Bleacher Report's Expert Divisional Playoff NFL Picks

Entering the NFL Divisional Round, Bleacher Report's betting crew knows there's little margin for error, and every pick carries significant weight on a four-game slate.

Our panel of NFL experts, B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell, had to factor in the unknown variable of teams coming off first-round byes. Do they expect the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks to come out rusty after a week off or benefit from extra rest?

Against the spread, our panel leaned one particular way. Check out the standings and our experts' breakdowns for this weekend's games. 

Playoff ATS Standings 

1. Knox: 5-1

T-2. Davenport: 4-2

T-2. O'Donnell: 4-2

T-4. Moton: 3-3

T-4. Sobleski: 3-3

T-6. Gagnon: 2-4

T-6. Hanford: 2-4

Lone Wolf Picks: 0-1

Lines are from Action Network as of Thursday, Jan. 15, at 4 p.m. ET. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen

Odds Line: Bills (-1.5)

Davenport: Broncos (+1.5)

This may be the hardest game of the weekend to predict.

If there was reason to believe the Broncos could run the ball consistently against Buffalo's Jekyll-and-Hyde defense and take pressure off Bo Nix and an inconsistent Denver passing game, it would be far easier—but the quarterback is going to have to make plays against Buffalo's top-ranked pass defense.

Denver's defense is going to be the story of this game, though, for a number of reasons.

The first is a run defense that can do what the Jaguars did a week ago and slow down Bills running back James Cook. The second is a seventh-ranked pass defense that is going to make throwing the ball far harder than last week. The third is a smothering pass rush that led the NFL (by a wide margin) in sacks with 68 in the regular season.

O'Donnell: Bills (-1.5)

Sean Payton is 4-0 in his playoff career coming off a bye week. He is, however, only 1-3 in his last four postseason games and 0-1 as Broncos coach—Denver lost to Josh Allen and the Bills at Buffalo in the Wild Card Round last year.

Home-field advantage matters here as the Broncos were 8-1 at Mile High this season, but only one of those home wins came against a playoff team (not counting Week 18 when LAC rested its starters). 

The Broncos went 3-2 against other playoff foes this year, and one of those wins was against the Texans in a game that C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion early in the second quarter—incidentally, the last time Houston lost this season. All that is to say, it's hard to trust these Broncos at this time. 

Josh Allen is the NFL's ultimate X-factor playing right now. The flawed Bills have to take the hardest road, literally on the road, no matter how far they advance, but sometimes that gauntlet is exactly what a team needs.

Getting points is a bonus in this forced-pick scenario, but Buffalo wins outright as the Bills continue their Super Bowl march.

Predictions

Bills: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Broncos: Davenport, Sobleski

San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey

Odds Line: Seahawks (-7.5)

Gagnon: 49ers (+7.5)

Each of San Francisco's last four losses has come by double-digit points, including a 13-3 defeat at the hands of the Seahawks in Week 18.

Seattle is also on extra rest and could have Charles Cross back, while the limping 49ers are now without George Kittle. I can see why few are giving San Francisco a chance.

All that said, 7.5 points is pushing it for what is likely to be a low-scoring matchup between familiar foes. 

The Seahawks failed to score more than 13 points in their two matchups with San Francisco this season, and the well-coached, more experienced 49ers should still put up a fight against an untrustworthy offense that committed a second-to-league-high 28 turnovers during the regular season.

This feels like a field-goal game to me. 

Knox: Seahawks (-7.5)

I won't be completely shocked if the 49ers somehow hold it together for another win and their fifth NFC Championship appearance under Kyle Shanahan. However, I just can't pick against the Seattle Seahawks at home and coming out of a bye.

There's always a chance Seattle comes out flat after the layoff, but I'm not overly concerned about that in a divisional matchup. 

While I really respect what Shanahan, Robert Saleh and the 49ers have accomplished despite the numerous injuries this season, I think they could be approaching a breaking point.

Seattle won the last meeting by 10, and even though Fred Warner may return for San Francisco, I think this one will bring a similar outcome. 

Predictions

49ers: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Seahawks: Davenport, Knox

Houston Texans (12-5) at New England Patriots (14-3)

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye

Odds Line: Patriots (-3)

Moton: Patriots (-3)

New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins are in concussion protocol. The former practiced on Wednesday, and the latter didn't, which tells you how they're trending for Sunday's game.

The Texans' 14th-ranked passing attack would take a massive blow if Collins doesn't suit up. Houston is already limited offensively, going against New England's second-ranked scoring attack.

Even if both players suit up, the Patriots have the edge with a more consistent offense. The Texans defense isn't going to score two touchdowns in consecutive weeks.

Take the club with the better quarterback and offensive cast. New England wins by more than a field goal.

Sobleski: Texans (+3)

As the old saying goes, "Defense travels." 

As good as the New England Patriots have been and quarterback Drake Maye under legitimate consideration to be the NFL's next MVP, the Texans' defense is the best single unit still in play.

Maye is only one of two quarterbacks to face more than 230 pressures this season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. To be fair, he has thrived when pressured. However, the Texans are relentless and have the playmakers at all three levels to make him pay for any mistake. 

Conversely, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud can't possibly play as poorly as he did last weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Houston still won the game by four scores thanks to the defense. 

It's time to take the points, rely on Houston's D, and believe in a Stroud bounce back. 

Predictions

Texans: Sobleski

Patriots: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Chicago Bears (11-6)

AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua

Odds Line: Rams (-3.5)

Hanford: Bears (+3.5)

When the Rams are clicking, they're still probably the Super Bowl favorites to me, but their inability to put the Carolina Panthers away in the Wild Card Round makes it hard for me to believe they'll have an easier time against the Bears on the road.

Sean McVay is 0-2 in his career in Chicago, and it looks like this will be the coldest game of the Rams' season with possible snow and 20-degree temps, which should be comfortable for the Bears.

On one hand, Chicago continues to put itself in a position where it's forced to make a miraculous comeback. On the other hand, the Bears are very comfortable doing that.

I think we're going to get a shootout here, and typically I'd back Stafford without hesitation, but this Bears team has defied poor defensive play all season and found a way to survive. 

If the Rams win, it'll be by less than a field goal as they continue to struggle with putting teams away, but I won't be surprised at all if Ben Johnson reaches the NFC Championship in his first year as head coach.

Moton: Rams (-3.5)

At some point, the Bears won't be able to pull a rabbit out of their hat with a late comeback win, and this will be the week that they fall too far behind. 

Los Angeles allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns during the regular season, which means Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will need to play well for four quarters to win this contest.

Because of his 58 percent completion rate, it's hard to believe he can lead Chicago to victory in a potential back-and-forth matchup against the league's No. 1 scoring offense led by MVP candidate Matthew Stafford.

The Rams win by a touchdown. 

Predictions

Rams: Davenport, Knox, Moton, Sobleski

Bears: Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell

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