_0.jpeg?w=1280)
2025 NFL Week 16 Expert Picks
In Week 15, there were four games with double-digit spreads, and 44-year-old Philip Rivers helped lead his team to the only cover among those underdogs. He's already a betting spread legend.
This week, B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell broke down much tighter lines, though they favored a few home underdogs.
As we get closer to the finish line of the regular season, our experts are taking on more calculated risks. Last week, Davenport was a lone wolf on five sides and went 3-2. We have five lone-wolf selections for Week 16.
Here are the standings and picks for the upcoming slate.
ATS Standings
1. Moton: 122-101-1
2. Gagnon 117-106-1
T-3. Hanford: 115-108-1
T-3. Knox: 115-108-1
5. Sobleski: 113-110-1
6. O'Donnell: 109-114-1
7. Davenport: 104-119-1
Lone Wolf Picks: 24-23-1
Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Dec. 17, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
1 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Lions Rams Football")
Knox: Rams (-1.5)
I'm not 100 percent sold on backing the Rams as road favorites in a short-week divisional game—especially with Davante Adams (hamstring) ailing.
Let's not forget that in the last meeting between these two teams, Sam Darnold threw four interceptions, and the Seahawks only ended up losing by two.
However, I think Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula has figured out the blueprint for rattling Darnold—going back to last year's playoffs—and we see a very similar result.
O'Donnell: Seahawks (+1.5)
Darnold threw four interceptions in the first matchup with the Rams. Was he "seeing ghosts" again? Maybe. The Seahawks lost by only two points in that game. He has thrown only one interception, and Seattle hasn't lost since that mid-November showdown.
All three of the Seahawks' losses this season have been by four points or fewer—in fact, those margins were four, then three, then two points, shaving one point off with each defeat.
Maybe that trend continues, so I'll take the hook and a potential one-point loss while hoping for the outright win, as Seattle proves it's learned from that previous game and is very much a contender.
Predictions
Rams: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Seahawks: O'Donnell
Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10)
2 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Raiders Eagles Football")
Davenport: Eagles (-6.5)
There could be some "trap game" potential here with a Week 17 tilt with the Bills looming for the Eagles, and the Commanders did get a win over the Giants in Week 15. But the Washington defense is abysmal—bottom-five against both the run and the pass.
Philadelphia can also clinch the NFC East with a victory. As inconsistent as the Eagles have been offensively, that Washington defense and the stakes of this game equal a Philly cover. You can't argue with math, or at least that's what math people say.
O'Donnell: Commanders (+6.5)
The Eagles just beat up on the Raiders in Philly. They had lost their previous three games while scoring only an average of 18 points per game.
With Marcus Mariota now the official starter for the rest of the season, the former Eagle provides some offensive stability in what has been a brutal stop-start season for Washington.
I expect a spirited fight from the Commanders while thinking I still really can't trust the Philly offense.
Predictions
Eagles: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Commanders: Gagnon, O'Donnell
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Chicago Bears (10-4)
3 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Browns Bears Football")
Gagnon: Bears (+1.5)
The Bears put up a fight right to the end two weeks ago in Green Bay. Now, they're at home, and the Packers have been gutted by new injuries.
This Chicago defense makes big plays, and the Packers can be a little sloppy.
The Bears win a close game.
O'Donnell: Packers (-1.5)
I don't trust either team. I think both are frauds, and neither will do anything of significance in the postseason.
The Packers are coming off a tough road loss to the Broncos and can't afford back-to-back Ls if they want to control their postseason fate.
I'll lay these points with the more experienced team in this position.
Predictions
Packers: Davenport, O'Donnell
Bears: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Buffalo Bills (10-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-11)
4 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Bills Patriots Football")
Gagnon: Browns (+10)
In seven home games this season, the Browns have been outscored by a total of four points. Meanwhile, the supposedly mighty Bills have outscored their opponents by just 3.1 points per game since Week 10.
For the Bills, this could be a bit of a road trap between a thrilling victory in New England and a potential Super Bowl preview against Philadelphia.
Buffalo is 3-6 against the spread coming off wins this season, and I'm thinking that drops to 3-7 as it wins a closer-than-expected tilt in this spot.
Sobleski: Bills (-10)
At this point, there's no reason whatsoever to believe in the Browns. Myles Garrett is the only player on the squad seemingly playing for anything, with the NFL's single-season sack record on the line.
This season, Cleveland has lost five consecutive games where it faced an opponent that currently owns a winning record by an average of over 20 points per loss.
