Latest Bowl Projections, 2025 CFP Playoff Bracket Scenarios and Week 13 Predictions

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff picture saw some significant shakeups in Week 12. The biggest involved the Alabama Crimson Tide, who lost to Oklahoma 23-21 and fell all the way to No. 10 in the AP rankings.

Texas also dropped after a decisive 35-10 loss at the hands of Georgia, who moved into Alabama's former top-four spot. James Madison, meanwhile, entered the playoff picture as a Group-of-Five contender following South Florida's 41-38 loss to Navy.

While Texas A&M had an extremely close call, the Aggies, Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers all took care of business over the weekend to stay at the top of the playoff hunt.

What lies ahead for this year's playoff hopefuls? How might the CFP field shape up in the coming weeks? Let's take a look.

Current AP Top 25 Rankings

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Ohio State QB Julian Sayin

1. Ohio State

2. Indiana

3. Texas A&M

4. Georgia

5. Mississippi

6. Texas Tech

7. Oregon

8. Oklahoma

9. Notre Dame

10. Alabama

11. BYU

12. Vanderbilt

13. Utah

14. Miami

15. Georgia Tech

16. USC

17. Texas

18. Michigan

19. Virginia

20. Tennessee

21. James Madison

22. North Texas

23. Missouri

24. Tulane

25. Houston

Week 13 and 14 Scenarios

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Georgia RB Cash Jones

The Week 13 slate is short on marquee matchups, as several top teams have games that should result in easy wins. Ohio State, for example, will face a five-win Rutgers team. Texas A&M will face Samford.

Indiana and Mississippi are both off.

However, that doesn't mean fans can simply ignore the upcoming slate. Oklahoma will have to fend off a competitive Missouri squad that's sitting only a game behind the Sooners in the SEC standings. James Madison will battle Washington State in what is a must-win contest.

North Texas will battle Rice and is just one spot behind James Madison for the top Group-of-Five spot.

Saturday's showdown between Oregon and USC could alter the playoff bracket fairly significantly. So could the Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh matchup, though neither team would be in if the playoff started today.

There's a good chance, though, that fans see the most movement in Week 14.

Alabama could conceivably put itself back in the SEC title game picture with a win over Auburn in two weeks. Georgia could potentially cement its spot as a top-four team—or take a tumble in the rankings—through its matchup with Georgia Tech.

The Mississippi and Mississippi State matchup and the Texas and Texas A&M games could also be pivotal.

The next two weeks will determine the conference championship picture. Even if those title contests won't carry the weight they once did, they will further shape the playoff bracket.

Updated CFB Bowl Projections

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Indiana DL Hosea Wheeler

Round 1 (On Campus)

12. North Texas at 5. Texas Tech

11. Virginia at 6. Oregon

10. Alabama at 7. Mississippi

9. Oklahoma at 8. Notre Dame

Quarterfinals

Cotton Bowl

7. Mississippi vs. 2. Indiana

Orange Bowl

5. Texas Tech vs. 4. Texas A&M

Rose Bowl

8. Notre Dame vs. 1. Ohio State

Sugar Bowl

6. Oregon vs. 3. Georgia

Semifinals

Fiesta Bowl

4. Texas A&M vs. 1. Ohio State

Peach Bowl

3. Georgia vs. 2. Indiana

The CFP has introduced straight seeding this year, which means a top-ranked team like Ohio State or Indiana could lose its conference title game and still earn a first-round bye—assuming the loss isn't of the blowout variety.

This is because the top four seeds are no longer guaranteed to go to the four top-ranked conference champions. Those spots will be determined entirely by the CFP committee's discretion. If the committee decides that the top two teams in a given conference are also two of the top four teams in the country, they'll earn byes.

However, a team like Alabama may benefit from not reaching its conference title game. The Crimson Tide would have an at-large bid if the playoff began today. Alabama probably isn't getting in with a third loss, tough, even if it comes against Georgia or Texas A&M.

Mississippi, which owns a 10-1 record, is also in the SEC hunt but may hope to avoid the title game. If Ole Miss and Alabama were both to finish with two losses, it's not hard to imagine the CFP committee giving Alabama the nod.

The ACC champion and top-ranked G5 should claim the final two bracket spots. It'll be interesting to see if James Madison remains on top of the G5 race when the CFP committee releases its rankings on Tuesday.

South Florida had the edge in the CFP rankings last week, even though it owned one more loss than the Dukes.