Arsenal Need an Olivier Giroud Upgrade If They Are to Win the Premier League

Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger thinks a title challenge is possible this season, although he admitted in a press conference last week that it won't be easy with the current squad.

"I promise we will fight to win it this season, but it is difficult," Wenger said. "I just say we feel we have a chance—all going well." 

His optimism is stoked, presumably, by the performances at the back end of last season and the signing of Petr Cech, who adds experience and authority in goal.

Two huge questions remain, though. Firstly, do Arsenal have enough cover in defence and at the back of midfield? And secondly, is striker Olivier Giroud good enough?

There have been whispers this week that a big, new signing could happen before the start of the season, as club director Lord Harris suggested in an interview with the Daily Mail's Nik Simon that the main target is a centre-forward.

“We get a list of the players that Wenger wants,” he said. “On the list is a centre-forward, but I'm not going to tell you who he is. You've got to get the other team to want to sell him, but I think he wants to come.”

That implies Wenger himself isn’t entirely convinced Giroud is good enough, although the issue remains an emotive one for Arsenal fans. He did, after all, score 14 goals in 21 Premier League starts last season, making him the joint-sixth highest scorer in the league, and he also contributed three assists.

According to stats from WhoScored.com, only four centre-forwards won more than his 3.7 aerial duels per game last season. It's a particularly impressive record given that Arsenal’s tendency, while more varied recently than it has been, is usually to look to pass the ball through opponents.

Matt Dunham/Associated Press

He scores against big sides, as well—he’s not just a forward for bullying the clubs in mid-table and below. Last season, he scored against Manchester City both in the Community Shield and in the league game at the Etihad, against Manchester United and home and away versus Liverpool.

His touch is good, he is—sometimes—capable of becoming involved in those rat-a-tat flurries of passing around the box that characterise Arsenal at their best, and there are times when he looks an excellent finisher.

But there are still those times when he doesn’t look an excellent finisher. Every now and again, particularly in high-profile games, Giroud will have a shocker.

Perhaps the worst last season was at home against Monaco in the Champions League, when Wenger took Giroud off at the hour mark after he’d missed six chances, three of them highly presentable. The most alarming aspect of that game was how discouraged Giroud seemed to become so quickly; it’s natural, of course, that confidence should dip when chances are missed, but the very best strikers are characterised by their ability to shake off failure and keep taking risks.

There is a fragility about Giroud’s mindset that shows not only when he misses chances. In the home game against Swansea City in May, for instance, he was dominated by Ashley Williams and managed just 19 touches—and one aerial duel win—in the 68 minutes before he was taken off. Nine days later, he was negated by Sebastian Coates as Arsenal failed to break down Sunderland. Despite his physique, Giroud struggles to impose himself against big, muscular defenders.

Alastair Grant/Associated Press

There’s also something a little odd about his pass success rate. In his career, it has never been above 70 percent, and it was just 67.7 percent last season. Strikers often rate low in that metric because of the high-risk nature of much of their passing, but that is still surprisingly poor for an Arsenal player—only 29 outfielders had a worse record last campaign, according to WhoScored.com.

So while Giroud can become involved in those chains of passes, he may also be a weak link in the Arsenal attack.

None of which is to say that Giroud is a bad player. He was instrumental in Montpellier winning the French title and there are days when he excels. But he suffers an occasional technical clumsiness and a fragility of confidence that mean he can’t always be relied upon. Even with Theo Walcott as a second option, if Arsenal really are serious about a title challenge, they need to upgrade.