Conversely, Josh Allen is back to his Superman level of performance, with Buffalo still vying to win the AFC East.
Predictions
Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Browns: Gagnon, O'Donnell
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (7-7)
5 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Panthers Saints Football")
Hanford: Panthers (+3)
The Bucs might win this game, but I expect it to be a fight to the finish.
The Panthers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Saints last week, but a win here improves their playoff odds exponentially, while a loss makes it very difficult for them to sniff the postseason.
Because of that, I expect urgency. And the Bucs haven't had any sense of urgency in over a month.
I think the Carolina defense makes things tough for the Tampa Bay passing attack, and this one comes down to the wire before it's decided by less than a field goal either way.
Moton: Buccaneers (-3)
Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles ripped his team in a postgame press conference following a loss to the Atlanta Falcons last Thursday. The Buccaneers will either respond with one of their best performances or continue to falter on a losing streak.
Tampa Bay has a better overall team, so expect the former scenario to play out.
As the Bucs' starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield is 4-0 against the Panthers. Tampa Bay won each of those games by at least three points. With a healthy wide receiver group that includes Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan, he carves up Carolina's defense for a win by a touchdown or more.
Predictions
Buccaneers: Knox, Moton
Panthers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) at Tennessee Titans (2-12)
6 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Chargers Chiefs Football")
Knox: Chiefs (-3.5)
Patrick Mahomes is done for the season, and the Chiefs have been eliminated from playoff contention. However, I can't envision their players quitting in a meaningless matchup against the Titans.
I can also see backup quarterback Gardner Minshew trying his hardest to make the most of his opportunity before 2026 free agency.
Ultimately, we'll see the Chiefs take out their frustrations on the Titans in blowout fashion.
Sobleski: Titans (+3.5)
No Mahomes means the Chiefs are an unknown commodity through the final three weeks of the regular season.
Minshew can do some things, but he'll inevitably make a critical error or two, as he always does.
Quietly, Titans rookie Cam Ward has played his best ball as of late. Tennessee still hasn't figured everything out, though the Chiefs could easily have a huge letdown with the Mahomes injury and being booted out of the postseason for the first time in over a decade.
Predictions
Chiefs: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Titans: Gagnon, Sobleski
Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
7 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Chargers Chiefs Football")
Gagnon: Chargers (-1.5)
The Cowboys' season realistically went up in flames Sunday night, while the Chargers just keep gaining momentum with stellar defense.
They proved they can handle a tough road environment when they eliminated the Chiefs from playoff contention at Arrowhead in Week 15, and there's no reason to believe they can't keep that rolling as the more resilient and upbeat team Sunday in Dallas.
Moton: Cowboys (+1.5)
If the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Commanders on Saturday, they would eliminate Dallas from playoff contention.
On Sunday, the Cowboys may not have anything to play for in terms of postseason implications, but this game is their home season finale. Dak Prescott and Co. will be motivated to go out on a positive note in front of their fans.
Also, Dallas leads the league in pressure rate at 30.8 percent. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus will find ways to make life difficult for Justin Herbert, who's taken 49 sacks, which is tied with Geno Smith and Cam Ward for most in the league.
Predictions
Chargers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Cowboys: Moton
Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New York Giants (2-12)
8 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Vikings Cowboys Football")
Hanford: Giants (+3)
This is probably just a stubborn choice by me.
The Giants defense has been mostly putrid all year, and it would be in the team's best interest to keep losing and lock up the No. 1 pick in the draft. Does Jaxson Dart know that, though? The kid plays hard, almost to a fault, and I expect him to try his best to earn a win in front of the home crowd on Sunday.
J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings have had two strong weeks in a row, so I expect them to stumble a bit here. I like an ugly game in the cold here, and the Giants keep it closer than expected.
O'Donnell: Vikings (-3)
The Vikings may have turned some form of a corner in the last two weeks, becoming a more complete team. Maybe?
The Giants looked disinterested against a Washington team they could have beaten. It's been a long, tough season for New York, and the late bye week was no help. It's hard to trust a team whose focus is likely on the offseason and next year by now.
Predictions
Vikings: Knox, Moton, Sobleski, O'Donnell
Giants: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford
Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) at Miami Dolphins (6-8)
9 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Dolphins Steelers Football")
Knox: Dolphins (+2.5)
The Dolphins' lackadaisical effort at the end of Monday night suggested they weren't particularly interested in trying to mount a comeback against the Steelers. However, Cincinnati's effort in Week 15 suggested the Bengals weren't even interested in being on the field.
