NFL Playoff Bracket Picture 2025-26, Standings, Scenarios After Rams vs. Seahawks

Week 16 of the NFL season features some games with massive playoff implications, and the first one on the ledger occurred Thursday after the Seattle Seahawks overcame a 16-point second half deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Rams 38-37 in overtime.

With that win, Seattle is first alone in the NFC West and the conference at-large and controls its own destiny to have homefield advantage until the Super Bowl.

Here's a look at how that result impacted the playoff picture as well as the latest playoff standings and scenarios.

AFC Playoff Picture

AP Photo/Bart Young

Division Leaders

1. Denver Broncos (12-2, leads AFC West)

2. New England Patriots (11-3, leads AFC East)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, leads AFC South)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6, leads AFC North)

All eyes are on the Jacksonville Jaguars' road game against the Denver Broncos.

If Denver wins and the Los Angeles Chargers lose at the Dallas Cowboys, then the Broncos are the AFC West champions.

The Broncos can even get the AFC's No. 1 seed, but that seems unlikely. In addition to the two aforementioned results, Denver also needs the New England Patriots to lose at the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills to lose at home to the Cleveland Browns.

If needed, the Broncos currently hold the tiebreaker over the New England Patriots due to conference record (7-2 vs. 6-3).

However, if the Jaguars beat Denver, then things get very interesting. The Jaguars would have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos with two games to go. Jacksonville closes the season at the reeling Indianapolis Colts and home against the two-win Titans. It's certainly possible that the Jags could catch Denver in the standings, although they would still need to make up a game with two weeks to go.

Wild-Card Race

5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)

6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)

7. Houston Texans (9-5)

All three of these teams want to win their divisions, but it might be tough.

The Chargers could get there by winning out (at Dallas, vs. Houston Texans and at Denver Broncos) and seeing the Broncos lose vs. the Jaguars or at the Kansas City Chiefs as well.

The Bills have to make up two games on the Patriots, who own the tiebreaker right now by virtue of a better divisional record (3-1 vs. 3-2). In essence, the Bills need the Patriots to lose two of the following: at Baltimore, at the New York Jets, home vs. Miami. The problem is the Pats should be big favorites against the Jets and Dolphins, so the Bills need an upset from a divisional foe.

The Houston Texans are on fire, going 9-2 after an 0-3 start. However, they have to make up a game on the Jags. The tiebreakers are interesting, as both teams split the head-to-head. Houston has the current edge right now in the division (4-1 to 3-1), but both are the same in the conference (7-2).

In the Hunt

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)

9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)

The Indianapolis Colts have lost five of six games and are on the wrong side of tiebreakers within their own division by virtue of previous losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans. They do play those two teams at the end of the season, but Indianapolis has a tough stretch to close the year vs. the 10-4 San Francisco 49ers, vs. the 10-4 Jaguars and at the 9-5 Texans.

Meanwhile, the Ravens control their own destiny even though they are a game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers. That's because they close the season at Pittsburgh. If they win out, then they can jump Pittsburgh, even if the Steelers win their next two games. The Ravens would win the division via the common opponents tiebreaker.

Eliminated

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)

11. Miami Dolphins (6-8)

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)

13. New York Jets (3-11)

14. Cleveland Browns (3-11)

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

16. Tennessee Titans (2-12)

NFC Playoff Picture

AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski

Division Leaders

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3, leads NFC West)

2. Chicago Bears (10-4, leads NFC North)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, leads NFC East)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, leads NFC South)

This was a massive win for the Seahawks. They still have work to do, though, and close against the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers on the road. The simplest scenario for them to win the division and conference is to reign victorious in their final two games.

The Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East if it wins one game or the Dallas Cowboys lose one game. The Eagles play the 4-10 Washington Commanders twice, including once on Saturday on the road, so the division could be sewn up by Sunday.

Meanwhile, the NFC North is heating up. The Chicago Bears now have the half-game lead on the Green Bay Packers, but they host them on Saturday for a big contest. The winner jumps into the NFC North lead. The Bears would take a game-and-a-half edge with two contests remaining. The Packers would have a half-game lead.

The NFC South is a stumble to the finish. Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers could have taken the solo lead in the division, but they fell to the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, respectively.

The Panthers and Bucs will decide this one themselves on the field with a pair of matchups in Weeks 16 and 18. Carolina hosts Tampa Bay on Sunday, and the Bucs will welcome the Panthers into town two weeks later.

The big game to watch in that race will be Carolina hosting Seattle on Dec. 28. If the Panthers win, they could have a leg up in the conference tiebreaker. Right now, Carolina is 5-4, and Tampa Bay is 5-5. The Bucs' other game to round out the season is at the Miami Dolphins on Dec. 28.

If the Bucs and Panthers split their pair, and the Panthers beat the Seahawks, the Tampa Bay-Miami result in irrelevant, as Carolina would win the division via the conference record tiebreaker (their division record would be even at 3-3).

Wild-Card Race

5. Los Angeles Rams (11-4)

6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

7. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)

This was a tough loss to the Rams, and they no longer control their own destiny. The good news is that they have the easiest remaining schedule among the NFC contenders, with a road game at the 5-9 Atlanta Falcons and a home game versus the 3-11 Arizona Cardinals. More likely than not, they'll win out, but they need some help to win the division and conference.

The 49ers, though, actually control their own destiny. If they win out, they'll be 13-4 and own the division record tiebreaker. The Rams and Seahawks would be 13-4 at best in that scenario. San Francisco would have swept Seattle and split with the Rams, giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker over the other two teams (3-1). San Francisco visits the Indianapolis Colts before hosting the Chicago Bears and Seahawks.

Green Bay suffered a tough loss last Sunday at the Denver Broncos, but the path to the NFC North title is still in its hands. A win Saturday at the Chicago Bears puts Green Bay back in the division lead. The Packers don't have it too easy down the stretch, but their schedule (home vs. 7-7 Baltimore Ravens, at the 6-8 Minnesota Vikings) is more manageable than the Bears

In the Hunt

8. Detroit Lions (8-6)

9. Carolina Panthers (7-7)

10. Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)

The Detroit Lions are down but not out after losing 41-34 at the Los Angeles Rams. Realistically, they have to win out and hope the Chicago Bears or Green Bay Packers drop enough for them to get leap-frogged. The Lions do close at the Bears and host the Pittsburgh Steelers and visit the Minnesota Vikings before then.

The Panthers' parameters were discussed earlier. You can flip a coin at this point to decide the division.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are all but out, but they still have a chance. They need to win out and hope the Eagles lost out. Dallas closes at home vs. the Los Angeles Chargers before visiting the four-win Washington Commanders and two-win New York Giants.

Eliminated

11. Minnesota Vikings (6-8)

12. Atlanta Falcons (5-9)

13. New Orleans Saints (4-10)

14. Washington Commanders (4-10)

15. Arizona Cardinals (3-11)

16. New York Giants (2-12)