Sugar Bowl 2026: Odds, Box Score Prediction for Ole Miss vs. Georgia

The Sugar Bowl is the only one of the four College Football Playoff quarterfinals to be a rematch from the regular season.

The third-seeded Georgia Bulldogs outlasted the sixth-seeded Ole Miss Rebels 43-35 back on October 18 in Athens.

Since then, UGA's defense allowed just two teams to score over 20 points on it, while Ole Miss' offense has dominated most of its games.

Sugar Bowl Info

Date: Thursday, January 1

Start Time: 8 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: ESPN.com and ESPN app

Sugar Bowl Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread: Georgia (-6.5)

Over/Under: 55.5

Money Line: Georgia (-250; bet $250 to win $100); Ole Miss (+205; bet $100 to win $205)

Prediction

Ole Miss was the last team to put up more than 21 points on the Georgia defense.

Trinidad Chambliss and Co. produced 351 total yards and totaled four touchdowns on the ground in the loss in Athens.

While the bulk of Ole Miss' scoring plays came on the ground, it didn't have the best time moving the ball in the rushing game. Chambliss had 42 yards and on nine carries and Kewan Lacy averaged 2.9 yards per attempt.

Conversely, Georgia's stable of running backs combined for 221 rushing yards and it got four passing touchdowns out of Gunner Stockton.

If Ole Miss can't get the run game going again on New Years' Day, it could present wider issues for its offense. That would allow UGA to tee off in the pass rush against Chambliss.

Georgia put on a defensive masterclass in the SEC Championship Game by holding the Alabama Crimson Tide to seven points. UGA also held its previous two opponents to single-digit point totals.

Ole Miss' three lowest point concessions of the season came against The Citadel, Georgia State and Tulane. It regularly allowed 20+ points in SEC play.

You can't take much away from Ole Miss' first-round defensive performance against Tulane and apply it to the Sugar Bowl because it was such a lopsided affair. UGA put up 43 points on the Rebels and Oklahoma scored 26 in a defeat to Ole Miss. Those were the two toughest games on the Ole Miss schedule.

Wide receiver Zachariah Branch and running back Nate Frazier will be the two toughest skill position players for Ole Miss to contain. They have been the leading receiver and rusher in most UGA games this season.

Stockton has other targets to rely on, but the speedy Branch, a USC transfer, is the primary play maker.

If Georgia unleashes Branch early and Frazier finds his way on the ground, the Bulldogs could be on the way to an even larger win than the October 18 contest.

Prediction: Georgia 31, Ole Miss 16

Stat Predictions:

Kewan Lacy: 55 rushing yards

Trinidad Chambliss: 270 total yards, 2 total TD

Zachariah Branch: 100 receiving yards, TD

Nate Frazier: 80 rushing yards, TD