Rose Bowl 2026: Odds, Box Score Prediction for Alabama vs. Indiana

The top-ranked team in the College Football Playoff field continues its quest for a national championship at the Rose Bowl on New Years' Day.

Nothing has gotten in the way of the Indiana Hoosiers this season. They have a freshly-minted Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback in Fernando Mendoza and one of the best defenses in the sport.

The Alabama Crimson Tide come into Pasadena off an impressive road win over the Oklahoma Sooners in the opening round.

Alabama is a touchdown underdog, but if it plays like it did in Norman, it has a chance to hang with the No. 1 overall seed.

Rose Bowl Info

Date: Thursday, January 1

Start Time: 4 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: ESPN.com and ESPN app

Rose Bowl Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread: Indiana (-7)

Over/Under: 47.5

Money Line: Indiana (-245; bet $245 to win $100); Alabama (+200; bet $100 to win $200)

Prediction

Indiana rarely displayed flaws in the regular season.

Fernando Mendoza played better as the campaign went on and he delivered a handful of clutch throws in key moments, including in the second half of the Big Ten Championship Game.

Alabama allowed 307 passing yards to Oklahoma in the first round, so there will be holes to exploit in the Crimson Tide secondary.

Charlie Becker was Mendoza's primary target in the win over the Ohio State Buckeyes with 126 yards on seven catches.

Becker is the team's third-leading pass-catcher behind Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt.

Cooper, Indiana's top pass-catcher this season, made one of the catches of the year for the win against the Penn State Nittany Lions on November 8.

Both Cooper and Sarratt average over 13 yards per reception. They combined for 23 receiving touchdowns. Becker only found the end zone twice.

Indiana is also deep in the run game. Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black both have over 700 rushing yards and they were responsible for 13 rushing touchdowns between them.

That's a long-winded way to say Alabama has a ton on its hands defensively to slow down the top-ranked team in the country.

Alabama's path to victory requires keeping up with the Hoosiers on offense. Ty Simpson had five pass hookups with Lotzeir Brooks and Isaiah Horton in the first round.

Brooks, a freshman, had his breakout game of the season with five catches for 79 yards and two touchdowns.

With Jose Cuevas not at 100 percent and a not-so-great rushing attack with banged-up stars, Brooks has to be the go-to guy again for Simpson.

Indiana's defense was tough to crack in the second half of the Big Ten campaign. It allowed 10 points or fewer in five of its last six games. Even the mighty Ohio State offense with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate mustered just 10 points versus the Hoosiers.

Alabama might need another career day out of Brooks to have a shot at pulling off the upset.

Few people though the banged-up Bama offense would put up 34 points in Norman, but putting up points on the Indiana defense is a whole other task.

Prediction: Indiana 24, Alabama 13

Stat Predictions:

Elijah Sarratt: 6 catches, 90 yards, TD

Fernando Mendoza: 245 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, 3 total TD

Lotzeir Brooks: 5 catches, 70 yards, TD

Ty Simpson: 230 passing yards