Bold Predictions for the AFC East in 2015
The AFC East created a lot of headlines during the offseason.
Unless you haven't turned on the TV or checked Twitter since the Super Bowl, you probably know by now that the New England Patriots might be without Tom Brady for four games following his suspension for his involvement in Deflategate, the Miami Dolphins made Ndamukong Suh the highest-paid defensive player in the league and the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills both brought in new head coaches.
With training camp set to begin next week, let's have some fun by making bold predictions about the division going into the 2015 season.
Tom Brady’s Suspension Will Have Little Impact
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This one may not be that bold, but let's get it out of the way early.
When we look back at it a year from now, we’ll barely remember Brady was suspended for four games, assuming it’s not reduced.
Of course, not having Brady for the first quarter of the season will hurt the Patriots, considering they have tough games against the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys during that stretch.
However, the Patriots have a tendency to struggle early in the season anyway, and they’ll probably still find a way to go at least 2-2 without their franchise quarterback. They’ll win at least one of those three games, and the other is against the Jacksonville Jaguars, whom they won’t lose to.
Including Brady’s big return—a Week 6 prime-time matchup against the Indianapolis Colts—the Patriots only play two 2014 playoff teams the rest of the way. In Week 12 they take on Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
You can’t always go by strength of schedule based on the results of the previous season, but the Patriots will be back in the postseason. Once the playoffs start, they’re always dangerous.
The cornerback situation will be an issue throughout the season, but this offense will single-handedly win a lot of games. Brady simply has too many weapons to work with.
The AFC East goes through New England until proved otherwise.
Joe Philbin Will Get Fired at the End of the Season
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Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin didn’t get the pink slip after his third straight playoff-less season to start his tenure, but he won’t keep his job if the Dolphins don’t qualify in 2015.
Miami entered the month of December with a chance at a wild-card berth each of the last two seasons.
In 2013, the Dolphins were 8-6 before losing to the Bills and Jets to blow their chances at the playoffs. Last year, they lost three of their last four games to fall short again.
Philbin gets a pass for 2013 just for getting that team to .500 amid the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin saga, but last year’s collapse was an embarrassment that culminated with a loss to the lowly Jets in the season finale for the second straight year.
It was a busy offseason in Miami, highlighted by the signing of Suh.
In his third season, Ryan Tannehill threw for more than 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns and completed 66.4 percent of his passes, convincing Dolphins brass he’s the franchise quarterback and earning an extension.
There’s too much talent on this roster for anything short of the playoffs to be acceptable.
Dolphins beat writer James Walker of ESPN.com addressed the importance of the 2015 season for Philbin:
"He is 23-25 in three years and hasn’t posted a winning season. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross has been patient with Philbin by giving him a fourth season. Ross even gave Philbin a one-year extension this offseason to avoid lame-duck status in 2015. But I doubt Philbin sees a fifth season unless the Dolphins make the playoffs.
"
The guess here is that Philbin gets the Dolphins to eight or nine wins, which won’t be good enough to make the playoffs in the AFC this year.
It sounds almost unfair to get rid of a guy after a respectable season like that, but coaches who go four straight seasons without making the playoffs don’t get the benefit of the doubt.
Darrelle Revis Will Receive the Loudest Ovation in Week 1 Player Introductions
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The Jets and Darrelle Revis split up on bad terms in 2013, as the Jets traded the face of the franchise to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a few draft picks—one of which turned into stud defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson—following his ACL tear.
When the Bucs cut the star cornerback after one season, the Jets had a chance to bring Revis back to New York.
According to Gary Myers of the New York Daily News, Revis’ agent reached out to then-general manager John Idzik to let him know that his client was interested in a reunion with the team that traded up to draft him with the 14th pick in 2007.
But the stubborn Idzik wasn’t interested in meeting Revis’ contract demands, so naturally, the former Pittsburgh Panther bolted to the Pats and won a Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, the Jets were stuck with fringe NFL players at cornerback throughout the 2014 season.
