How Much Is T.Y. Hilton Worth to the Indianapolis Colts?

T.Y. Hilton is keeping an eye on Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas this season.

After the high-profile contract disputes between the latter two and their respective teams resulted in nearly identical five-year, $70 million contracts, Hilton tweeted out the following:

Hilton had been hoping for an extension from the Colts this offseason, but according to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star, that's probably not going to happen. So, it's no surprise that the fourth-year wide receiver is keeping an eye on the contract negotiations of other receivers around the league.

As of right now, Hilton isn't quite on Thomas or Bryant's level, and the Colts wouldn't pay him as much. But if he has as much or more production than the two in 2015, he'll probably be looking for money that swings closer to the elite side of the spectrum.

But just how valuable is Hilton to Indianapolis?

The Colts have expressed an interest in keeping Hilton around, especially owner Jim Irsay, but everybody has a limit.

With Anthony Castonzo, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Jerrell Freeman and a host of others set to hit free agency next offseason, and Andrew Luck's eventual extension looming, the Colts' limit may have even less wiggle room.

Let's start with Hilton, and what he means to Indianapolis.

While Hilton isn't quite at Thomas and Bryant's level, he has produced more than either did in their first three seasons in the league.

This is something that Hilton's agent will certainly bring to the negotiating table, and for good reason.

Yes, Andrew Luck's presence gives Hilton an advantage to just about every other player on this list, but Hilton has plenty of merits in his own right.

Hilton has been incredibly productive as a young player, and he has been irreplaceable in the Colts offense over the last two seasons.

When Reggie Wayne went down with a torn ACL in 2013, Hilton took the role of a No. 1 receiver and flourished, amassing 72 catches for 998 yards and five touchdowns over the next 11 games. In 2014, Hilton continued his run, finishing the year as one of the most productive receivers in the league.

All this was happening while Reggie Wayne's body betrayed him, Dwayne Allen's was only partially cooperative, the Darrius Heyward-Bey and Hakeem Nicks experiments didn't work out and the Colts running game was reliant on Trent Richardson.

Andrew Luck made, and makes, everything go for Indianapolis, but Hilton has been almost as valuable. Hilton has missed two games over the last three years. The Colts lost both by a combined score of 83-28.

Hilton began his career as a deep threat, but he has evolved into so much more than that for Indianapolis.

It starts with is route-running ability. Hilton has had one of the best receivers in recent memory to learn from in this regard: Reggie Wayne (who learned from Marvin Harrison, this generation's Michelangelo of route-running). His sharp route running is what has allowed him to take on a heavier volume over the last two seasons.

This is the difference between Hilton and somebody like, say, DeSean Jackson, who was recently ranked ahead of Hilton as the No. 1 deep threat in the league by Bucky Brooks of NFL.com. Jackson is a phenomenal receiver, but he's only caught more than 62 balls in a season once in his seven-year career.

Not only is Hilton a technically sound route-runner, but he has become very crafty in how he manipulates defenses.

Watch the route below as an example.

Player	Team	Drafted	Catches	Yards	TDs
A.J. Green	CIN	2011	260	3,833	29
T.Y. Hilton	IND	2012	214	3,289	19
Alshon Jeffery	CHI	2012	198	2,921	20
Dez Bryant	DAL	2010	200	2,871	27
Torrey Smith	BAL	2011	164	2,824	19
Julio Jones	ATL	2011	174	2,737	20
Victor Cruz	NYG	2010	168	2,628	19
Michael Floyd	ARZ	2012	157	2,444	13
Kendall Wright	TEN	2012	215	2,420	12
Demaryius Thomas	DEN	2010	148	2,268	16
Antonio Brown	PIT	2010	151	2,062	7

The key here is the defender's hips. Hilton does an excellent job of manipulating defenders into turning their hips, then makes his moves just at the right time in response to create huge areas of separation.

You can see a similar technique in his game-winning touchdown against Kansas City last January, this time waiting for the safety's hips to turn outside before breaking slightly inside.

Hilton's knowledge of how to use his speed and quickness to his advantage gives him a leg up on the defense at any time.

The other area where Hilton has shown surprisingly good skills is at the catch point. Yes, Hilton is only 5'9", and he will never be Dez Bryant or A.J. Green, but he's a tough, consistent player when the ball is within reach.

There are plenty of examples of this, so take your pick. There's jump-ball situations, like his circus catch over Brent Grimes or his ripping the ball away from Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

AJ Mast/Associated Press

He can pluck the ball away from his body and has fixed his drop issues from his rookie season, finishing in the top 20 in both 2013 and 2014 in Pro Football Focus' drop rate.

In short, no pun intended, he's one of the league's most well-rounded wide receivers, and he's worth big money. But that's just in general.

Can the Colts afford to pay him? That will be the question.

With Bryant and Thomas setting the bar at $14 million per year, the bar for top-end receivers is only going to get higher. Next year, with A.J. Green and Julio Jones hitting free agency, that bar could drastically change.

As of right now, Spotrac.com has the Colts with just over $25 million in cap space if the cap raises to $150 million.

If Hilton's production is on a similar level to Thomas, Bryant, Jones and Green in 2015, he and his agent could realistically push for $14 million or more per year. In that case, seeing Indianapolis meet his demands seems unlikely.

If he remains a notch below those elites, the contract could be more in the $11 or $12 million per year range, around what Mike Wallace got when he signed his five-year, $60 million contract in 2013. That seems a bit more likely for the Colts to match, but it also depends on how high the cap rises and if the Colts cut a few high-priced veterans.

"

Don't rush 3. Even if you have JJ Watt, don't rush 3. https://t.co/79pwnfyCjM

— Garrett Stallins (@smileymoth) July 20, 2015"

If the Colts signed Hilton to around $12 million per year, that would cut the available cap space for 2016 in half, and that's if Andrew Luck plays for the franchise tag level. That would leave enough room to maybe be able to pay Anthony Castonzo and Dwayne Allen new contracts, but little else, outside of some very creative structuring.

Cuts will be coming, but the extent is still an unknown, and 2015 will play a large part in that. The Colts have plenty of options to save money if older players break down, injured players don't recover well or just if play is poor.

With the Colts' depth at wide receiver, signing Hilton becomes less of a priority. Although the Colts may not have drafted Phillip Dorsett, a Hilton clone, in the first round specifically to avoid paying Hilton big money, it certainly doesn't hurt their position in negotiations. The Colts also have the option of re-signing Coby Fleener and Allen next offseason.

Even if Andre Johnson's body goes down the tube, Donte Moncrief and Dorsett are both high-ceiling, young wide receivers. Of course, this all would hinge on their development, but the Colts do have options beyond Hilton now, which was not the reality a year ago.

But even with depth behind him, Hilton is a rare breed, the kind of player you want to keep around. He's very good, getting better, has a great rapport with Andrew Luck and is popular among fans. Hilton has always done his job, coming to practices and buying in to the Colts' philosophies.

The Colts should, and do, want to keep him around.

But the question remains: How much will it take?