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2025 NFL Week 15 Expert Picks
With only four weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL season, Bleacher Report's experts are taking big swings to cash in on strong finishes.
B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell nearly came to a unanimous decision on half of the contests in Week 15, but one name went against the group as the lone wolf for each of those games.
One analyst in particular took several calculated risks that could help him make up a ton of ground in the standings or leave him well behind the competition.
Here are our standings against the spread and breakdowns for Week 15 games.
ATS Standings
1. Moton: 114-93-1
2. Gagnon 109-98-1
3. Knox: 108-99-1
4. Hanford: 106-101-1
5. Sobleski: 104-103-1
6. O'Donnell: 100-107-1
7. Davenport: 96-111-1
Lone Wolf Picks: 20-19-1
Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Dec. 9, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
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Moton: Buccaneers (-4.5)
Tied with the Carolina Panthers for first place in the NFC South, the Buccaneers will play with urgency in this matchup at home. Chris Godwin is playing more snaps as he makes a recovery from a fibula injury, and fellow wideouts Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan could suit up for this contest.
Even without Evans or McMillan, Tampa Bay wins this NFC South showdown by a touchdown, with Bucky Irving running through the Falcons' 24th-ranked run defense.
O'Donnell: Falcons (+4.5)
The Falcons are 3-0 ATS as away 'dogs this season. The Bucs are 1-4 as home favorites and have only two wins this season by more than 4.5 points. There is nothing I trust about Atlanta, and the club burns me more often than not, but I can't ignore these numbers.
Predictions
Falcons: O'Donnell
Buccaneers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Buffalo Bills (9-4) at New England Patriots (11-2)
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Hanford: Bills (-1.5)
The Patriots haven't swept the Bills since 2019, and I don't see that changing here.
Josh Allen and Buffalo will be desperate to keep New England from capturing the AFC East crown. The Patriots have had two weeks to plan for Allen, but, while New England is a good team, I'm still not entirely sold on them outside of Drake Maye's wizardry.
Since beating the Bills the first time around, the Patriots have won eight straight against opponents with a combined record of 28-76. Not exactly a murderer's row. The Bills have been vulnerable this year, especially when they turn the ball over, but I like Allen to take care of the ball and earn a gutsy road win.
Knox: Patriots (+1.5)
It's hard for me to wrap my brain around the idea that New England might sweep Buffalo this year. However, it's harder for me to believe this Bills defense corrals Drake Maye and the NFL's hottest team on the road.
The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win, and they've had two weeks to prepare a game plan for slowing Allen. New England will get its first sweep since 2019.
Predictions
Bills: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
Patriots: Davenport, Knox, Sobleski
New York Jets (3-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)
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Gagnon: Jets (+12.5)
I still don't trust the Jaguars, and this feels like a potential trap with a road trip to Denver and Indianapolis to follow. This is simply a lot of points for a team that has won back-to-back games handily and could be due to come back to earth against an opponent that has nothing to lose.
Sobleski: Jaguars (-12.5)
Maybe it's time to start believing in the Jaguars after claiming the top spot in the AFC South. Jacksonville is also amid a four-game winning streak, during which the team hasn't scored fewer than 25 points. Conversely, the Jets lost three of their last four by an average of 16.7 points per game.
Considering the state of New York's quarterback setup, the spread isn't too much to push someone off the Jaguars.
Predictions
Jets: Gagnon
Jaguars: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
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Cleveland Browns (3-10) at Chicago Bears (9-4)
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Gagnon: Browns (+7.5)
Before seeing this spread, I actually penciled this in at 7.5 points. I'll just take the hook and a potential backdoor cover with a Cleveland team that seems to have plenty of fight in it while quarterbacked by Shedeur Sanders.
The Bears have merely survived in their last two home games against the Giants and Steelers, so I'm not convinced they'll pull away here.
Sobleski: Bears (-7.5)
Chicago should get back to basics and do what propelled it to a five-game win streak before Sunday's loss to the Green Bay Packers, i.e. just run the ball.
