Fiesta Bowl 2026 Top Stars, Odds, Picks in Miami vs. Ole Miss Semis Bracket
The Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels stayed true to their identities in their pair of respective College Football Playoff wins.
Miami banked on a strong ground game and a much improved defense to reach the Fiesta Bowl.
Ole Miss' high-scoring offense could not be slowed down by either of its opponents. The Rebels scored 80 points in the first two rounds to land in Thursday's national semifinal.
Although Miami is the higher seed in the matchup, it is the favorite for clash at State Farm Stadium.
Fiesta Bowl Odds
1 of 4
Spread: Miami (-3.5)
Over/Under: 52.5
Money Line: Miami (-180; bet $180 to win $100); Ole Miss (+150; bet $100 to win $150)
Miami Top Stars to Watch
2 of 4
RB Mark Fletcher Jr.
Mark Fletcher Jr. ran for 262 yards in the first two rounds.
Fletcher averaged 10.1 yards per carry in the first-round win over the Texas A&M Aggies and then averaged 4.7 yards per carry in the quarterfinal triumph over the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Miami needs Fletcher to be that effective again on Thursday to keep its offensive balance and to make sure the ball stays away from the Ole Miss offense.
Ole Miss allowed 124 rushing yards to the Georgia Bulldogs in the quarterfinals, so there should be plenty of space for Fletcher to run through.
DL Rueben Bain Jr.
Rueben Bain Jr. made four of his 8.5 sacks against Texas A&M and Ohio State.
The highly-rated defensive line prospect also had 1.5 tackles for loss versus Ohio State.
Bain must continue to make an impact in the trenches so that Miami can take away the Ole Miss rushing attack, led by Kewan Lacy.
If he slows down Lacy and gets to quarterback Trinidad Chambliss once or twice, it could shift the game in Miami's favor for good.
Ole Miss Top Stars to Watch
3 of 4
QB Trinidad Chambliss
Trinidad Chambliss has been the far more effective quarterback in the CFB Playoff than Miami's Carson Beck.
Chambliss completed 79.3 percent of his passes and threw for 282 yards in the opening round against the Tulane Green Wave. He followed that up with 362 yards and two touchdowns versus Georgia.
Chambliss threw for at least 260 yards in each of his five games against ranked opposition this season.
Although Miami's defense has been fantastic lately, it did give up 287 passing yards to Ohio State. A similar statistic is expected out of Chambliss for Ole Miss to win on Thursday.
RB Kewan Lacy
Ole Miss isn't going to win a defensive battle.
The Rebels need to score 20-30 through their balanced offense to advance to the national championship.
For that to happen, Kewan Lacy must be as effective as Chambliss. He averaged 5.8 and 4.5 yards per carry in the two prior playoff games. He enters the Fiesta Bowl on an eight-game scoring streak in which he's found the end zone multiple times in five games.
Lacy faces a much tougher matchup against Miami's front seven, but if he can break through the Hurricanes' lines, he could be the X-factor for the lone SEC side left in the playoff.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Fiesta Bowl Pick
4 of 4
Miami's held each of its last six opponents to 17 points or fewer.
The Hurricanes slowed down Ohio State's star-laden offense in the truest sign yet that their defense can match up with any team in the country.
Ole Miss has to see that as a big concern because it relies so much on Chambliss and Lacy to create big plays.
The Rebels defense struggled to contain Georgia in the quarterfinal and let up over 17 points in all of its ranked SEC matchups this season.
Prediction: Miami 31, Ole Miss 17
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
