Fantasy Football Risks & Busts You Need to Avoid in Your Draft

How do you avoid land mines in fantasy football? Simple. Read this.

No player comes without risk. It's a matter of assessing value and potential reward—some risks are worth taking while others are unnecessary and even foolish. 

It's possible some of the guys on this list will buck the risk and become great fantasy assets in 2015. Their situation or recent history say otherwise, however—it's hard to score fantasy points when you're on the bench, right?

Let's take a look at some of the biggest risks or outright busts in the fantasy football realm heading into 2015.

Risk: Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

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It's not a great sign to see your No. 1 fantasy pick still say his knee isn't quite 100 percent eight months after a sprain.

That's precisely what Le'Veon Bell recently told reporters, per Steelers beat writer Jacob Klinger. Considering he showed off some of his dunking skills recently, that knee is probably close. But that was quite the lengthy recovery.

The knee isn't really the reason to avoid Bell, however—it's the suspension. Pittsburgh's lead back was banned three games for his arrest for possession of marijuana last summer, and he is still awaiting appeal, per NFL.com's Dan Hanzus.

It's possible his sentence will be reduced, but even missing two games to start the season makes Bell a huge risk to take at the top of your fantasy draft. He is still going first-overall on average despite the suspension, and he will be putting up exactly zero points for his fantasy owners in the first three weeks if it holds up.

Bust: Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams

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Why on earth is anyone taking a rookie running back coming off a torn ACL who hasn't been cleared for contact in the fourth round of a fantasy draft? 

That's the case with Todd Gurley, whose top-10 NFL draft status has fantasy owners going a bit nuts. 

Gurley could be cleared soon—he meets with Dr. James Andrews any day now, per Fox Sports' Alex Marvez, which means he could be fine to jump into training camp—but it's just as likely he will be treated with kid gloves early on. After all, why would the St. Louis Rams push things with their investment?

For now, he will be placed on the non-football injury list, as tweeted NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Worse for fantasy owners is the fact Tre Mason is around to vie for playing time. Mason had his moments as a rookie last season, and his presence in the backfield will surely give St. Louis brass reason to bring Gurley along slowly.

Gurley may have been a top-10 pick, but he shouldn't be one of your starting running backs heading into the fantasy season.

Risk: Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks

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Let's cut to the chase.

The Seattle Seahawks threw the ball 454 times last season, the fewest in the league. The New Orleans Saints threw it 659 times, second-most in the league. 

Now, we could see a major increase in the Seattle passing game. But a run-oriented squad with a great defense does not make for a fantastic fantasy environment. Graham could well see a drop in targets on the order of 40 or 50—a huge number that could sink his fantasy value.

Joseph Juan has similar thoughts over at NumberFire.com:

"

It's likely that Graham's acquisition was more so a move to address their need for a playmaker in the red zone -- a deficit that likely cost the Seahawks a second-consecutive Super Bowl title -- than it was a sign that the Seahawks plan to overhaul their offensive game plan. Head coach Pete Carroll has always looked to fit players into his system, not vice-versa, as evidenced by his usage (or lack thereof) of wideout Percy Harvin.

All this taken together suggests that those thinking Graham will see the same workload and volume of targets in Seattle that he saw in New Orleans may need to temper their expectations.

"

Being told to temper expectations is a bitter pill to swallow if you've invested a third-round pick in a player.

Bust: Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears

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There is reason to be excited about Kevin White in Chicago after the Bears took him with the No. 7 overall pick in the NFL draft. Considering how good the rookie receiver class was last season, White must be a tantalizing option in fantasy drafts to boot.

Don't bite.

White is heading into a poisoned situation from a fantasy standpoint. For starters, he will be fourth in line—at best—for passing targets behind receiver Alshon Jeffery, tight end Martellus Bennett and running back Matt Forte, barring injuries. That's if White can win a starting job.

He'll have to fend off savvy veteran Eddie Royal and promising third-year man Marquess Wilson for starting honors, and he could wind up sharing playing time with both of those throughout the season regardless of the starting lineup.

White's a talented guy who will eventually be a huge part of the Bears offense. Just don't count on him to do it as a rookie.

Risk: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh

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Antonio Brown had a marvelous 2014 season for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He was unstoppable at times, helping quarterback Ben Roethlisberger reach new statistical heights and setting fantasy owners aloft all at once.

He also strapped a rocket to his fantasy stock, the top receiver taken in drafts on average. Why not? He will probably get a ton of targets in 2015 as the top receiving option in Pittsburgh, after all, and it's not as if he's lost a step this offseason.

The trouble with Brown is that men of his stature rarely reach rarified air in the fantasy realm. Brown officially scored the most fantasy points in NFL history among wideouts shorter than six-foot tall last season. Do you think he is going to repeat that?

He may well, but nobody who scored over 200 fantasy points in a season in that height range ever repeated the feat. Brown proved height wasn't an issue last season, but he severely overperformed in historical context.

Proceed with caution.

Bust: DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

How often do rushing champions change teams?

DeMarco Murray did just that, leaving the comfortable confines of the Dallas Cowboys offensive line for a more crowded space in Philadelphia. The offensive line is pretty good there, too, but Dallas has arguably the best one in the league.

Then there is the competition for touches, something Murray didn't have trouble with whatsoever last season. The Eagles sport an interesting triumvirate at running back, starting with Murray. Behind him are fellow newcomer Ryan Mathews and pass-catching savant Darren Sproles. 

While the Eagles certainly didn't pony up for Murray after ditching expensive LeSean McCoy without intending to use their new weapon, it's likely Philadelphia will try to keep him fresh after he saw 500 touches last season.

And that's the real rub—Murray's 2014 workload. Running backs with that kind of touch count tend to see a significant dropoff in production the following season. Are you ready to take on all this risk in the second round of your draft?

Risk: LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots

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How many times is Bill Belichick going to troll fantasy football owners before they stop drafting his running backs?

At least fantasy owners have sense enough to wait a bit before drafting LeGarrette Blount, the latest in a long line of running backs to take up residence on the Sirens' island. The big back is being taken in the sixth round on average as the 29th runner off the board.

That's not a terrible risk, but do you really trust that Blount will be the main man in New England all season long? The Patriots have had a top-20 fantasy back just twice in the past eight years, which is how long they've been without Corey Dillon. 

Blount will have a great game or two. But you won't know when that will happen, and he might have frustrated you into benching him for those big games. 

It's the Patriot Way.

Bust: Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

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Julius Thomas is a big, talented tight end. But he's no miracle worker.

Blake Bortles is no Peyton Manning, not even when the latter was young. He may well be a solid starter at the next level, but it'll take some time to get there if he ever does.

That may seem too simplistic, but it is a simple reality—Thomas' fantasy value takes a massive hit thanks to his free-agent defection. It's not just Bortles either—the entire Jacksonville offense pales in comparison to Denver's, both in quality and scale.

The Broncos ran 1,067 plays last season, seventh most in the league. The Jaguars were near the bottom of the list with 988 plays.

Of course, they brought Thomas in to improve the offense. But there is no way Thomas lives up to his billing as the sixth-best tight end in fantasy football. That's where he is being taken in drafts, anyway.

Average draft position courtesy of Footballguys.com.

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