Biggest X-Factor That Will Define Each Team on NFL Wild Card Playoff Weekend

After 272 games and 16,320 minutes, the 2025 NFL regular season is over. Eighteen teams have cleaned out their lockers, had their last meeting for a while, and maybe fired the head coach.

However, 14 teams still have a chance to achieve the ultimate goal—hoisting the Lombardi Trophy on February 8.

This year's postseason field is one of the most fascinating in years, largely because there is no clear favorite. Every team has strengths that could propel them to Super Bowl LX and a weakness that could send them home.

They also all have an X-factor that can make the difference between victory and defeat.

Los Angeles Chargers

AP Photo/Doug Murray

Offensive Line

It may be obvious, but the Los Angeles Chargers will go only as far as Justin Herbert can take them, and he can't carry the L.A. offense if he's on his back or running for his life.

The Chargers have been decimated by injuries up front this season, including the loss of starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Due in large part to those injuries, the Bolts gave up 60 sacks this season. Only the Las Vegas Raiders (who pick first in April's draft) gave up more.

Edge-rusher Harold Landry III and the New England Patriots weren't great at getting after opposing quarterbacks in 2025—their 35 sacks in the regular season were seventh-fewest in the league.

The Pats were ninth in the league against the pass, so the secondary played well. For the Chargers to have a chance at the upset, the team has to give Herbert time to find the holes in that defensive backfield.

Green Bay Packers

AP Photo/David Dermer

Running Back Josh Jacobs

For much of the 2025 season, running back Josh Jacobs was the engine that drove the Green Bay offense. He totaled over 1,200 total yards and topped a dozen rushing touchdowns for the second time in as many seasons with the team.

But while nursing a knee injury, Jacobs' production went off a cliff of late—just 28 carries for 112 yards and one score over the past month, including sitting out Week 18 entirely.

Green Bay lost all four of those games.

In Green Bay's home win over the Chicago Bears on December 7, Jacobs gained 86 yards and found the end zone on 20 carries. Two weeks later, a limited Jacobs had just 36 yards on 12 totes—and Green Bay lost in Chicago in overtime.

The Bears were 27th in the league in run defense this year, surrendering 134.5 yards per game. Getting Jacobs going isn't just critical for the Green Bay offense. It's also a way to protect a Packers defense that has struggled after the front-seven was hit hard by injuries.

Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Quarterback Josh Allen

One might expect to see Buffalo's bottom-five run defense listed here, and there's a good chance it will be mentioned a bit farther down the line.

But there is no team in this year's playoff field more reliant on one player than the Bills are on quarterback Josh Allen. There's a reason why an AFC executive told Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated, "They go as far as he takes them. They're not super talented."

Yes, the Bills have the NFL's leading rusher in James Cook. But you can bet the rent that opposing defenses are going to do their level best to take him away and make Allen beat them throwing the ball.

The Bills wide receivers aren't scaring anyone. Allen made a ceremonial start last week but sat out most of the game nursing an injured foot that affected his mobility the week before. He was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, though, and that's a good thing, because the 2024 MVP is going to need to stand on his head to get his team to Super Bowl LX.

San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Scot Tucker

49ers edge Bryce Huff

The Pass Rush (or Lack Thereof)

The San Francisco 49ers have overcome a staggering number of injuries on both sides of the ball, including the loss of star edge-rusher Nick Bosa for most of the season. Once he went down, the team's pass rush evaporated.

The Niners finished last in the league in sacks. Cleveland Browns edge-rusher Myles Garrett recorded three more sacks individually than San Francisco managed as a team.

Per ESPN's Aaron Schatz, the 49ers (who also lost rookie edge-rusher Mykel Williams to an ACL tear) ranked 29th in pass rush win rate (30%) and last in pressure rate (25%). They were 25th in pass defense DVOA when they didn't blitz, and 17th when they did.

It's not a difficult equation to figure out. If the 49ers can't get pressure on Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia this weekend, it's going to place immense pressure on Brock Purdy to match the Eagles score for score.

That's not going to be easy against the league's fifth-ranked scoring defense.

Houston Texans

AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann

Texans OG Tytus Howard

Offensive Line

Once again, the focus shifts to the trenches, where playoff games are often decided. The Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl LIX because they dominated the Kansas City Chiefs at the line of scrimmage.

If there's one area where the Houston Texans could be at a sizable disadvantage against the Pittsburgh Steelers, it's along the offensive front.

Per Schatz, the Texans were 30th in pass block win rate (55.4%) and 32nd in run block win rate (68.3%), and things didn't get better as the season progressed. Since Week 10, they are 31st in pass block win rate (54.2%), and only slightly improved to 30th in run block win rate (68.7%).

To their credit, Houston allowed just 31 sacks, although a lot of that had to do with C.J. Stroud getting the ball out quickly. The Steelers can be thrown on—Pittsburgh was 29th in pass defense this season. If the QB has time, he should be able to pick them apart.

However, if Stroud is under constant pressure and the run game can't get going, the contest could take on the kind of low‑scoring, physical style that favors Pittsburgh.

Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Jessie Alcheh

Consistency

At their best, the Los Angeles Rams show few obvious weaknesses. They have an MVP-caliber quarterback in Matthew Stafford, an offense that sports a top-five O-line and ample playmakers, and a young defense that ranks 10th in points allowed.

This is a team that could win Super Bowl LX, but it is also one that could get bounced in the Wild Card Round by the Carolina Panthers.

Of late, we haven't really seen the Rams at their best—at least not consistently.

