Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 16's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice

MLB's trade floodgates officially opened on Thursday, when Scott Kazmir and Aramis Ramirez each got dealt to contenders within their division. Fantasy baseball players can learn a valuable lesson from rivals working together to formulate beneficial transactions.

Rather than worrying about helping the Houston Astros, the Oakland Athletics saw a club with a fruitful farm system. As for the up-and-coming Astros, they're seizing a chance to matter now by landing Kazmir, even if it means sending their American League West opposition a pair of prospects.

Knowing they won't contend this summer, the Milwaukee Brewers kindly sent Ramirez back to the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving the 37-year-old third baseman the chance to finish his career where he started it. 

General managers of the real and pretend variety often hesitate to work with the enemy. Both are afraid of helping a competitor, even if it benefits them in the process. Fantasy gamers especially will struggle to succeed under such a mentality. You can't always rip the other party off, and constantly attempting to hoodwink other owners is a surefire way to get nothing accomplished.

So keep an open mind with most trade deadlines looming, even if it means negotiating with the second-place team while stuck in third. Depending on your squad's specific needs, target or market these highlighted players.

Buy Low: Matt Kemp, OF, San Diego Padres

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Around this time last year, drafters bemoaned their choice to gamble on Matt Kemp. Then the former fantasy star discovered the Fountain of Youth, batting .309/.365/.606 with 17 home runs after the All-Star break.

His second-half rebound enabled the Los Angeles Dodgers to unload him on the San Diego Padres. (Acquiring Yasmani Grandal and starting Joc Pederson certainly panned out.) Following another discouraging start, Kemp is again heating up, hitting .293 with four homers in July.

Over the past six years, he crushed over 20 homers in all but one season, during which he logged 73 games. Although Petco Park drained his power to one long ball through April and May, he has since belted nine. 

Health has proven Kemp's biggest enemy, but the 30-year-old is hitting .254/.301/.404 without any injury scares. Meanwhile, his 38.3 hard-hit percentage ranks second behind last year. Don't go expecting another groundbreaking conclusion that causes everyone to again overpay next year, but he has more power left in the tank.

Sell High: Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, Chicago Cubs

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Feeling left out during the cavalcade of strong debuts, Kyle Schwarber is hitting .409/.447/.705 with three home runs, 10 runs and 11 RBI through 13 magical games. The rookie catcher already has a higher WAR (0.7) than Jonathan Lucroy and Yan Gomes. 

He's a must-add if still available, but it's time to find a more competitive league if that's the case. Those who snatched up the Chicago Cubs catcher should now exploit the hype and test his trade value.

Bold prediction: He won't hit .409 all year. For starters, he's not Ted Williams. Then there's his unimpressive three walks and 14 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances. His .556 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) also represents the byproduct of a tiny sample size. 

If he stays behind the plate, Schwarber will one day become an elite fantasy choice. He's a borderline top-12 option right now, but see if another competitor already envisions a game-changing star.

Buy Low: Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

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Barring a torrential power outburst, Matt Holliday is going to finish with fewer than 20 homers for the first time since 2005. (He hit 19 in 125 games that season.) Not only did the 35-year-old outfielder miss a month with a quad injury, but he only offered four long balls through 238 plate appearances.

Diminished power aside, he's hitting .306/.424/.440 with a 143 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), exceeding his career 139 rate that takes into account his former Coors Field advantage. He has hit a dozen doubles and tallied a career-high 15.5 walk percentage.

The old man still knows what he's doing. 

His slugging percentage has dropped every season since 2010, and any speed vanished years ago. Yet last year's .272 batting average marked the only time he ever hit below .290. A healthy Holliday remains a valuable, underappreciated asset.

Sell High: Lance McCullers, SP, Houston Astros

Steven Senne/Associated Press

There's nothing less appealing to fantasy gamers than a 21-year-old pitcher sporting a 2.60 ERA, 2.86 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 9.48 strikeouts per nine innings. Wait...

So Lance McCullers has enjoyed a sensational debut after jumping straight from a brief Double-A stay. Including his six minor league appearances, he has racked up 116 strikeouts through 98.1 innings. As Larry David would say: pretty, pretty good.

It's also incredibly surprising for a prospect who registered a 5.47 ERA in Single-A last year. He arrived at Houston with a 3.79 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 4.5 walks per nine innings, but the rookie righty has tightened his walks per nine to 3.36 in 12 MLB starts.

His raw command is beginning to show. After allowing six walks through five starts, he has since coughed up 21 free passes through 38.1 frames. At the risk of sounding like a Skeptical Suzy, these struggles seem far more feasible than his early precision.

He has also never tossed more than 104.2 innings during a professional season. Even if Houston doesn't shut him down during a pennant chase, he'll have to deal with innings limits, a skipped start or two and erosion over an extended workload. 

Buy Low: Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Despite hitting .235/.307/.343 through 89 games last year, Gregory Polanco secured breakout plaudits due to his seven homers and 14 stolen bases. With a little more tuning at the plate, the Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder could blossom into a fantasy phenom.

Through 91 remarkably similar games, he's the same guy as a sophomore. Along with a .240/.315/.347 slash line, his .290 weighted on-base average (wOBA) is nearly identical to last year's .293 rate. Other than trading four homers for three steals, nothing has changed.

So why buy low? Stagnant maturation aside, he's still running. Only nine players have swiped more bags than his 17. Other than Ben Revere and the regressing Billy Burns, the others are all-around studs who won't come cheap. An owner affluent in steals will see little reason to keep Polanco around in redraft leagues.

Although his fly-ball percentage mirrors last year's mark, the 23-year-old hasn't gone deep since May 31. Given his solid power showing last year and throughout the minors, he should generate some more pop.

After an undisciplined April, he has struck out 47 times through 286 appearances (16.4 percent) while drawing 33 walks (11.5 percent). Both show improvement from a potential five-category contributor. 

Sell High: Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Milwaukee Brewers

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Francisco Rodriguez's redemption tour continues. After resurfacing in the ninth inning last year, the electric veteran has recorded a 1.32 ERA and 0.82 WHIP for the Milwaukee Brewers, converting all 21 of his save opportunities.

For the second straight year, K-Rod is benefiting from a suspiciously low .218 BABIP. This time, however, he holds a 22.5 hard-hit percentage instead of 2014's lofty 42.0 percent. Even when the ERA rises, he remains a viable fantasy closer who has fanned a batter per inning in each of his 13 career seasons.

There's no guarantee, however, of Rodriguez possessing a closer's gig on August 1. The 33-year-old All-Star may have pitched his way into a deadline deal from the 42-53 Brewers. Even someone nine saves away from passing Joe Nathan as MLB's active saves leader could get relocated to a setup role.

It'd certainly represent nothing new for Rodriguez, who experienced such a process in both 2011 and 2013. Loaded with younger, cheaper relievers (Will Harris, Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress), Milwaukee isn't damaging its future by shipping him off for a prospect. 

The Toronto Blue Jays could acquire him as a closer, but moving to an American League hitter's park still represents a downgrade. If nobody is paying up, managers comfortable in saves might even want to sell for 80-90 cents on the dollar as a precaution.

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.