2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
Some people will argue that updating projections for the men's NCAA tournament a mere week into the regular season is nothing short of lunacy.
Well, we would argue that those people don't know how to have fun.
Because, yes, that's all bracketology is for the first month or two of the regular season: fun. We won't have NET rankings for another few weeks, which means "Quads" isn't part of the discourse yet. Even when the initial NET ranking gets released somewhere around Dec. 1, no one actually expects it to resemble what will be the final product 100 or so days thereafter.
For the diehards, though, bracketology is all about the season-long journey; the constant twists and turns that eventually bring us to the final product. And that journey began eight days ago.
Let's not forget that results from the first half of November mean just as much to the selection committee as the results from the first half of March. In fact, one could easily argue these early results are even more important, because they establish the baseline for how teams will be judged later in the season.
So, let's have some fun while recapping the biggest developments of the first week back on the hardwood.
The Projected Bracket
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East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Greenville, SC
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Southern
No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 Mississippi State
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 13 Northern Iowa
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Liberty
Buffalo, NY
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Youngstown State
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 Memphis
Greenville, SC
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 East Tennessee State
No. 7 Creighton vs. No. 10 Missouri
Midwest Region (Chicago)
St. Louis, MO
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Navy/Eastern Kentucky
No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
Philadelphia, PA
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Troy
No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 12 Akron
Tampa, FL
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 UNC-Wilmington
No. 6 Indiana vs. No. 11 SMU/Utah State
Philadelphia, PA
No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 15. South Dakota State
No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 10 Cincinnati
South Region (Houston)
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Norfolk State/LIU
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Clemson
Portland, OR
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 McNeese
No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 12 Yale
Buffalo, NY
No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 14 Siena
No. 6 Baylor vs. No. 11 Texas/Saint Mary's
St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Little Rock
No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 10 Georgia
West Region (San Jose)
San Diego, CA
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Portland State
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Oregon
San Diego, CA
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 Hawaii
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 High Point
Portland, OR
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 Utah Valley
No. 6 UCLA vs. No. 11 Dayton
Tampa, FL
No. 2 Florida vs. No. 15 Vermont
No. 7 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Iowa
Three Disclaimers:
No. 1: Though I do my best to construct a legal bracket as far as regional balance of the top four seed lines and potential same-conference matchups are concerned, I won't start worrying about avoiding non-conference rematches in the first round until the first projection of January. Please excuse any of those that you may find.
No. 2: BYU's inability to play on Sundays for religious reasons leaves us with no choice but to break the rule about putting the first four teams from a conference into different regions when they rank among the top 16 overall seeds. The Cougars must be slotted into either the South or West region, where Big 12 brethren Houston and Arizona are presently the projected No. 1 seeds. BYU has always been an intriguing bracketology wrinkle, but it is a full-blown conundrum at the moment. We'll see if that remains the case all season.
No. 3: Yes, Houston is allowed to play in the Houston regional, which is being hosted by Rice University. For what it's worth, at least the Toyota Center is a few miles from Houston's main campus. Conversely, had there been a tournament in 2020, Gonzaga would have been a No. 1 seed and could have walked to its first two games in Spokane at a pod that was technically hosted by the University of Idaho.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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No sense in wasting too much breath on this section right now. There will be Kentucky-Louisville on Tuesday, Alabama-Purdue on Thursday, the Champions Classic (Duke-Kansas; Kentucky-Michigan State) next Tuesday, Arizona-Connecticut and Alabama-Illinois next Wednesday and plenty more to potentially shake things up before Feast Week even begins.
Still, we do want to point out that Duke (from No. 3 overall to No. 2 overall), Arizona (No. 7 to No. 4) and Alabama (No. 17 to No. 7) each moved up to some extent following quality wins.
If we want more teams playing marquee games within the first week of the regular season—which we most certainly do—we've got to reward the ones that do play and win those contests.
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Georgia Bulldogs—Unremarkable competition, but won first three games by 149 points.
Fourth-to-Last In: Saint Mary's Gaels—Scored dominant wins over respectable mid-majors St. Thomas and Chattanooga.
Third-to-Last In: Texas Longhorns—Lost to Duke, but kept it close for 30 minutes.
Second-to-Last In: SMU Mustangs—Tuning up for four straight away from home vs. SEC.
Last Team In: Utah State Aggies—Sneaks into the field after eking out win over VCU.
***Cut Line***
First Team Out: Nebraska Cornhuskers—Inaugural Crown champs own nation's longest winning streak (six games).