In Week 18, they fell behind a woeful Arizona Cardinals team before hitting the gas in the fourth quarter. Prior to that, L.A. dropped two straight, including a wild affair in Seattle. In Week 13, Stafford turned the ball over three times in a 31-28 loss to the Panthers in Charlotte.

The Rams need to reestablish their dominant form, because inconsistency is a quick way to exit the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers

AP Photo/Matt Durisko

Wide Receiver DK Metcalf

The Pittsburgh Steelers won 10 games and the AFC North in 2025, but it has been an up-and-down season in the Steel City.

The Steelers are a three-point underdog to a red-hot Houston Texans team that has won nine straight and sports the NFL's top defense in yards allowed and the AFC's best defense in points allowed.

If the Steelers are going to have a chance in this contest, wide receiver DK Metcalf is going to have to have one of the best games of the season.

Metcalf, who was suspended the last two games of the regular season after an altercation with a fan in Detroit, led the Steelers with six receiving scores and paced the team in receiving yards by a sizable margin.

It's not going to be easy. Metcalf will see a lot of Houston cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., and the Texans have allowed just 183.5 yards per game through the air, sixth-fewest in the league.

However, the Steelers have to get their biggest passing-game threat going—early and often.

Carolina Panthers

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

Quarterback Bryce Young

This is the easiest call in the article. Bryce Young isn't just the biggest X-factor in this week's matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, he's the only factor.

If the Panthers quarterback plays well, they have a chance to pull off the upset at home; if he doesn't, they could easily get blown out.

We have already seen how effective Bryce Young can be. In Week 13 against the Rams, he threw three touchdown passes with no interceptions and completed 75 percent of his attempts.

Unfortunately, there have also been games where his performance has significantly limited the offense. In a blowout loss to the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks in Week 17, he attempted 24 passes and averaged just 2.3 yards per attempt.

That form is not winning any games in January.

It's not an exaggeration to say Young will have to play the best game of his professional career for the Panthers to notch a second win over the Rams.

Jacksonville Jaguars

AP Photo/John Raoux

Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr.

Running the Football

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the postseason as an under‑the‑radar contender, winning eight straight and nine of 10 since their bye week.

One of those wins came in Denver against the AFC's No. 1 seed, but the Jaguars are a 1.5-point underdog at home against Buffalo in the Wild Card Round.

Beating one of the AFC's elite teams in the postseason would help change perceptions and establish the Jaguars as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

And the path to doing that lies in committing to a physical, run-heavy approach against Buffalo.

Running back Travis Etienne Jr. had a solid season in 2025, topping 1,100 yards on the ground. But he hasn't had a 100-yard game since September, hasn't found the end zone in over a month and has just one game with 50 rushing yards over that span.

The Jaguars were just 20th as a team running the ball this year, but they need to get that ground game going—the Bills are a bottom-five run defense, but they possess the best pass defense in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Matt Slocum

Eagles edge Jalyx Hunt

Rushing the Passer

A similar concern applies for the Philadelphia Eagles as well.

An argument can be made for putting Jalen Hurts here—the Philly offense has been bafflingly inconsistent at times this year, and the heart of that inconsistency has been the Super Bowl LIX MVP.

However, this game is going to come down to which team best pressures the opposing signal-caller. And unlike in recent years, the Eagles haven't been as dominant in that regard in 2025.

To be fair, Philadelphia's 42 sacks are more than double San Francisco's this year. But the Eagles don't have a dominant edge-rusher who is going to command double-teams, and Jalyx Hunt paces the team with 6.5 sacks.

As a whole, Philadelphia has the better defense, but we have seen these 49ers carve opponents up of late. Since their bye, the Niners are averaging 32.5 points per game, and that counts a three-point effort against Seattle last week.

If the Eagles can consistently get after Brock Purdy, the defending champions will cruise. If they can't, it's a shootout.

New England Patriots

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Patriots QB Drake Maye

Playing Tougher Opposition

This is not an attempt to diminish what the New England Patriots accomplished with a 14‑win season and the AFC's No. 2 seed, even if that success came against one of the league's softer schedules in recent years.

The Patriots played the teams on the schedule and beat 14 of them. They also dropped a piano on the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.

However, the reality is that New England played three playoff teams in 2025—and lost to two of them. It split the season series with Buffalo, lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers and blasted the Carolina Panthers.

Now the Pats host a Los Angeles Chargers team that ranks fifth in the league in total defense, fifth against the pass, eighth against the run, and ninth in points allowed per contest. It's the best defense New England has faced this season.

The Pats are at home and will likely win, but this is a team that hasn't been punched in the mouth much this season, and as former boxer Mike Tyson once said: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

How New England responds to that punch could solidify the team as one of the favorites in the AFC...or end its season.

Chicago Bears

AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

QB Caleb Williams

Like it could be anyone or anything else for the Chicago Bears.

What Chicago has accomplished in 2025 is the NFL's biggest surprise west of Boston.

In his first year as head coach, Ben Johnson has turned the Bears from a perennial struggler into the NFC North champions and the conference's No. 2 seed. The improvement of quarterback Caleb Williams has played a big role in that turnaround.

The 2024 No. 1 overall pick is also the one player who will decide how far the Bears get in the playoffs.

Johnson has done a masterful job of building an offense that supports Williams, whether it's Chicago's two-headed rushing attack, a deep group of pass-catchers or smart play-calling.

At some point, though, the postseason can call for some "Hero-Ball" from a quarterback. The USC product is capable of it and seems to enjoy playing it—perhaps a bit too much.

At his best, Williams will win the game with one play, but he's equally capable of losing it at this point in his young career.