NHL Trade Grades for Tristan Jarry to the Oilers, Stuart Skinner to the Penguins

Who doesn't love a good shake-up trade in the middle of winter? The Edmonton Oilers have gone stale, and, big surprise, goaltending has been a point of contention. Same as it ever was.

For the umpteenth time, they are changing the mix. Former all-star Stuart Skinner and depth defenseman Brett Kulak head to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Tristan Jarry is now the man the Oilers are putting their faith in.

Pound-for-pound, this may be an even bolder decision by the Pittsburgh Penguins. They unexpectedly found themselves in a playoff position, with no pressure to do anything.

Separately, but in concert with the big goaltending move, the Oilers acquired defenseman Spencer Stastney from the Nashville Predators. Presumably, to replace Brett Kulak.

Let's analyze these tandem swaps and grade the implications for the Oilers, Penguins, and Predators.

Edmonton Oilers

Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images

Stop me if you've heard this before: It's the middle of an NHL season and the Oilers are in trouble in part due to spiraling goaltending.

The Oilers rank 26th among 32 NHL teams in goals against per 60 minutes. There's plenty of blame to go around, but goaltending is undeniably where the discussion starts. With Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard between the pipes, the Oilers rank dead last in the NHL by save percentage.

In theory, Tristan Jarry is one of the better solutions to a chronic problem Edmonton has tried to solve for a decade now. Jarry was an uber-talented goaltender as far back as his junior hockey days, and at various points in his 307 regular-season NHL games, he has looked like one of the top 10 goaltenders in the NHL. He was twice an NHL All-Star (2020 and 2022). He's played well in 13 starts this season and has saved 9.1 goals above expected, per Evolving Hockey.

The problems for Jarry are inconsistency and an inability to take on significant workloads. Jarry has started more than 50 games just once in his NHL career, and though COVID-shortened seasons may have something to do with it, the rest of his career hardly earns that benefit of the doubt. Jarry has endured numerous injuries in his NHL career. Even during his best NHL seasons, he was expected to split the workload with a tandem partner, whether it was Matt Murray, Casey DeSmith, Alex Nedjelkovic, or, this year, Artūrs Šilovs.

Jarry's career lows also match his upside. He's had some truly brutal stretches of play, and his limited playoff record is underwhelming. The 30-year-old was so bad last season that the Penguins put him on waivers — which he cleared — and sent him down to the AHL for 12 games.

There is no doubt that Edmonton needed to try something new in net, and Jarry is just that. How much more confident can anyone really be in him to address their problems? The Oilers need a stabilizing force who can handle a heavy workload, both in terms of per-game scoring-chance intensity and in stringing together several starts.

Jarry is an injury-prone goaltender who's played his best hockey when splitting duties behind defensively stringent Penguins teams. Talk to any NHL goaltender, and they'll tell you there's a huge difference between playing well for 40 starts versus playing well for 60.

The risk involved here is quite significant. Jarry holds a $5.375 million cap hit through the 2028 season. No team wanted to touch that via waiver claim last season. Now, the Oilers are moving a second-round pick plus veteran defenseman Brett Kulak for the pleasure, as well as a third-round pick for Spencer Stastney to replace Kulak, who was a necessary inclusion to make the math work.

Stastney is a nice depth defenseman. He's a capable skater who moves the puck proficiently from the defensive zone. He's 26 years old and under team control for the rest of this season.

This is the prototypical Edmonton Oilers goaltending move. They're operating from a position of desperation, and everyone else knows it, so they give up what is effectively a second-round pick and two third-round picks (Kulak's deadline value plus Stastney) for a volatile goaltender whose value is largely predicated on recent success over a small sample.

Is there a world where it all aligns for Jarry and he can stay healthy and consistent enough to justify a true starting goaltending role in Edmonton? Yes. Is that a reliable forecast? Absolutely not. Even if he can give them good tandem minutes, the Oilers are still a goaltender short.

Grade: C-

Pittsburgh Penguins

Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

In a certain respect, what the Pittsburgh Penguins are doing here is far more interesting. The Penguins have surprised everyone this season and sit sixth in the Eastern Conference by points percentage. It's not a fluke, either. They're playing good hockey.

Jarry is not a random passerby in Pittsburgh. The organization drafted the Edmonton-native in 2023, and he's spent parts of 10 NHL seasons as a Penguin.

The Penguins, unlike the Oilers, were under no pressure to make a trade. This is a move for the adrenaline junkies. It's right in line with GM Kyle Dubas's ethos. If he sees an opportunity to extract value, then that's a good enough reason to roll the dice.

The Penguins aren't starved for cap space, but Jarry's contract could become a detriment in a year or two when Pittsburgh may look to operate closer to the cap ceiling. Again, this is a contract they literally couldn't give away last season.

They're also moving Jarry at a time when leverage is on their side. The Oilers are clearly desperate, but Dubas is also considering the Penguins' timeline. The 24-year-old Šilovs is playing NHL-caliber hockey this season, and the Penguins have options in the pipeline whom they really believe in. Fourth-round pick Sergei Mirashov has dominated the AHL and shown well in spot NHL starts this season, while 23-year-old Joel Blomqvist is also a legitimate NHL prospect performing well in the AHL.

So the Penguins move Jarry while other teams need him, rather than at a later date when other teams know the Penguins need to move him by any means possible. They get a second-round pick and defenseman Brett Kulak, who is one of the league's best minute-eating third-pairing defensemen. He'll play a role and could be parlayed into a third-round pick at the trade deadline. Skinner's contract expires at the end of the season. Perhaps the Penguins can help him find his game and swap him for a draft pick as well. From the standpoint of value and leverage, this is a no-brainer for Pittsburgh.

The caveat is that teams don't operate on paper. These are humans who step onto the ice and win or lose games. How does losing a long-tenured teammate play out in the locker room? Could a drop-off in goaltending performance sink the season? These are the less tangible risks that Dubas is accepting in order to better position the team financially and in terms of assets.

Grade: A

Nashville Predators

Jonathan NACKSTRAND / AFP

Change is badly needed in Nashville. This team straight-up stinks.

The build is flawed in ways that aren't rectifiable in the short term. The phrase "don't throw out the baby with the bathwater" does not apply here because there is little worth salvaging. Better to err towards the side of blowing it all up.

Spencer Stastney is an interesting choice for first out the door, though. He's 26 years old, carries an $875K cap hit this season, is a restricted free agent this summer, and is one of the few players whose performance has matched his deployment and expectations.

Stastney is a smooth skater who manages the puck well from the defensive end. He won't provide too much production on the score sheet, but he can help a team advance the puck into offensive situations. The 6-foot lefty isn't a bruise,r but he is a respectable defensive player who can play against second PP units on the penalty kill.

Nashville needs to rebuild the roster, and the emphasis will be on moving on from players who are older, expensive, or not NHL-caliber. He's a strange player to be first out the door. Ultimately, Stastney was never going to move the needle for a subpar Predators team, and a third-round pick is a congruent value for Stastney.

Grade: B