Expert College Football Betting Locks for 2025 Playoff Semifinal Games
At long last, only four teams remain. And if we're being completely honest, it's not the four teams we saw coming.
Either Ole Miss or Miami will play in the national championship, which is a welcome change of pace given how many college football regulars have competed for a title over the past decade.
On the other side of the bracket, Indiana and Oregon will play in a rematch absolutely no one will be angry about. The Hoosiers won the first matchup on the road, and they're favored once again. But this is different in every way.
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With the pleasantries out of the way, let's get right to it. Enjoy every remaining college football game while you can.
Fiesta Bowl: Miami (-3.5) vs. Ole Miss
Let's begin with some praise for both programs, as they created brilliance and drama in a postseason round that needed plenty of both.
With the other games taking on the form of blowouts, Miami pulled one of the biggest upsets in CFP history, and Ole Miss, without its former head coach, did something awfully similar.
This isn't the semifinal we saw coming, but it's one we will gladly embrace. And we're going to be embracing Miami to move forward.
Oh, we've doubted this team. We've also doubted the head coach. In fairness, Miami has given us reason to doubt over the past few seasons, losing games against teams it shouldn't lose games against.
None of that matters at this exact moment. The Hurricanes have gone on the road to beat Texas A&M and overwhelmed mighty Ohio State, coming together at the right time.
"Overwhelmed" is indeed the word to use, especially when you see just how well Miami has played in the trenches. The Hurricanes averaged more than four yards per carry against the Buckeyes, one of the nation's elite run defenses. But the defensive line, which has been the dominant force in both playoff games to date, is where this pick takes form.
Oh, it will have its work cut out for it against Ole Miss. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was absolutely sensational against Georgia, and he'll be slippery once again. Even with his wideouts and targets dropping balls, Chambliss found a way.
Still, this feels like a different challenge. The Miami defense isn't just good up front. The Hurricanes are also sensational on the back end. And the ability to run the ball behind a dominant offensive line creates a unique challenge for Ole Miss.
Speaking of challenges, the Ole Miss staff is likely to undergo more changes, with assistants poised to leave for LSU to work under Lane Kiffin. That's a significant disruption given how little time these teams have to prepare.
Look for Miami to dominate time of possession, kill clock and torment Chambliss just enough. With that in mind, we're also leaning toward the under, leaning on a Miami defense that should once again be the star of the show.
The Pick: Miami (-3.5)
Peach Bowl: Oregon (+4) vs. Indiana
Don't assume the second coming of this delightful matchup will go like the first game did, but let's take inventory on what we saw months ago.
Indiana went to Eugene and won 30-20, though neither offense was particularly sharp. Both quarterbacks—Oregon's Dante Moore and Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, perhaps the first two QBs taken in next year's draft—combined to throw three interceptions. Mendoza, the eventual Heisman winner, threw a pick-six.
The defenses ruled, and they likely will again. These two teams combined to allow just three points last round. Oregon shut out Texas Tech, forcing four turnovers in the process.
Indiana limited Alabama to 193 yards and three points, dominating the Crimson Tide in a way we haven't seen in many, many years. The Hoosiers limited Alabama to 23 yards rushing on 17 carries, and the defense sacked Ty Simpson three times.
Now, this total sits in the mid-40s, which feels about right. This game features a wealth of offensive firepower, although both defenses have the ability to be elite.
As for location, this one seems somewhat relevant.
While the Peach Bowl will be a neutral site, don't be surprised if the crowd is more Indiana-heavy. It's not an easy trip from Eugene. It's even harder for those considering making a trip to the national championship in Miami a week later, if they get that far.
Despite the first outcome and the long travel, this feels like a field-goal game. Even the first matchup, which was ultimately decided by 10 points, was tight throughout.
Indiana has been absolutely sensational, and there is no reason to believe that will stop here. Oregon, however, just played one of the best defenses in the country, found success and still left a lot of points out there. That experience should help plenty.
Since the line was posted, it has moved slightly in Indiana's favor. Given how sensational this team played against Alabama, this should come as no surprise.
Still, it feels a tad high. Oregon is more than capable of pulling off the upset, and the Ducks should find success on both sides of the field.
Close game. Fabulous game. Enjoy this one regardless of what side you land on.
The Pick: Oregon (+4)
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