2025-26 NFL MVP Predictions, Odds for Award's Top Candidates

It'll still be a few weeks before the NFL announces this season's MVP.

Oddsmakers have nevertheless boiled the race down to two candidates.

While a handful of elites sit on the fringes of this race, everything boils down to two quarterbacks: Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams and Drake Maye of the New England Patriots. There's a slight favorite between the two, but maybe the most impressive thing about them is the gargantuan gap separating these two from everyone else.

To highlight that, we'll lay out the latest consensus MVP odds before examining their credentials and crowning a predicted winner.

MVP Odds

AP Photo

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams: -195 bet $195 to win $100)

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots: +160 (bet $100 to win $160)

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: +27274

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears: +50000

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos: +50000

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: +50000

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks: +50000

*Consensus odds from Action Network

The Tale of the Tape

AP Photo

Statistics alone won't settle this debate. Because different metrics will point you toward a different winner.

For instance, Stafford's volume production was louder than anyone's this season. No one tallied more passing yards (4,707), and no one came close to throwing for this many touchdowns (46, 12 more than second place). But Maye's efficiency was the best in the business, as he took first in completion percentage (72), passer rating (113.5) and QBR (77.2).

Narratives can't really call it, either. On the one hand, this is a perfect chance for Stafford to check the one missing box on his Hall of Fame resume. On the other, Maye might deserve to join some all-time greats by collecting the ultimate individual prize in only his second season. It'd be a huge honor, obviously, but he arguably deserves it after overseeing a 10-win turnaround.

Stafford played a harder schedule, but he also had the superior supporting cast. Maye did everything New England needed him to do (as a runner and a passer), but it didn't always need him to do a ton. Flipping a coin to find the "right" winner wouldn't be the worst idea.

MVP Prediction

AP Photo

Choosing a winner is tricky, because you're denying victory to a deserved winner.

This just happened to be a season featuring two MVP-caliber efforts at the same time.

If forced to make a pick, though, the slightest edge goes to Stafford. He was more productive against better competition.

Leading the league in passing scores and passing yards is wildly impressive on its own. Doing that while also setting the high bar for touchdown-to-interception ratio (46-to-8) feels like playing this position at its absolute highest level.