Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: How to Use Advanced Metrics for DFS

Playing fantasy baseball without utilizing advanced metrics is equivalent to running with your legs tied together. You're not going to get far.

Implementing sabermetrics doesn't give gamers an edge on everyone else, but ignoring them puts players in a grave hole. Serious fantasy savants, especially DFS regulars, absorb every possible tidbit before reaching a decision.

The days of batting average, RBI and wins dominating the discussion are long gone. Along with constantly checking matchups, lineups and weather, players need to become heavily acquainted with FanGraphs and other data hot spots.

Of course, just knowing a number doesn't help without understanding its meaning. Let's explore common metrics, explaining their purpose and value to DraftKings contestants. 

Weighted on-Base Average (wOBA)

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Definition (per FanGraphs)

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Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.

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Why It's Useful

While OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) is also a helpful tool that usually yields similar conclusions, a player's on-base acumen can get lost behind power gains or vice versa. Rather than jamming the two stats together, wOBA carefully stirs them into a handy, catch-all stat.

This is especially useful in DFS. While standard seasonal scoring typically doesn't reward walks, doubles or triples, DraftKings dishes out two points for a walk, five for a double and eight for a triple. All hits are not appraised equally, and wOBA understands that better than batting average and on-base percentage.

How to Use 

While Carlos Santana still reaches base at an above-average .355 clip, he holds a .331 wOBA. His 16.5 walk percentage is great, but his disappointing power limits the slugger's impact. A .225 average doesn't give him enough credit, but the high on-base percentage doesn't make him an elite DFS option unless the pop comes back.

Related Metric

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)

Another gauge of a hitter's overall worth, wRC+ measures a player's value compared to an average hitter in terms of runs produced. It's graded on a scale where 100 is average. While wOBA is more highly regarded, wRC+ comes in handy when evaluating park factors.

Fly-Ball Percentage (FB%)

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Definition

The percentage of fly balls among all batted balls.

Why It's Useful

Gamers ultimately want home runs. Dingers win contests, particularly tournaments, so it makes sense to target hitters who send the ball flying while exploiting pitchers who allow elevated contact.

Fly-ball hitters, however, are not automatically stars. Chris Carter's 53.2 percent leads MLB, but he also makes contact less than anybody else. Yet despite his struggles, he's too dangerous to go ignored in tournaments when facing a vulnerable fly-ball pitcher.

How to Use

Dan Haren is enjoying a solid season, but he remains one of baseball's most unapologetic fly-ball pitchers. That has worked well for him inside the spacious Marlins Park, but he's prime prey on the road, where he has already relinquished 14 home runs. 

A left-handed slugger with heavy fly-ball tendencies (e.g. Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda) makes a golden play against the veteran righty. 

Related Metrics

Line-Drive (LD), Ground-Ball (GB) Percentage 

The other possible batted-ball outcomes, line drives are more likely to transfer into hits than ground balls. Target hitters with higher line-drive rates and pitchers who generate grounders. Be wary of ground-ball hitters outside of pure speedsters, who are typically risky plays anyway.

Although Dallas Keuchel doesn't strike out batters like an ace, he has enjoyed incredible success by inducing a hearty dosage of ground balls. Meanwhile, baseball's second-highest line-drive percentage has led to Julio Teheran's underwhelming season. 

Home Run/Fly-Ball Percentage (HR/FB) 

The percentage of fly balls that clear the fence for homers. An abnormally high or low HR/FB (around 10 percent is considered average) will often even out, especially for pitchers. Zack Greinke wouldn't have his incredible 1.37 ERA without a 5.8 HR/FB percentage, below his 9.1 career rate. 

Hard-Hit Percentage

You guessed it: the percentage of batted balls hit hard. J.D. Martinez has doubled down on last year's breakout with baseball's second-highest hard-hit percentage behind the injured Giancarlo Stanton. It's past time to admit he's for real.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Definition (per FanGraphs)

"Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing."

Why It's Useful

The traditional barometers of pitching, ERA and WHIP wildly ebb and flow, making them poor predictive models for continued success over smaller sample sizes. They also ignore defense and pure luck on batted balls.

FIP uses strikeouts, walks, home runs and hit by pitches, outcomes a pitcher controls, to provide a more individualized assessment of his performance. Rather than falling for an unsustainable hot streak, chase the most skilled hurlers and hope everything else falls in line.