Even with a QB change, I expect Miami to get back to a run-heavy approach against a bad Cincinnati defense. I also expect the Bengals to largely go through the motions from here on out.
In a game that won't be much fun for anyone—including Joe Burrow—I'll take the home dog.
Hanford: Bengals (-2.5)
Both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, but the Dolphins may have hit a tipping point this week as they bench Tua Tagovailoa for Quinn Ewers.
The Bengals have had two tough games in a row against Bills and Ravens, teams that were fighting hard for playoff seeding.
Miami isn't in that category. This game has shootout potential as both defenses have struggled with consistency all year, but give me the better QB in that case.
Burrow leads the Bengals to a win by at least a field goal.
Predictions
Bengals: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
Dolphins: Davenport, Knox, Sobleski
New York Jets (3-11) at New Orleans Saints (4-10)
10 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Panthers Saints Football")
Knox: Saints (-4.5)
It looks like we're all on the Saints here, and that seems perfectly logical.
New Orleans has knocked off teams still fighting for the postseason in back-to-back weeks, and it appears to have something in rookie quarterback Tyler Shough.
New York has had no quarterback security and just got shellacked 48-20 by the Jaguars. However, there is a path to a Jets cover, or even an outright victory.
While the Saints have looked better in recent weeks, they still rank 29th in scoring offense. If New York's firing of defensive coordinator Steve Wilks galvanizes its defense for a week, this could be an ugly one.
Sometimes, logic doesn't apply when ugly games and bad teams are involved.
Moton: Saints (-4.5)
The Jets are in tank mode. On Wednesday, head coach Aaron Glenn announced the team will start undrafted rookie Brady Cook for consecutive weeks while Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields serve as a backup.
Gang Green is intentionally starting its worst quarterback against a surging Saints squad that has won consecutive games and may have found a starter in Shough.
New Orleans wins by at least a touchdown in its home finale.
Predictions
Saints: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) at Denver Broncos (12-2)
11 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Packers Broncos Football")
Moton: Broncos (-3)
The Jaguars have won five consecutive games, knocking off the Los Angeles Chargers at home, beating the Arizona Cardinals in overtime, then dominating the Indianapolis Colts (who lost Daniel Jones early in that contest), the Tennessee Titans, and the New York Jets.
On the road, Jacksonville will face its toughest opponent of the season. With the league's best record, Denver is vying for home-field advantage in the playoffs.
If it's difficult for you to trust a Jaguars team with an offense that ranks 25th on third-down conversion rate and a quarterback who's completing a little less than 60 percent of his passes, this is the spot to take the slight favorite and the better squad.
Sobleski: Jaguars (+3)
Jacksonville is not getting enough credit for how well it has played since Thanksgiving.
Granted, the Jaguars have faced three straight reeling opponents, while the Broncos own the NFL's best record.
However, this selection is a combination of Trevor Lawrence playing arguably the best football of his career during that stretch while taking the points.
Predictions
Jaguars: Hanford, Sobleski
Broncos: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
12 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Cardinals Texans Football")
Davenport: Cardinals (+2.5)
In fairness, this analyst's lifetime record picking for/against the Falcons is 0-232. Atlanta is also fresh off an upset win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the Cardinals haven't won since the "6-7" meme was cool.
Since the Falcons' 3-2 start (and last back-to-back victories), though, they are 2-7, and Arizona has had some success moving the ball with Jacoby Brissett under center. After Atlanta's last win, it then lost to the Jets.
The home underdog wins outright.
Hanford: Falcons (-2.5)
The Cardinals defense has allowed an average of 42.5 points over its last two outings while allowing over six yards per play and almost 400 total yards, and the Falcons can lay it on them again this week.
Arizona doesn't have an answer for Bijan Robinson, and Kirk Cousins may get Drake London back a week after Kyle Pitts exploded with a historic performance.
There's always the risk of a backdoor cover here with Brissett dominating garbage time, but this team has been dreadful for the last month-plus.
The Falcons have found ways to lose all season, but they're the better team in this one and will show it.
Predictions
Falcons: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox
Cardinals: Davenport, O'Donnell, Moton, Sobleski
Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) at Houston Texans (9-5)
13 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Cardinals Texans Football")
Moton: Raiders (+14.5)
Most people will focus on the matchup between the Houston Texans' fierce defensive front, featuring Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. who have double-digit sacks, and one of the league's worst offensive lines.
