CFP Playoff Bracket, Scenarios and Bowl Projections After 2025-26 Week 13 AP Rankings

The Alabama Crimson Tide's tumble down to No. 10 highlighted the Week 13 AP Top 25.

Alabama's loss to the Oklahoma Sooners took away the margin for error that the Crimson Tide had before Saturday when it comes to the College Football Playoff.

The Sooners moved up three spots to No. 8 after their win in Tuscaloosa that put them in much better shape to reach the 12-team field.

The other major development from Sunday's AP poll release was the James Madison Dukes' rise up to No. 21. They are the best Group of Five team by one spot, as the North Texas Mean Green entered the poll at No. 22.

Alabama Falls to No. 10

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Alabama's drop to No. 10 put it behind Oklahoma and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Alabama would still make the CFB Playoff field if it lands at No. 10 in Tuesday's rankings release.

However, the Crimson Tide would be the last at-large team into the field at No. 10 since the ACC champ and best Group of Five team are outside of the top 10.

Alabama needs to beat the Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl on November 29 to avoid a bad loss that would take it out of the playoff mix.

The Crimson Tide could get into the SEC Championship Game with a win over Auburn. They need to win the Iron Bowl and then have either the Texas A&M Aggies or Ole Miss Rebels lose, or to beat out the Georgia on strength of schedule tiebreaker, per ESPN's Cole Cubelic.

It might benefit Alabama to not qualify for the SEC title game because a 10-2 record gets it into the playoff field. Suffering a third loss in Atlanta might keep the Tide out of the field.

James Madison Leads Group of Five Race For Now

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James Madison is in the lead to land the Group of Five playoff berth for now.

The Dukes landed at No. 21 in the AP poll, one spot ahead of North Texas at No. 22. The Tulane Green Wave also entered the poll at No. 24.

JMU owns the clearest path to the CFB Playoff of the top G5 contenders because it has been far and away the best team in the Sun Belt.

There's more parity in the American Conference, as we saw again on Saturday, when the South Florida Bulls fell to the Navy Midshipmen.

Navy, Tulane, North Texas and the East Carolina Pirates all have one loss in conference play. None of those four teams play each other in the next two weeks. Navy owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over North Texas, while Tulane beat East Carolina earlier in the season.

JMU is the G5 front-runner based on the AP poll, but that could change on Tuesday since USF was ahead of JMU in last week's CFB Playoff rankings.