The matchup against Cleveland is the perfect time to ground out a victory after the Browns surrendered 184 rushing yards against the previous one-win Tennessee Titans.
The Bears are far better at the line of scrimmage, with two backs capable of going for over 100. Thus, Chicago will control the game.
Predictions
Browns: Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell
Bears: Davenport, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Baltimore Ravens (6-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)
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Hanford: Ravens (-2.5)
We're one questionable Isaiah Likely TD reversal away from the Ravens winning last week and feeling differently than they do at the moment.
The Bengals have been more exciting with Joe Burrow back in the fold, but this is a game the Ravens cannot afford to lose if they want to keep their playoff dreams alive.
I'm sure Cincinnati would love to play spoiler to those hopes, but Lamar Jackson's desperation is just enough to earn a win on the road and keep Baltimore's season alive.
O'Donnell: Bengals (+2.5)
I keep waiting for the teams that should be good to play good, and it just ain't happening. Like we're seeing with the Chiefs, the tide seems to officially be turning—at least for this season.
Bengals play spoiler and sweep the Ravens for the first time since 2021. And even if they don't, this 2.5 is good enough insurance in a divisional home game.
Predictions
Ravens: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton
Bengals: Davenport, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Washington Commanders (3-10) at New York Giants (2-11)
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Davenport: Commanders (+2.5)
I'd love to say there's some scientific reason for taking the Commanders in this one, but in this battle of struggling NFC East teams, science goes out the window.
However, we have seen the Commanders play teams such as Denver close with Marcus Mariota under center, and this is less about faith in Washington than lack of it in New York. Jaxson Dart may be fun to watch, but the Giants are still a two-win team.
The Commanders keep this one close, even if they don't win outright, and the team that "wins" this game winds up worse off than the loser, given the implications for the 2026 draft.
O'Donnell: Giants (-2.5)
This is the first time in the 2025 season that the New York Giants are favorites. In a battle of lost seasons, Big Blue has more to play for right now and is coming off a much-needed bye week.
I'll buy into Dart's team building a little momentum to close out the year.
Predictions
Commanders: Davenport
Giants: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Los Angeles Chargers (9-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)
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Gagnon: Chiefs (-4.5)
I would be shocked if the Chiefs don't have one more haymaker in them, and I wonder how much that Monday night overtime thriller took out of a Chargers team that is already pretty banged up.
At Arrowhead against a desperate and experienced Kansas City team is not a great recipe for a Bolts squad that was hammered in its last road game in Jacksonville.
O'Donnell: Chargers (+4.5)
I said it last week, got burned, and now it's time to pack up my belongings and find shelter. The Chiefs are not magically going to morph into legitimate contenders—they have too many issues this season.
Even if they pull off a victory this week against a banged-up Chargers team, 4.5 is too many points to feel comfortable with right now. If Mahomes has the ball last, it's likely for a late field goal, meaning L.A. still covers.
Predictions
Chargers: Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Chiefs: Gagnon, Knox, Moton
Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)
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Davenport: Raiders (+11.5)
If Geno Smith starts this game, you'll hear the outcry all the way down the Strip, because right now, Kenny Pickett equals hope. That's the Raiders' season in a nutshell.
This is more about the Eagles, though. They are 2-3 over their last five games and haven't covered a spread this big since their bye.
Jalen Hurts looks awful right now. The heavy workload appears to have caught up with Saquon Barkley, echoing the "Curse of 370" concerns. And Philly's defense had 24 sacks for the season before last week's outburst in Los Angeles.
The Eagles will win, but they don't deserve a spread this big—even against the league's worst team.
Moton: Eagles (-11.5)
On the Monday Night Football stage, the Eagles offense sputtered, turning the ball over five times in an overtime loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Back in Philadelphia for an early kickoff, the reigning champions will snap a three-game skid.
The Eagles will face an opponent with a record below .500 for the first time since they beat the New York Giants 38-20 at home in Week 8.
In their last two games, the Raiders allowed over 151 rushing yards. Also, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson targeted the upcoming matchup for his return from a Lisfranc injury.