Free-agent pickup Dimitri Patterson was cut before playing a single snap after he skipped a preseason game, Dexter McDougle tore his ACL in camp, and Dee Milliner tore his Achilles in Week 6.
This forced the Jets to start various combinations of Darrin Walls, Phillip Adams, Marcus Williams and fan favorite—I know, Jets fans—Kyle Wilson. Due to Idzik’s failure to address a glaring area of need, that group was asked to do more than it was capable of.
So new general manager Mike Maccagnan came to the rescue and made sure not to leave his defensive-minded head coach, Todd Bowles, without corners. He proceeded to reunite Revis and Antonio Cromartie while also signing Buster Skrine to completely revamp the secondary.
Everyone is happy now. Jets fans forgive Revis for ever putting on a Patriots uniform, and Revis is where he wants to be, according to Darryl Slater of NJ.com.
“This is where my heart is,” Revis said, per Slater. “When I got drafted in 2007 [by the Jets], I told [then-general manager Mike Tannenbaum] I would do everything in my power to try to bring a championship to this organization.”
Revis’ second tenure in green and white begins on Sept. 13 against the Cleveland Browns.
If you can remember the 2010 season opener against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football, Revis was the last player to come out of the tunnel following his acrimonious holdout and MetLife Stadium exploded.
It will be even louder this time around.
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LeSean McCoy WIll Eclipse 2,000 Yards from Scrimmage
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During his tenure as Jets head coach, Rex Ryan’s game plan was simple—run the football and play good defense.
That approach was pretty successful, as the Jets finished first and fourth in the league in rushing in 2009 and 2010, respectively, en route to back-to-back AFC Championship Game appearances.
In 2009, the consistently reliable Thomas Jones was the No. 1 running back for the Jets before rookie Shonn Greene played a bigger role toward the end. In 2010, it was Greene and an older version of LaDainian Tomlinson who led the rushing attack.
Entering his first season as head coach in Buffalo, Ryan has probably the most complete running back he’s coached to date in LeSean McCoy.
Over his six-year NFL career, McCoy has failed to rush for 1,000 yards just twice—his rookie season when he was limited to 155 carries and 2012 when he missed four games. In both cases, he rushed for more than four yards per carry.
Considering the uncertainty at the quarterback position in Buffalo, McCoy will get plenty of touches out of the backfield, which, when combined with what he’s capable of as a receiver, should allow him to total 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
It won’t be the first time McCoy has done it. In 2013 he amassed 2,146 yards from scrimmage for the Philadelphia Eagles.
The quarterback—whoever that may be—will naturally turn to McCoy as a checkdown option on passing plays to avoid big mistakes, and McCoy has proved how dangerous he is with the ball in his hands in open space.
Vic Carucci of BuffaloNews.com noted that Ryan thinks he has a solid offensive line in place, which will only help McCoy’s quest for 2,000 yards.
In his opening press conference, Ryan talked about the significance of running the running game, according to BuffaloBills.com.
“I think running the football is important to us,” Ryan said, “especially when you come down to playing games in December and January, especially in the conditions that we’ll play in.”
Given the predicament at quarterback, ground-and-pound will start way before December in Buffalo.
Jarvis Landry Will Catch 100 Passes
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With so many rookie wide receivers enjoying success in 2014, it seemed as though Jarvis Landry got lost in the mix. Landry’s former LSU teammate, Odell Beckham Jr., deserves some of the blame for that.
Whether people took notice or not, the 2014 second-round pick put together a productive rookie campaign, racking up 758 yards and five touchdowns on 84 catches.
That’s 11 more catches than Kelvin Benjamin, 16 more than Mike Evans and 19 more than Sammy Watkins. All three receivers were selected before Landry in the 2014 NFL draft and garnered more attention during the season.
The only rookie wideout to catch more passes than Landry was his good friend, Beckham Jr.
“It was always a friendly competition to try and one-up each other in a way,” Beckham Jr. told the Miami Dolphins FAN Channel. “Honestly I have so much respect for him and I think it’s because I see so many qualities of myself that are in him. He is going to be one of the best receivers to ever come through that program.”
