Despite Wild Overtime Loss to Seahawks, Rams Are Still Best NFC Bet for Super Bowl LX

It's not hyperbole to say that Thursday night's game between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks might have been the best game of the 2025 NFL season thus far. The finish was fantastic, and the stakes were incredibly high.

Seattle battled back from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit to force overtime before walking off on a two-point conversion. The comeback win earned the Seahawks the top spot in the NFC West and control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. For the time being, the NFC's road to Super Bowl LX runs through Seattle.

Yet, the Rams (+425) are still considered slight favorites over the Seahawks (+500) to win this year's championship, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Despite Thursday's loss, L.A. should be considered the best bet to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX.

Los Angeles Can Learn From Its Latest Loss

Here's the thing about Thursday's matchup. Had the Rams held on to win, we wouldn't even be questioning their status as NFC favorites.

Now, Seattle deserves all the credit for fighting through a trio of turnovers and some early defensive gaffes. This was the sort of game that should give the Seahawks confidence ahead of the postseason.

"I didn't think we played our best football," Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold said, per ESPN's Brady Henderson. "I certainly didn't play my best football. We've got a lot of work to do there, but at the end of the day, we won."

However, this wasn't the sort of loss that should discourage L.A. either. Had the Rams avoided just one or two of their own mistakes, they'd have come out ahead. Should these two teams meet again in the postseason, which feels likely, Sean McVay and Co. will actively avoid those mistakes.

Punting a returnable ball to Rashid Shaheed? The Rams won't do that again. It was Shaheed's return touchdown that reignited Seattle's spark midway through the fourth quarter.

The Rams can also make sure to pay a little more attention to any future two-point tries. Seattle succeeded on three of them en route to Thursday's victory, but the second, and the one that forced overtime, was one of the wildest plays we've seen this season.

Darnold missed Zach Charbonnet on a quick pass to his left. The ball hit the turf, and the play appeared to be over at that point. However, after review, it was determined that Darnold threw a backward pass, which resulted in a fumble recovered by Seattle in the end zone for a successful two-point play.

Had the Rams made a stronger effort to get the ball in that situation—and safety Kamren Curl nearly caught the ball before it hit the ground—they might have won in regulation.

The Rams also missed quite a few opportunities to put the game away. While Matthew Stafford was mostly good, throwing for 457 yards and three touchdowns, he had several uncharacteristic misfires in the second half.

Again, the Seahawks deserve praise for making the plays they needed to win. However, had the two teams played this exact same game 10 times, this might be the only one Seattle wins.

According to Stathead (h/t Cameron DeSilva of Rams Wire), the Rams are the first team in NFL history to gain over 500 yards of offense, win the turnover battle by plus-three, and lose. That's a disappointing fact for L.A., but this is the sort of outcome that can galvanize the Rams moving forward.

"I just feel like this a wake-up call," linebacker Byron Young said, per ESPN's Sarah Barshop. "...I definitely think it's something that we needed, but I don't look at as a bad thing. I just look at it that it is motivation."

The Rams Still Have a Path to the No. 1 Seed

Injuries also played a role in Thursday's loss. Los Angeles was without standout No. 2 receiver Davante Adams (hamstring), and it lost guard Kevin Dotson to an ankle injury early in the contest and did not return.

Dotson's injury is concerning, as he was spotted on crutches after the game.

However, the Rams now have 10 days to get Adams healthier and, potentially, adapt to Dotson's absence from the line. Those will be critical goals, as Los Angeles still has a path to earning the No. 1 seed.

Thursday's loss only split the series between L.A. and Seattle. The Rams currently own the tiebreaker for common opponents, so if they beat the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, they'll have a shot at the top seed, though they'll need help.

The Seahawks will have to lose to either the Carolina Panthers or the San Francisco 49ers to cede the No. 1 seed. If they lose to San Francisco, though, the Rams will also need the 49ers to lose one of their other two remaining games against the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears.

Los Angeles will also need Chicago to lose one of its three remaining games—against the Green Bay Packers, 49ers, and Detroit Lions. While the Rams would undoubtedly prefer to control their own destiny, getting back to the top of the division and the conference isn't an impossible challenge.

According to The Athletic's playoff simulator, the L.A. now has a 24-percent chance to win the division and a 20-percent chance of claiming the NFC's No. 1 seed. Those obviously aren't great odds, but they're better than one might expect coming out of such a disappointing loss.

The Experience of McVay, Stafford, and the Rams Can't Be Discounted

As Young noted, this loss can serve as a "wake-up call for the Rams. They still have a top-10 scoring defense, several potent offensive playmakers, a seasoned head coach, and one of the top quarterbacks of his generation.

And it's the presence of McVay and Stafford that makes Los Angeles such a postseason threat.

General manager Les Snead has done a remarkable job of turning over the Rams roster after their post-Super Bowl slump in 2022. However, McVay and Stafford led that squad through a tough playoff bracket to reach and win Super Bowl LVI.

While the Rams did win the NFC West in 2021, they didn't earn the No. 1 seed. The beat the rival Cardinals in the wild-card round, fended off Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional round, then outlasted the rival 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.

Even if the Rams stay in the No. 5 spot, that will likely mean a trip to visit either the Carolina Panthers or the Buccaneers. While L.A. has already lost to Carolina this season, the Rams would likely be heavily favored in either matchup.

Their path—aside from not playing every game in L.A., which doesn't really provide much of a home-field advantage anyway—wouldn't be that different from the road the Rams took in 2021.

McVay and Stafford know exactly what it takes to stage a lengthy playoff run, and their experience and leadership give L.A. an edge that most other NFC contenders don't have.

The Philadelphia Eagles, of course, are defending champs, but they don't feel as threatening as they did a year ago. The Packers just lost star pass-rusher Micah Parsons for the season, while the Bears and Seahawks have relatively inexperienced head coaches—Mike Macdonald is in his second season, while Ben Johnson is in his first.

Darnold and Bears quarterback Caleb Williams have appeared in one playoff game combined, a game Darnold lost to the Rams a year ago.

Realistically, the biggest obstacles between Los Angeles and the Super Bowl are Seattle and San Francisco—teams that the Rams know well and have already beaten once this season.

And there's a very good chance fans will be treated to a third matchup between Seattle and Los Angeles that paves the way for the eventual NFC Super Bowl representative. While the Seahawks should feel good about winning the latest meeting, the Rams should feel just as good about their chances of winning the rubber match.

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