How to Use

A year after winning the American League Cy Young Award with a 2.44 ERA, Corey Kluber is 5-11 with a 3.59 ERA. What's wrong with him? Nothing.

The Cleveland Indians ace still nets elite strikeout and walk rates, giving him a 2.54 FIP, ranking fourth behind Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer. He's the same stud as last year, but his hits have clustered together in a harmful way. As a result, he remains a top-priced option when taking the mound.

Don't be afraid to pay up when given the right matchup.

Related Metrics

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) 

Like FIP, BABIP acknowledges elements a pitcher can't control. Most pitchers with a higher ERA than FIP, including Kluber, have bloated BABIPs.  The measure of hits on batted balls in play often indicates strong or poor fortune for a batter or pitcher, but the metric is best used with a prior reference point.

Johnny Cueto carries baseball's third-lowest BABIP among qualified starters behind Chris Young and Greinke, but he also sports a .271 career mark. As a result, the righty notoriously outperforms his FIP, posting a career 3.21 ERA and 3.80 FIP. That won't change behind a stellar Kansas City Royals defense.

On the other hand, Carlos Carrasco has endured a similar plight to Kluber. Despite brandishing a 2.90 FIP, he is sullied with a 4.26 ERA, frequently disappointing DraftKings players paying for the elite strikeout artist. If the bloated .341 BABIP drops, he'll enjoy another dominant second half. 

Expected FIP (xFIP) 

Expected FIP takes another step by normalizing a pitcher's HR/FB rate. Rubby De La Rosa's 4.57 FIP matches his 4.52 ERA, but his 3.50 xFIP depicts a hurler capable of breaking out by lowering his 20.2 HR/FB percentage.

Skill-Interactive ERA

An alternative to FIP, SIERA is park-adjusted and factors in batted balls. SIERA weighs strikeouts even more than FIP, making it the preferred stat for some DFS players. FIP, xFIP and SIERA all place Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale first and second, respectively.

Strikeout Percentage (K%)

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Definition

The percentage of plate appearances of total batters faced ending in strikeouts.

Why It's Useful

This one is simple, right? DraftKings puts a premium on strikeouts, awarding two points for each one accumulated. Even if a Mark Buehrle-esque contact pitcher patches together six or seven solid innings, it won't amount to much without any punchouts, especially if his teammates don't guide him to a victory.

Also, strikeouts are a bankable skill a pitcher controls. Owners can feel comfortable in Francisco Liriano fanning a bunch of Chicago Cubs, but they can't count on Phil Hughes avoiding contact the entire evening.

How to Use

Chris Archer has leaped from solid young starter to superstar by upping his strikeout percentage from 21.1 to 30.3. All those added whiffs support his career-best 2.67 ERA and 2.62 FIP, justifying his high sticker price.

Shelby Miller's breakout, however, is tougher to trust with a 20.7 strikeout percentage, up from last year but on par with his career 20.4 percentage. He's a solid starter possessing a 3.16 FIP and 49.2 ground-ball percentage, but expect his 2.27 ERA to regress. Use with caution, most notably against weak National League East opposition.

Gamers also want to monitor opponents' strikeout tendencies. The Cubs and Houston Astros have contact issues, but the Royals represent a terrible matchup because of their ability to put the ball in play.

Related Metrics

Walk Percentage (BB %)

DraftKings penalizes 0.6 points for a walk, but a base on balls can also lead to more runs and fewer innings pitched due to a rising pitch count. While a strikeout/ground-out extraordinaire (think Tyson Ross) can overcome a high walk percentage against the right opponent, wild cards like Trevor Bauer and Carlos Rodon are tough to trust.

Contact Percentage

This is exactly what it sounds like: the percentage of offerings in which batters make contact. Less contact means more strikeouts.

Swinging-Strike Percentage

The percentage of pitches where opposing hitters swing and miss. Whiffs obviously help the pursuit of K's, so a swinging-strike percentage can foreshadow a future rise or dip in strikeouts. Despite an underwhelming 19.7 strikeout percentage, Erasmo Ramirez's swinging-strike percentage has risen to an impressive 12.4 percent. Perhaps his hot hand isn't all smoke and mirrors.  

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Contest scoring information available on DraftKings.com.