Explaining Tarik Skubal, Tigers' Historic Arbitration amid Contract Rumors

Teams around MLB are bound to pay close attention to the arbitration hearing for the Detroit Tigers and ace Tarik Skubal.

The Athletic's Cody Stavenhagen reported Monday this could have "massive repercussions" in the sport.

For one, Skubal's representatives are seeking a one-year salary ($32 million) that would set an arbitration record. There's also the fact the Tigers submitted their bid of $19 million, creating a sizable gulf between the two figures.

Spotrac pegs Skubal's market value at $37.5 million annually. The two-time reigning American League Cy Young winner, he's widely regarded as one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. If he were to hit free agency, he'd have little trouble of commanding a salary eclipsing $30 million.

However, Detroit's bid reflects the fact no pitcher has earned more than $19.75 million through arbitration (David Price in 2015).

"Given Skubal's two consecutive years of dominance, the case could break arbitration precedent, creating a higher ceiling for star players," Stavenhagen wrote.
"Arbitration salaries for pitchers have generally lagged behind position players. Price's $19.75 million record has stood for 11 years. That number would be worth close to $27 million today, factoring in inflation."

According to Stavenhagen, the Tigers were initially prepared to table an offer of $19.8 million. Not surprisingly, that gained little traction with Skubal and agent Scott Boras.

Landing on a final number somewhere between the team and player's bids would be the most straightforward solution. For Skubal, making $25.5 million in 2026 would be a nice short-term payday and not a significant drop from what he'd receive on the open market. The Tigers would still be getting good value for the money.

Rather than reach any middle ground, the three-person arbitration panel is required to pick from one of the two numbers proposed. That's why the outcome between Skubal and the Tigers could have such a big domino effect.

Should the former prevail, it will significantly raise the cost of good starting pitching in arbitration, and there could be an accompanying effect for position players as well. If a pitcher as good as Skubal can't eclipse $20 million, on the other hand, the scales will continue to be slanted in favor of MLB teams.

There's still time for the Tigers to strike a bargain with Skubal before the arbitrators weigh in. Few things spur people to act more than a firm deadline.

Absent that, the two parties will have to accept a resolution with far-reaching consequences.