If Geno Smith returns from injury for this contest, the Texans' edge-rushers will drop him multiple times.
That being said, the Texans are getting nearly a three-possession line, which is too much for a team that ranks 17th in scoring and averages about 23 points per game.
Offensively, the Raiders are dreadful, but they're capable of a backdoor cover, as we saw in Week 14 against the Denver Broncos.
Over at DraftKings, the total for this game is set at 38.5. The Raiders score a late garbage-time touchdown to cover.
O'Donnell: Texans (-14.5)
This is way too many points for my liking. However, the Raiders are averaging 11.5 points per game over their eight-game losing streak. That includes one 29-point anomaly and two shutouts.
Averaging fewer points than the spread against the league's toughest defense—I'll risk these points with a surging Houston squad against arguably the NFL's worst team.
Predictions
Raiders: Moton
Texans: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) at Detroit Lions (8-6)
14 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Lions Rams Football")
Hanford: Lions (-7)
The Steelers played their best game of the season on MNF in their win over the Dolphins, but the Lions are looking to get right here at home. I don't think that bodes well for Pittsburgh.
The Lions defense is banged up, but I don't think Pittsburgh has the personnel to take advantage of that in a game where it's going to need to score points to keep pace.
The Rams managed to bottle up Jahmyr Gibbs last week for the most part, which means he's due for an epic performance here.
Injuries aside, the Lions hold every advantage here from coaching to personnel, and it's enough to cover.
Sobleski: Steelers (+7)
Pittsburgh still isn't where it needs to be, but it controls the AFC North, and Aaron Rodgers has played well over the last two weeks. Also, Mike Tomlin's defense showed up against the Dolphins, who looked like a potentially difficult matchup because of how Miami previously ran the football.
The Lions offense is far more potent, but Detroit simply hasn't found itself this season. The Lions have been far too inconsistent.
As long as Rodgers and Co. can move the ball, the Steelers can go into Ford Field and outright win.
Predictions
Steelers: Sobleski
Lions: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
New England Patriots (11-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
15 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Bills Patriots Football")
Davenport: Patriots (+3)
This spread being where it is shows how close this game should be.
The Ravens have to win, especially if Pittsburgh knocks off the Lions earlier on Sunday. But the Patriots need this one too, after blowing a 21-0 lead at home to the Bills, which isn't a good look for a team vying for the AFC's top seed.
The Ravens have an average defense at best, haven't beaten a team with a winning record since Week 8, and they have dropped two straight at M&T Bank Stadium.
Take the points in a Patriots victory.
Gagnon: Ravens (-3)
Lamar Jackson is back. At least it's looked that way the last couple weeks, and now this is close to a must-win home finale against a young and inexperienced Patriots squad that is having a great season but might be shook by a Week 15 collapse at home against Buffalo.
New England is 6-0 on the road this season, but the Pats barely survived in Tampa and Cincinnati, and I think they're due to finally lay a road egg against a team due for a big home win in prime time.
Jackson and Derrick Henry take over this game, and the Ravens coast to a win.
Predictions
Patriots: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Ravens: Gagnon
San Francisco 49ers (10-4) at Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
16 of 16.jpg?w=684 "COLTS SEAHAWKS")
Davenport: 49ers (-5.5)
The footage of the high-schoolers Philip Rivers coaches cheering his touchdown pass last week was fun.
Frankly, the fact that the Colts were in a game against arguably the NFC's best team (11-3 is 11-3) until the end is a testament to just how good and tough a quarterback he was—he even played a postseason game on a torn ACL in 2007. But he is a 44-year-old quarterback who threw for 120 yards last week.
Since their Week 10 loss to the Rams, the Niners have won four straight, including two on the road. All were by double digits.
Sobleski: Colts (+5.5)
Indianapolis' back is against the wall.
The Colts have to win to keep a glimmer of their playoff hopes alive. They're at home. It's a prime-time game on Monday Night Football. Rivers showed he can do just enough to keep this team in play. The desperation with which Shane Steichen's team should enter this contest can be enough to keep it close again.
The Niners have played extremely well over the last four games, but San Francisco better expect to take Indianapolis' best shot.
Predictions
49ers: Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell
Colts: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
.jpg?w=480)
.jpg?w=480 "NFL Draft Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Eagles Stole WR Lemon from Steelers")
.jpg?w=600 "Lemon 'Shocked' by Eagles")