That’s high praise from a guy who made the cover of Madden coming off his rookie season.
Now that he’s had a year to acclimate himself to the NFL level and has a better understanding of the Dolphins offense, Landry will burst onto the scene in 2015.
Tannehill has rookie DeVante Parker, veteran Kenny Stills and tight end Jordan Cameron to spread the ball to this year, but he doesn’t need to worry about pleasing the mercurial Mike Wallace anymore.
While Tannehill and Landry are already familiar with each other, it’s going to take time for the signal-caller to develop a connection with those new targets.
Landry has earned his quarterback’s trust with his play as a rookie and will get plenty of balls thrown his way in his sophomore season.
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker Will Each Go for 1,000 Yards Receiving
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In this passing era, it seems surreal that the Jets have gone seven seasons without a 1,000-yard receiver, but that is in fact the case.
Jerricho Cotchery in 2007—with Kellen Clemens getting most of the playing time at quarterback, no less—was the last Jets receiver to accomplish the feat.
This season, the New York will finally put a 21st century offense on the field, and not one but two of the receivers will eclipse that mark.
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give Geno Smith two big targets on the outside who can contribute between the 20s and in the red zone alike, using their huge frames and route-running prowess to haul in passes.
Marshall’s streak of 1,000-yard seasons ended at seven, as he totaled just 721 yards in 13 games last year, but the rib and lung issues that kept him out of games for the Chicago Bears last year are behind him. Plus, he’s spent the last few months building a rapport with his young quarterback.
According to Judy Battista of NFL.com, Marshall and Smith spent time living together during the offseason. The quarterback-wide receiver tandem, along with some teammates, also hosted workouts in Chicago on their own time, per ESPN.com.
That chemistry and work ethic will show up on Sundays this season.
Decker, meanwhile, almost got to the 1,000-yard mark last year, when Smith was awful. He was also far and away New York’s biggest receiving threat; defenses could put an extra defensive back on him with little risk involved.
This year, there are more threats on offense to command the attention of the secondary, and Decker will get to line up against the No. 2 cornerback while Marshall gets the top guy, making it easier for Decker to get open in his second season with the Jets.
Decker and Marshall form one of the best receiving duos in football, and they’ll have the numbers to back that up at the end of the season.
Jamie Collins Will Become a Household Name
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During last year’s Super Bowl run, Jamie Collins started to get some much-deserved credit for the distinct role he plays on the Patriots defense.
That said, there are still fans of the game who aren’t aware of just how good the third-year linebacker really is.
He showed glimpses of what he can do in limited playing time as a rookie, but he was vital to New England’s success in 2014, totaling 116 tackles, four sacks, two interceptions and four forced fumbles.
Those numbers don’t do the linebacker justice, however, because they can’t measure his versatility.
Not only can he apply pressure on the quarterback—he finished with 26 total pressures in 2014, according to Oliver Thomas of 247Sports—but Collins is prolific in coverage to boot.
He routinely locks up tight ends and even follows receivers at times. Judging by New England’s current cornerback situation, he might be doing more of that this season.
Moreover, the former Southern Mississippi product is flexible enough to play both the "Sam" and middle linebacker positions effectively.
His supernatural athleticism is awe-inducing. Teammate Julian Edelman spoke to Doug Kyed of NESN.com about Collins’ jaw-dropping measurables.
“He can touch the ceiling not warmed up,” Edelman said, per Kyed. “He runs like a 4.5 (second 40-yard dash) and he’s 260 pounds—and he’s great in space. I just think he’s very athletic.”
Collins is invaluable to New England's defense, and with Revis back in New York, the linebacker is undoubtedly the best player on that unit.
Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon Will Combine for 24-Plus Sacks
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Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon will be the biggest beneficiaries of the addition of Suh to Miami’s defensive line.
Suh signed a massive contract with the Dolphins, and now he brings his massive presence to South Beach. The All-Pro tackle will take on multiple blockers, freeing things up for Wake and Vernon off the edges.
