Winners and Losers of the Tristan Jarry to the Oilers Trade

The Edmonton Oilers needed to do something with their goalie situation, and have needed to for a couple of years now.

On Friday, they finally did, sending goalie Stuart Skinner, defenseman Brett Kulak, and a 2029 second-round draft pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for goalie Tristan Jarry and minor league forward Sam Poulin.

Let's take a look at some of the biggest winners and losers from that trade.

Winner: Kyle Dubas

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During his first year running the Penguins, general manager Kyle Dubas whiffed on a couple of big moves. The free agent signing of Ryan Graves was a big swing and a miss. The trade for Reilly Smith whiffed. And the decision to re-sign Jarry to a five-year, $26.8 million contract was a flop.

While he remains stuck with Graves' contract, he was able to dump the remainder of Jarry's contract (two-and-a-half years remaining) on Friday without having to retain a single penny of it.

That is a stunning development, given that Jarry was placed on waivers just one year ago and went through the entire league unclaimed.

To Jarry's credit, he has bounced back from that waiver-wire trip and temporary demotion to the American Hockey League and has played mostly solid hockey since. But the Penguins have seen this from Jarry before, and his entire career has been full of brief, half-season glimpses of strong play before the bottom falls out later in the year and in spotlight moments.

Will that happen again? If it does, it's not the Penguins' concern.

The return on the trade is not as big of a deal as the money going out and the path it clears for Sergei Murashov either later this season or next season.

He also gets two expiring contracts in Skinner and Kulak, which gives the Penguins significant salary cap savings over the next two full seasons.

Skinner and Jarry are on a similar tier in the league's goaltending hierarchy, while Kulak is a serviceable third-pairing defenseman that could be a short-term upgrade to a team that needs defensive help. He could also be an attractive trade chip in March.

The second-round pick is not until 2029, but does add to the Penguins stockpile of draft picks that Dubas has been accumulating in recent years. Maybe it is a trade chip for a contending Penguins team.

Loser: Stan Bowman

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Credit to Bowman for recognizing that his goaltending was not good enough and needed a change.

No credit to the Oilers' GM for giving up assets and taking on term to acquire a goalie that is most likely no different than the one he and the team deemed to not be good enough.

What is the vision here?

Do the Oilers really see that much of a difference between Skinner and Jarry that it is worth giving up a serviceable NHL defenseman (Kulak) and a future second-round pick (even if it is four years away) to acquire a goalie that makes more than $5 million against the cap over the next two full seasons? This seems like a lateral move at best, and even if it is an upgrade, it may not be enough of one to move the needle for Edmonton in the playoffs.

For all of Skinner's flaws and shortcomings, he at least put together strong postseason performances the past two years to help get the Oilers into the Stanley Cup Final. Jarry's career has be defined by abysmal playoff performances that have resulted in him never winning a playoff series with an .891 career save percentage in eight playoff games.

It just does not seem like a great risk in both the short-term or the long-term.

At least Skinner has no contractual commitment beyond this season. If it does not work with him again, you let him walk and try to find somebody in the offseason.

Now you might be stuck with Jarry whether it works or does not work.

The Bowman name carries a lot of weight in the NHL and clearly gives Stan a lot of runway to work with. The end of his tenure in Chicago was a disaster that left the Blackhawks organization in shambles and in need of a full-scale rebuild.

Despite that, he was still hired to walk into a situation with two of the best players in hockey (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl), in the prime of their careers, to try and get them a championship. So far, none of his biggest moves have made much sense. This is not how you maximize the careers of two superstars still searching for their first Stanley Cup.

Winner: Sergei Murashov

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The Pittsburgh Penguins' farm system and level of young talent have rapidly improved over the past two years, and some of it is starting to make an impact at the NHL level. As much as it has improved, they still lack the one player who could be a superstar-level, major-impact player. Murashov could, in fact, be that player. Not only because of his skill and talent, but also because of the position he plays (goalie).

There is no position in hockey that is more difficult to project from year to year, and that is especially true with prospects, but there is also no position that can make a bigger impact on a team if they get it right. Murashov's ceiling is higher than any prospect the Penguins have. It is just a matter of whether or not they can help him reach it. Or even get close to it.

Since arriving in North America at the start of the 2024-25 season, Murashov has dominated every level he has played at and had a strong initial showing in Pittsburgh earlier this season (.914 save percentage in four appearances) when Jarry was sidelined with an injury.

Jarry's trade clears the path for Murashov to eventually have a chance to take over the starting goalie job in Pittsburgh. It might happen sooner than later. In his first 11 appearances in the American Hockey League this season, he has a .943 save percentage. In 26 games in the E a year ago, he had a .922 save percentage. In 27 games in the American Hockey League over the past two seasons, he has a .928 save percentage.

He is the future in goal for the Penguins. Now it is just a matter of when he starts getting the bulk of the playing time there.

Loser: Connor McDavid

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McDavid would never look at it this way, but we can. When he signed his latest contract with the Oilers, he did the franchise a gigantic favor by not taking a raise, which actually made his contract a significantly lower percentage of the salary cap in future seasons as it continues to rise. That, in theory, should give the Oilers some much-needed flexibility to make the moves they need to help get this team over the hump and get these guys a championship.

The Oilers used most of that cap savings to take on the contract of a goalie that, again, may not be better than what they already had.

The Oilers' depth is so bad that when neither McDavid nor Draisaitl is on the ice, the team performs like a lottery team. As of Friday, they have been outscored 16-36 in 5-on-5 situations when neither player is on the ice (Via Natural Stat Trick), while owning an expected goals share of only 45.1. That is simply bad hockey. Depth around these two superstars has been a constant problem for the Oilers for most of their careers, and this season, it is as bad as ever.

Now they have $5 million per year tied up in a goalie who is a huge risk over the next two years, instead of prioritizing more help elsewhere.

Maybe it works. Maybe Jarry puts it together after a decade in the NHL and helps them win a championship, making all of this analysis look stupid. Maybe Bowman and the Oilers can have a huge "I-told-you-so" moment. Weird things can happen in sports. But looking at it from a big-picture perspective, this all seems like a badly flawed plan.

Winner: Fresh Starts for Jarry and Samuel Poulin

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If there is one thing you might point to in favor of Edmonton here, it is the human element that comes with a fresh start in a new environment. Maybe that's what Jarry, and to a smaller extent, Poulin need.

Jarry spent a decade in Pittsburgh and faced constant criticism and pressure for his inconsistency. He went through waivers, a demotion to the minor leagues, got booed, and was just not seen as a viable long-term answer. Now he goes into a place that should be a contender with a clean slate to work with.

It is a change to re-write his narrative. For the Oilers' sake, they better hope he can.

Poulin was a first-round pick by the Penguins in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, but has never shown any impact at the NHL level. In 15 career games, he has zero goals and two assists. He is having a strong year in the American Hockey League, but he is 25 years old, and it was clear it was probably never going to happen for him with the Penguins. He also gets his clean slate to try to rewrite his narrative.