Philadelphia records a two-touchdown victory over a Raiders squad that has been outscored 71-6 in its last two 1 p.m. ET kickoff games.
Predictions
Raiders: Davenport
Eagles: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Arizona Cardinals (3-10) at Houston Texans (8-5)
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O'Donnell: Cardinals (+9.5)
Having to win by 10 is a tough sell for a Texans team with an average margin of victory at 6.5 over its last six wins. Granted, many of the wins were against much better teams than the Cardinals, but it's hard to sustain that level of success, and Houston aims for its sixth win in a row.
I'll hope for the backdoor cover here in a potential letdown game (of sorts) from the heavily-favored Texans.
Sobleski: Texans (-9.5)
A backdoor cover is the main concern with the Cardinals as they're currently constructed with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Arizona is not playing well. Brissett has put up a lot of passing yards while trailing in recent weeks. But this Texans defense is special.
Houston will get after Brissett, make his life miserable, and shut down any late-game surge during garbage time.
Predictions
Cardinals: Davenport, Moton, O'Donnell
Texans: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Sobleski
Tennessee Titans (2-11) at San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
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Hanford: Titans (+12.5)
The 49ers will win this game at home to earn their fourth straight victory, but I like the Titans to muster enough for a backdoor cover.
Tennessee's biggest issue, offensively, this season has been keeping Cam Ward standing, and it only allowed one sack last week against Myles Garrett and the Browns' pass rush.
So we'll call that progress and something to build on as the Titans look to keep the rookie on his feet again this time around.
The 49ers come out sleepy off the bye, expecting an easy win against a team contending for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft, and win by fewer than 10.
Moton: 49ers (-12.5)
From a betting perspective, the Titans have fared well against the spread over the past month. They've covered in four of their last five contests. Though it's worth noting Tennessee played four of those outings at home, covering in three.
The Titans will go on the road to face a playoff-caliber club coming off its bye week.
With extra time to prepare and recover from nagging injuries, San Francisco will put together a dominant showing at home. The 49ers have won three consecutive games by at least 11 points and covered this spread in two of those outings.
They will continue to roll against one of the league's worst teams.
Predictions
Titans: Hanford
49ers: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) at Denver Broncos (11-2)
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Davenport: Packers (-2.5)
Sure, let's lay points on the road against the AFC's No. 1 seed. How could that possibly go wrong?
There's a reason this number is the number—and it's certainly not charity. The Broncos are last year's Chiefs, winning tight game after tight game.
However, the Packers are a Super Bowl contender in their own right with a better (or at least more consistent) offense and a defense that isn't that far behind Denver's. Under a field goal is essentially a "pick 'em" situation, and Green Bay is going to win this game.
Knox: Broncos (+2.5)
This was a tough call, mostly due to the inconsistent play we've seen from Denver's offense this season. The Broncos have a Super Bowl-caliber defense, and we may see some fatigue from a Packers team that just notched hard-fought divisional wins in back-to-back weeks.
Predictions
Packers: Davenport
Broncos: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Indianapolis Colts (8-5) at Seattle Seahawks (10-3)
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Moton: Seahawks (-13.5)
Less than a week after his 44th birthday and more than four years removed from his last NFL appearance, Philip Rivers may be the best quarterback option for the floundering Indianapolis Colts, which tells us this team is in dire straits on a three-game losing streak.
Along with Rivers on the practice squad, Brett Rypien is the only other healthy QB on the Colts roster. Rookie sixth-rounder Riley Leonard is practicing with limitations because of a knee injury.
Rivers' return to action is a feel-good story for every young grandpa out there, but it's unrealistic to believe he comes back after four years away from the game to move the ball against the league's No. 2 scoring defense.
Over the last two weeks, Seattle has outscored opponents 63-9. Whether it's Rivers, Rypien or Leonard under center, the Colts struggle mightily in this contest, falling behind and losing by multiple scores.
Sobleski: Colts (+13.5)
Almost everyone has written off the Colts after Daniel Jones' unfortunate season-ending injury. The Rivers experiment could easily turn into a calamity, but Indianapolis was competitive the last two seasons without quality quarterback play because of a talented roster.