Fresh off an 11.5-sack breakout 2013 season, Vernon’s sack total fell to 6.5 last year. Wake, on the other hand, got to the quarterback 11.5 times in 2014.
With Suh demanding so much of the opposing offensive line’s attention, Vernon and Wake should both compile double-digit sacks.
Though he expects Suh to help his productivity, Wake isn’t ready to make any proclamations just yet, according to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald.
"He's going to help us, no doubt about that,” Wake said, per Salguero. “But I don't count my chickens. Words don't mean anything. Big contracts don't mean anything. It's all about chemistry and trust and confidence we have in one another and the results we get on the field.
He’s just being modest.
Suh will be his usual dominant self, while Wake and Vernon wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks.
Geno Smith Will Mature into a Solid Starting QB
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After two poor seasons under center, Smith is getting one last chance to prove he’s a capable starting quarterback in the NFL.
He’ll be on a short leash, though, as the Jets have brought in veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick to push him. But there’s reason to believe Smith can succeed in 2015.
Over the last few years, there have been times he’s had to force the ball to the likes of David Nelson, Greg Salas and Walt Powell. This year, he has a plethora of weapons on his side.
During the offseason, the Jets traded for Marshall, who immediately steps in as the No. 1 receiver, and drafted Devin Smith out of Ohio State. In Smith, the Jets have someone who can stretch the field and take the top off a defense.
Those two guys join a receiving corps that already includes Decker—who caught 74 passes for 962 yards last year despite terrible quarterback play—and Jeremy Kerley, a third-down machine for the Jets over the last few years.
This supporting cast will immediately help Smith raise his productivity, something he started to do over the last quarter of the 2014 season.
In the final four games of last year, he completed 65.6 percent of his passes, including the season finale against Miami in which he posted a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
During that stretch, Smith displayed better decision-making—throwing six touchdowns against two interceptions—and poise in the pocket. He also played well down the stretch in his rookie season, so you don’t want to overanalyze a handful of games, but he really did look like a different quarterback last December.
You also have to factor in the potential impact that new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey may have on Smith’s development. Gailey has had varying levels of success in his career with everyone from Kordell Stewart to Troy Aikman. Even Fitzpatrick fared well under Gailey in Buffalo.
As Rich Cimini of ESPN.com notes, Gailey’s offensive scheme is similar to what Smith ran at West Virginia, which should benefit the third-year quarterback.
It may be hard to for a lot of people to believe, but Smith could be pretty good this upcoming season.
The Bills WIll Make the Playoffs
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Fifteen seasons have passed since the Bills last made the playoffs, and everyone knows how that game finished.
The drought ends in 2015.
Their elite defense will be dominant enough to overcome any shortcomings on the other side of the ball.
Buffalo finished fourth in total defense last year, and now it brings in Ryan, who knows a thing or two about stopping opposing offenses.
Led by first-team All-Pro defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, Buffalo’s defense is loaded with talent.
Fellow defensive linemen Mario Williams and Kyle Williams went to the Pro Bowl last year along with Dareus, while the other starter up front, Jerry Hughes, has a combined 19.5 sacks over the past two seasons.
Linebackers Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham were both outstanding last year, and Ryan will surely maximize their talents in his system.
As for the secondary, compared to the cornerbacks Ryan was working with in New York last year, Leodis McKelvin and Stephon Gilmore look like Mike Haynes and Lester Hayes.
These guys are talented and know it. What else would you expect from a Ryan-coached defense?
Here’s what Dareus said about what their goal is as a unit, according to the Toronto Sun: "Best ever. It’s so obtainable. All we have to do is continue to do what we want, and not what we can. If we do what we want, why can’t we? Why can’t we?"
The Bills won’t have the best defense ever, but they are good enough to make the playoffs despite a messy quarterback situation.
Ryan has gotten to the playoffs with bad quarterback play and a great defense before. He’ll do it again in his first season in Buffalo.
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