Second Team Out: Virginia Cavaliers—Two international freshmen make Wahoos an intriguing team to monitor.
Third Team Out: Oklahoma State Cowboys—Didn't expect much from OSU, but they destroyed Texas A&M.
Fourth and Fifth Teams Out (20 words): Syracuse Orange and Georgetown Hoyas—It's a shame they chose this year to eliminate the annual rivalry game. It could've actually mattered for a change.
ACC Summary
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6 Teams in the Projected Field: 2. Duke, 14. North Carolina, 17. Louisville, 30. NC State, 35. Clemson, 43. SMU
Also Considered: Virginia, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Miami, Virginia Tech
Biggest Development: ACC Back?
Over the past few years, the biggest early development for the ACC was embarrassing losses.
In the opening week of 2021-22, Virginia lost at home to Navy, Louisville lost at home to Furman, Pitt lost at home to The Citadel, and Georgia Tech lost at home to Miami-Ohio. Though Furman ended up being a top 75 team on KenPom, yikes.
The following year, Boston College lost to Maine, Syracuse lost to Colgate, Florida State lost to both Stetson and Troy and Louisville lost to the trifecta of Bellarmine, Wright State and Appalachian State, all at home, all within the first nine days.
Two seasons ago, Notre Dame lost to Western Carolina, Georgia Tech lost to UMass Lowell and Louisville got smoked at home by Chattanooga.
And while last year's only colossal embarrassment was Georgia Tech's home loss to North Florida, the league as a whole failed again and again in almost every Quad 1 opportunity in nonconference play en route to getting just four bids.
This year, the situation is different.
The ACC entered Monday at 35-1 overall, the lone loss not even a terrible one with Boston College falling at Florida Atlantic in overtime. And in the "key wins" department, North Carolina ran past Kansas, Duke cruised to a 15-point win over Texas, and Virginia Tech picked up a neutral-site overtime victory over Providence.
Collectively, the ACC's efficiency margin on KenPom has improved by 18.46 points since the preseason ratings. Meanwhile, the Big Ten is up 0.74 points, the SEC is down 0.88 points, the Big East is down 9.95 points and the Big 12 is down 10.43 points.
It's a fantastic start, but it's also just a start. Let's see how this once proud league builds on this to ensure at least six bids for what would be the first time since 2021.
Big 12 Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field: 1. Houston, 4. Arizona, 10. BYU, 15. Iowa State, 18. Texas Tech, 22. Baylor, 25. Kansas, 38. Cincinnati
Also Considered: Oklahoma State, Kansas State
Biggest Development: Arizona Stakes Claim to a No. 1 Seed; Kansas Definitively Does Not
Arizona was already a viable candidate for a No. 1 seed in our preseason bracketology, landing at No. 7 overall in advance of an opening night clash with what was our final No. 1 seed, Florida.
Koa Peat and Co. made the most of that major neutral site (Las Vegas) opportunity against the reigning national champions, rallying from a 12-point deficit midway through the first half for a scintillating 93-87 victory.
The freshman phenom went for 30 points, seven rebounds, five assists, three steals and a block in a debut for the ages. Senior lead guard Jaden Bradley was just as masterful with 27 points and several clutch plays down the stretch to seal it.
Arizona subsequently scored a convincing win over Utah Tech in which three Wildcats (including Peat) scored exactly 18 points while reserve big man Tobe Awaka went off for 18 rebounds.
Two more big tests coming soon for Arizona, facing UCLA in Inglewood this Friday before a colossal road game against Connecticut next Wednesday, the latter looking like an early "winner becomes/remains a projected No. 1 seed" showdown.
Speaking of early tests, though, Kansas failed one on Friday.
The Jayhawks jumped out to a 10-point lead late in the first half on the road against North Carolina, but the Tar Heels proceeded to score 46 points in the span of about 12 minutes while turning it into a laugher in the opposite direction.
Superstar freshmen Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson each led their teams in scoring, but Wilson's supporting cast was superior as North Carolina grabbed 12 more rebounds and made 12 more two-point buckets.
Lack of frontcourt depth behind Flory Bidunga was a big question mark for Kansas coming into the season and, if anything, it's only a bigger concern now.
Big East Summary
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3 Teams in the Projected Field: 5. Connecticut, 19. St. John's, 27. Creighton
Also Considered: Georgetown, Villanova
Biggest Development: Mostly Missed Opportunities
Heading into Creighton's big test at Gonzaga on Tuesday night, the Big East has collectively played just five games against teams ranked in the KenPom top 100.
