Orange Bowl 2026 Odds, Box Score Prediction for Oregon vs. Texas Tech

We've officially reached the 2025-26 College Football Playoff (CFP) quarterfinals. Miami and Ohio State will kick things off on Wednesday evening in the Cotton Bowl Classic before Oregon and Texas Tech ring in the New Year with Thursday's Orange Bowl.

The Orange Bowl figures to be one of the most intriguing games of the entire CFP. Texas Tech won the Big 12 and earned a first-round bye with an impressive 12-1 record. The Ducks, though, also went 12-1 with their only loss coming against Fernando Mendoza and the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers.

There's a real chance we won't see two more evenly-matched teams face off until the CFP Championship Game—if we even see it then.

What should be a thrilling battle between No. 4 and No. 5 might just propel the winner to a title run. Here's what you should know about Thursday's matchup, along with a few predictions.

2026 Capital One Orange Bowl

Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Texas Tech QB Behren Morton

Who: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

When: Thursday, January 1

Time: 12 p.m. ET

Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami

TV: ESPN

Streaming: ESPN app

Line: Oregon -2.5

Over/Under: 51.5

Moneyline: Oregon -130 (bet $130 to win $100), Texas Tech +110 (bet $100 to win $110)

*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Preview and Predictions

Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Oregon QB Dante Moore

Despite being the lower-ranked team, Oregon enters as a slight favorite. On paper, that may seem odd.

The Ducks were terrific in 2025, with a 10-point loss to Indiana the only blemish on their record. Led by future NFL first-round pick Dante Moore, Oregon averaged an impressive 39.2 points per game while allowing just 16.3 points per contest defensively.

Texas Tech, though, was even more impressive statistically, averaging 42.5 points per game while allowing just under 11 points per game.

However, one could argue that Oregon had the more impressive season and the more impressive loss. The Red Raiders only beat two ranked opponents—Utah and BYU twice—while losing to an eight-win Arizona State team.

Texas Tech has also experienced a lengthy layoff, while Oregon got to stay hot against James Madison in the opening round. Another factor to consider is the fact that Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton hasn't fully recovered from the fibula fracture he suffered early in the year and aggravated in October.

"It's been great getting these 20-something days that we got," Morton said, per James Crepea of OregonLive. "But I'm feeling closer to 80-85%. It's been good. We've got guys healthy this week. It's been a good week of prep."

Still, fans should expect both defenses to be tested far more than they're used to in this one. While Morton may not take over the game, Texas Tech can ride their impressive backfield duo to keep pace with the Duck.

Expect Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams to each find the end zone for the Red Raiders while combining for more than 150 yards and pushing Texas Tech past 375 yards of total offense.

The Ducks, meanwhile, should ride Moore, a legitimate candidate to go No. 1 overall in April's NFL draft. Expect him to top 275 passing yards while pushing Oregon over 400 total yards and delivering a late go-ahead score.

Score Prediction: Oregon 30, Texas Tech 27

Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.