0 points per game. And though Mississippi State did retain leading scorer Josh Hubbard, it otherwise had to replace all seven of its leading scorers.
They did both win home games against Memphis, which would've been noteworthy in most seasons. However, each lost its five toughest nonconference games before settling into the bottom third of the SEC.
Non-Major Winners
6 of 7
Miami-Ohio RedHawks
Whether they'll ultimately make it to the NCAA tournament has been a hotly debated topic in recent weeks, but the RedHawks are certainly in rarefied air by making it into February without suffering a loss. They have been a well-oiled machine on the offensive end of the floor, and they've had quite the flair for the dramatic with several overtime victories in which both teams eclipsed 100 points.
Robbie Avila, Saint Louis
Whether you preferred Cream Abdul-Jabbar or Larry Nerd, Avila was all the rage two years ago at Indiana State, becoming every college basketball junkie's favorite mid-major star on an Indiana State team that was robbed of an opportunity to play in the NCAA tournament. Now he's the star of a Billikens team that is much better equipped to not only make the dance, but make a legitimate run in it.
Matt Braeuer, Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
The Southland did not officially do a media poll this year. But the Lindy's preview magazine mentioned above? It had Stephen F. Austin projected for dead last in this 12-team league. Nevertheless, first-year head coach Matt Braeuer has the Lumberjacks alone in first place by a two-game margin after Monday's victory over McNeese. The Naismith Coach of the Year never gets awarded to these "top 100 team out of absolutely nowhere" situations, but get ready for Braeuer to be one of the crown jewels of the coaching carousel.
Delrecco Gillespie, Kent State
Gillespie barely played as a freshman in 2022-23, missed most of his sophomore season with an injury, started to blossom last year to the tune of 8.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game and has become the nation's foremost double-double machine with 17 of them thus far in his fourth and final season with the Golden Flashes. He's averaging 19.0 points and 12.0 rebounds and has also already more than doubled both his assist and block totals from last year.
Non-Major Losers
7 of 7
Memphis Tigers
Did winning 29 games last season earn Penny Hardaway a mulligan year as far as the hot seat is concerned? We'll find out soon, as Memphis is sitting at 10-11 overall and perhaps headed for its first losing season since 1999-2000. As it turns out, trying to replace the entire roster in a single offseason—and doing so largely via guys who had already transferred multiple times in the past—isn't a foolproof plan.
Chattanooga Mocs
Memphis isn't the only team in the Volunteer State enduring some tough sledding after a 29-win campaign in 2024-25, as Chattanooga is also sputtering through one of its worst seasons in recent years at 9-14 overall. The Mocs had to replace all five of the leaders from a team that won the SoCon regular season title and the NIT championship, and it hasn't gone well. What was a top 50 team in adjusted offensive efficiency last year now ranks well outside the top 250.
Mountain West Conference
The Mountain West has sent at least four teams to each of the past four NCAA tournaments, but that is looking like a pipe dream this year, thanks in large part to bad losses suffered a long time ago. By Nov. 18, Boise State (vs. D-II Hawaii-Pacific), Grand Canyon (vs. Youngstown State), Nevada (vs. UC Davis), New Mexico (at NMSU) and San Diego State (vs. Troy) had already suffered what is still their worst loss of the season, by far. And as a result, Utah State is the league's only team with a viable case for a single-digit seed.
Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt died in October at the age of 106, and Loyola-Chicago has struggled on the court without the presence of perhaps the most well-recognized chaplain in college basketball history. The Ramblers did pull off an upset of Santa Clara that may well be the reason the Broncos miss the dance, but they also lost to Chicago State, Mercyhurst, Northern Illinois and every team they faced in January. Maybe they can re-hire Porter Moser, though? The coach who led the Ramblers to the 2018 Final Four might be out of a job at Oklahoma in about six weeks.
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