It went 1-4 in those games.
Villanova's neutral-site loss to BYU was easily the least troubling of the bunch. The Wildcats even briefly led late in the second half but couldn't quite spoil AJ Dybantsa's collegiate debut. They showed some promise, though. Especially Bryce Lindsay, who scored 22 off the bench before starting the next game (vs. Queens) and putting up 25 more points.
Providence's neutral-site overtime loss to Virginia Tech could be the most painful in the long run, with both teams entering the year as fringe bubble candidates. The Friars just had no answer for VT's 6'9" freshman point-forward Neoklis Avdalas, which could be a problem that a lot of teams can't solve this season.
Marquette (our preseason No. 38 overall seed) got annihilated by Indiana (preseason No. 41 overall) on Sunday afternoon. While Shaka Smart all but refuses to utilize the transfer portal, Darian DeVries' roster was almost entirely built from it. Yet, the latter had the far more cohesive unit. We'll see if the Golden Eagles can bounce back or if this is just going to be a tough year for them.
The fourth loss was St. John's falling at home to Alabama in a sensational high-scoring affair. It felt like a statement win by the Crimson Tide more than a letdown loss for the Red Storm, and Alabama's next three games (vs. Purdue, Illinois in Chicago and Gonzaga in Las Vegas) will further paint that picture. But after going a perfect 21-0 at home last season (including Big East tournament), that was a tough start for the Johnnies.
The lone respectable victory by the Big East was Georgetown's 10-point road win over Maryland in a slog that "featured" 68 free-throw attempts. The Hoyas also had that exhibition win over Kentucky and just might be ready to amount to something in year No. 3 under Ed Cooley. We're not prepared to vault them into the field just yet, but that probably changes if they score a home win over Clemson on Saturday.
Big Ten Summary
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11 Teams in the Projected Field: 3. Purdue, 9. Illinois, 11. Michigan, 16. Michigan State, 20. Wisconsin, 21. Indiana, 23. UCLA, 29. Ohio State, 32. USC, 36. Oregon, 39. Iowa
Also Considered: Nebraska, Maryland, Northwestern
Biggest Development: Two Blue Bloods Heading in Opposite Directions
There are six-and-a-half generally accepted blue-blood programs in college basketball: Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and UCLA with "new blood" Connecticut as the half-member. And of that group, Indiana and UCLA both play in the Big Ten.
Heading into this season, the Bruins seemed a sure thing to be at least a Sweet 16-caliber team while the transfer-heavy Hoosiers were much more of a mystery down around the at-large cut line. At any rate, UCLA was rated 10th on KenPom and Indiana was 40th.
Already, though, the crimson blue blood has leapfrogged the former Pac-12 team, climbing roughly 20 spots on KenPom while UCLA has fallen 20.
To UCLA's credit, there haven't been any losses yet. However, it left a lot to be desired in the home wins over Eastern Washington and Pepperdine. The Bruins closed as a 29.5-point favorite in each of those contests, only to win the former by six and the latter by 11. And that's how you plummet in the ratings while winning.
Indiana, on the other hand, was a 30.5-point favorite in its opener against Alabama A&M, which it won by 47. The Hoosiers proceeded to eviscerate Marquette by 23 in what was supposed to be a coin flip-type of game.
You'd have no idea from watching Indiana that the five starters played for Davidson, Sam Houston State, Troy, DePaul and West Virginia last season, as they've racked up 50 assists and 24 made three-pointers in an offense that could be special.
We'll now have to hit the snooze button on evaluating the Hoosiers for a few weeks, though, as their only remaining November game against a KenPom top 200 foe comes at home against Kansas State on the 25th. But facing Louisville and Kentucky away from home on back-to-back Saturdays to open December promises to be an entertaining ride.
SEC Summary
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12 Teams in the Projected Field: 6. Kentucky, 7. Alabama, 8. Florida, 12. Tennessee, 24. Arkansas, 26. Auburn, 28. Vanderbilt, 33. Mississippi State, 34. Ole Miss, 37. Missouri, 40. Georgia, 42. Texas
Also Considered: Texas A&M, LSU, Oklahoma
Biggest Development: Another 14-Bid Year Already Looking Doubtful
Alabama's road win over St. John's was maybe the most noteworthy result of the first week of the college basketball season and a gigantic feather in the cap of the SEC.
