Miami vs. Ole Miss Odds, Box Score Prediction for Fiesta Bowl 2026

The Miami Hurricanes defense and Ole Miss Rebels offense have been two of the most productive units through two rounds of the College Football Playoff.

Miami held its first two playoff foes to a combined 17 points. The defense, in its current form, is more than worthy of bringing a championship to the Hurricanes.

Ole Miss put up 80 points in its two wins to reach the semifinal round at the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday.

Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy are the stars of the prolific offense, and for the Rebels to reach the national championship, they need to solve the Miami defense.

Fiesta Bowl Odds

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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread: Miami (-3.5)

Over/Under: 52.5

Money Line: Miami (-166; bet $166 to win $100); Ole Miss (+140; bet $100 to win $140)

Miami Box Score Predictions

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Miam did not have many issues moving the ball in its two playoff victories.

The Hurricanes ran for 175 yards and had 278 total yards in the opening-round win over the Texas A&M Aggies. They were just unable to convert those yards into points on a consistent basis.

The Carson Beck-led unit looked efficient in the quarterfinal triumph over the Ohio State Buckeyes with 18 first downs, 291 yards and 14 first-half points.

Most of Miami's offensive success has come through the ground game, led by Mark Fletcher Jr., who had 262 rushing yards in the previous two contests.

Carson Beck has only thrown for 241 yards in the CFB Playoff. He entered the postseason with five straight 200-plus-yard passing performances.

Miami should find even more offensive success against an Ole Miss defense that let up 343 total yards and 34 points to the Georgia Bulldogs in the quarterfinals.

The expectation is that Fletcher will run the ball well again, and if Beck improves on his passing numbers, the Hurricanes will be difficult to beat.

Stat Predictions:

Mark Fletcher Jr.: 90 yards, TD

Carson Beck: 215 yards, 2 passing TD

Ole Miss Box Score Predictions

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Ole Miss probably won't put up 473 total yards on the Miami defense, like it did against Georgia.

Miami held each of its last six opponents to 17 points or fewer, and although Ohio State had 332 yards in the quarterfinal round, it shut down the Buckeyes in the first half.

Ohio State only ran for 45 yards against Miami, which is not a good sign for Kewan Lacy, who had 87 and 98 rushing yards in the first two rounds.

Trinidad Chambliss might be forced to shoulder most of the offensive pressure if Lacy is bottled up.

Chambliss could put up a strong stat line, but that might be due to an early Miami lead combined with the Hurricanes' success against Lacy.

Look for Harrison Wallace, who had 156 receiving yards against UGA, to be Chambliss' main target once again. Wallace could produce a similar stat line to Jeremiah Smith's 157-yard performance in the last round, but it might be good enough if Miami keeps Ole Miss out of the end zone.

Stat Predictions

Kewan Lacy: 60 rushing yards

Trinidad Chambliss: 250 passing yards, TD

Harrison Wallace: 100 receiving yards