The Colts may not win another game, but Jonathan Taylor and Co. have a chance to keep this game under a two-touchdown spread.
Predictions
Colts: Gagnon, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Seahawks: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton
Carolina Panthers (7-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-10)
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Hanford: Saints (+2.5)
The Saints are feeling really good after earning their biggest win of the season against Tampa last week, and Tyler Shough is showing flashes of promise every game.
The Panthers sit at the top of the NFC South, but after this game, they still have to face the Buccaneers twice, with the Seattle Seahawks sandwiched in at Week 17.
This feels like a bit of a trap game. The Panthers may eke this one out, but it's by less than a field goal.
Moton: Panthers (-2.5)
Like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday, Carolina will play with an extra pep in its step while in competition with the reigning NFC South champions for the division title.
On the road in Week 10, the Saints beat the Panthers 17-7. Carolina returns the favor with a renewed focus coming off a bye week. In its last two games, New Orleans allowed more than 163 rushing yards.
This is a good spot for Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard to rack up nearly 200 combined yards on the ground in a decisive victory.
Predictions
Panthers: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Saints: Hanford, Sobleski
Detroit Lions (8-5) at Los Angeles Rams (10-3)
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Davenport: Rams (-6)
Giving a touchdown (sans extra point) to a Lions team that won 15 games last year is, er...yeah. But these aren't the same Lions. As it turns out, Ben Johnson mattered, and Dan Campbell's decision to take over play-calling on offense was the worst he's made as head coach in Detroit.
Matthew Stafford throwing to Davante Adams and Puka Nacua in a Sean McVay offense is terrifying. The Rams also have two solid running backs and the league's No. 3 scoring defense. The Lions try to win shootouts, but the Rams make them one-sided—especially at home.
Gagnon: Lions (+6)
What are we doing here? The Lions are far too talented to be giving up six points in L.A., especially with extra time to prepare for a desperate situation. Despite their struggles this season, this remains the league's highest-scoring team.
Detroit beat the Rams twice in the calendar year 2024 and should at least keep this close if not pull off the upset on Sunday.
Predictions
Lions: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Rams: Davenport
Minnesota Vikings (5-8) at Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
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Davenport: Vikings (+6)
Dak Prescott's MVP-caliber season is being wasted on a team that sits dead-last in the NFC in scoring defense.
The Cowboys are a much tougher out at home, but even with J.J. McCarthy's inconsistency this year, if he gets a clean pocket, Minnesota's offense should be able to move the ball enough to keep this one close.
Knox: Cowboys (-6)
CeeDee Lamb's status looms large here, as it feels like we'd see a lower line if he was definitely unavailable.
It's still a larger line than I'd like because I don't trust Dallas' secondary against one of the league's better receiving corps.
One thing I trust less, though, is the prospect of McCarthy playing two clean games in a row. I expect a close one with a Vikings turnover leading to a touchdown difference.
Predictions
Vikings: Davenport
Cowboys: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Miami Dolphins (6-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
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Hanford: Steelers (-3)
The Dolphins are playing good, physical football right now and will be dangerous against a Steelers defense that can be pushed around at the point of attack.
However, Pittsburgh's track record on Monday Night Football is very strong.
Tua Tagovailoa and Miami won't enjoy playing in the cold Pittsburgh weather, and De'Von Achane doesn't seem to be fully healthy. The Steelers, just like every year, are an ugly watch.
Aaron Rodgers builds off his Week 14 success, though, and makes just enough plays to keep them atop the AFC North for another week at least.
Knox: Dolphins (+3)
Pittsburgh got back in the win column last week, but it felt like sloppy play by Baltimore and some questionable calls gifted the Steelers that win.
I really like what I've seen from Miami's defense over the last month, and I don't trust what I saw from the Steelers offense last week.
I'd feel better about backing Miami here if Achane was at 100 percent, but I can see the Dolphins keeping their hot streak going and winning this one outright.
Predictions
Dolphins: Knox, Sobleski
Steelers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
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