Beyond that, though? Not much worth writing home about from the league that simply rampaged its way through nonconference play one year ago.
Heading into play on Monday, the SEC was 28-5 overall. But take out all of the home games against teams rated outside the KenPom top 175, and you're left looking at a 3-5 record—and even one of those wins was Missouri's season opener at Howard, which is all but certain to be a Quad 4 game, too.
The other seven results in that subset were:
On top of that, Auburn needed OT to survive its opener against Bethune-Cookman, South Carolina had to erase an 11-point deficit in the final four minutes of its overtime win over Southern Miss, and Missouri got a scare in its home opener against SEMO.
They could always go 14-2 again in the SEC-ACC Challenge and help us forget all about this underwhelming start to the year. But what they've done thus far can hardly be considered the ideal blueprint for sending 87.5 percent of the league to the Dance for a second consecutive season.
Mid-Majors Summary (A10, AAC, MVC, MWC, WCC)
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7 Teams in the Projected Field: 13. Gonzaga, 31. San Diego State, 41. Saint Mary's, 44. Utah State, 45. Memphis, 46. Dayton, 52. Northern Iowa
Also Considered: VCU, Colorado State
Biggest Development: Disastrous Start for the Mountain West
The Mountain West Conference has sent at least four teams to the NCAA tournament in each of the past four years. As such, there were an awful lot of "OK, yeah, sure buddy" responses to the fact that only one MWC team (San Diego State) appeared in our preseason projection of the field.
Instead of proving that projection wrong with a dynamite start, it was one calamity after another to open the season.
Right off the bat, you had Boise State losing at home to D-II Hawaii Pacific. Comically, it did nothing to impact the Broncos' KenPom rating, which doesn't factor in non-D1 results. Neither does the NET, by the way, so if Boise State ends up anywhere close to the bubble, there will be constant reminders of the dreadful opener that won't really be baked into any of the data—but that definitely still counts against them.
The following night, UNLV lost at home to Tennessee-Martin. Less than 24 hours later, Fresno State lost at home to USC Upstate.
There were no MWC losses on Thursday, but only because there were no MWC games on Thursday. When it returned to action on Friday, Grand Canyon suffered a disappointing home loss to Youngstown State. And the cherry on the sundae was Air Force losing at home by 20 to Austin Peay.
There were several other losses along the way, including two by San Jose State. But outside of Utah State's neutral-site victory over VCU—in which the Aggies even blew an 18-point second-half lead before snatching victory from the jaws of defeat—it was an ugly start for the league.
We do now have the Mountain West projected for multiple bids, but only because Marquette, Maryland, Texas A&M and Oklahoma all tumbled out of the field.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field: 47. Akron, 48. Liberty, 49. Yale, 50. High Point, 51. Hawaii, 53. McNeese, 54. Troy, 55. Utah Valley, 56. UNC Wilmington, 57. Youngstown State, 58. Siena, 59. Little Rock, 60. East Tennessee State, 61. South Dakota State, 62. Vermont, 63. Portland State, 64. Southern, 65. Navy, 66. Eastern Kentucky, 67. Norfolk State, 68. Long Island
Also Considered: N/A
Biggest Development: Southland Might Be Competitive Again
Over the past two seasons under Will Wade's watch, McNeese tore right through an otherwise helpless Southland Conference like a hot knife through butter.
Including the conference tournament games, the Cowboys went 40-2, with one loss coming in their first game of each February—when they maybe started to believe a little too much that they were destined to run the table.
With Wade now coaching at NC State, though, McNeese may fall back to the pack quite a bit, already suffering a 12-point loss at Santa Clara in which the Cowboys allowed the Broncos to corral 25 offensive rebounds.
Meanwhile, two of the teams that have already made the biggest positive strides compared to their preseason KenPom ratings are the Southland's Stephen F. Austin and UT Rio Grande Valley. The Lumberjacks pummeled Arkansas State in their lone D1 game to date, while the Vaqueros put up a decent fight at Baylor before scoring a 23-point road win over Southern Utah.
This is noteworthy because when the Southland champ isn't a No. 16 seed, it tends to be a problem. McNeese won a game in last year's Dance, Abilene Christian upset Texas in 2021 and Stephen F. Austin pulled off a first-round upset in both 2014 and 2016.
So, if No. 15 seed UTRGV is this year's Cinderella story with a starting point guard by the name of Always Wright becoming a viral sensation, don't say we didn't warn you.
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