Mel Kiper Jr. Assesses Arch Manning's Development, Competition for No. 1 Pick in 2027 NFL Draft

Legendary NFL draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. feels finally getting on-field reps was critical for Texas quarterback Arch Manning's development this season.

In an interview with the New York Post's Steve Serby, Kiper cited "experience" as the area in which Manning made the biggest jump.

"He didn't have any," the ESPN personality said. "He got off to that start against Ohio State at the Shoe, and then he had to deal with all that hate and everybody saying he was not very good, he's overrated, overhyped. He was overhyped, wasn't his fault people were talking about No. 1 pick in the draft, Heisman Trophy and national title."

In his first year as the Longhorns' starter, the scrutiny toward Manning was immediate after his lackluster showing against the Buckeyes in the opener. Over time, the highly touted signal-caller began to find his footing.

Over Texas' final five games, which included matchups against Vanderbilt, Georgia, Texas A&M and Michigan, he threw for 1,368 yards and 11 touchdowns to one interception. Manning also had 155 rushing yards and two scores on the ground in the 41-27 Citrus Bowl win over the Wolverines.

ARCH 60-YARD TD RUN

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Kiper believes Manning and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers are battling to be the No. 1 quarterback in the 2027 NFL draft class for now:

"I think LaNorris Sellers, Arch Manning could be vying for that top spot. Julian Sayin's gonna be a guy everybody's gonna be watching to see how he progresses, he's gonna have a lot of talent around him there [at Ohio State]. Then you got Sam Leavitt, who's gonna be transferring and going somewhere. … John Mateer, if he goes back to Oklahoma, does he become more consistent as a passer? We know he can move around and extend plays and beat you with his legs, so he'd be in that mix. We have to see what some of these decisions are these kids make, but I think Sellers and Manning would be the two that jump out, and Sayin."

Much was expected of Sellers in 2025 as well, only for the Gamecocks star to perform a little worse than he had as a redshirt freshman. His numbers were down across the board as he finished with 2,437 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions with a 60.8 percent completion rate.

LaNorris Sellers Highlights

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Still, NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah compared Sellers to three-time NFL Pro Bowler Daunte Culpepper last July. The 6'3", 240-pound passer has the physical tools to thrive at the next level, and a big season in 2026 would all but make him a lock for a top-five pick.

Another prospect could leap to the top of the 2027 board.

Oregon's Dante Moore hasn't announced a decision about his status for next season. He's the No. 9 overall player and second-ranked QB on Bleacher Report's 2026 big board, so he could easily declare now.

Citing the fact Moore has logged just 20 college starts, Kiper argued staying in college would be the best choice for him. If that happens, the Ducks star may overtake Manning and Sellers.