MLB Trade Deadline: Odds of Potential Trade Targets Being Dealt
With MLB's July 31 non-waiver trade deadline now less than two weeks away, we should finally begin to see some action in what has so far been a stagnant market.
Entering play Wednesday, 19 teams sat within six games or fewer of a playoff spot, which means the sport is flush with potential buyers.
A handful of sellers have also emerged, however, with big prizes to dangle—superstar-caliber players who would measurably shift the baseball landscape if they switched uniforms.
Let's run through a baker's dozen of these top trade targets and handicap the odds that they'll change zip codes on or before the deadline.
We'll stretch the definition of "superstar" in a few cases (hello, Ben Zobrist), but we're narrowing our focus to guys who've made All-Star teams, won major awards and, again, would make a significant, immediate impact wherever they land.
All right, enough preamble—let's get on with the odds.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
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Yes, Carlos Gonzalez suffered through a disastrous, injury-riddled 2014 campaign, hitting a paltry .238 in 70 contests.
Over the past month-plus, however, the 29-year-old two-time All-Star has begun to look like his old self, raising his slugging percentage more than 100 points since June 5.
"Finally, I'm getting my timing back, which is the biggest key for me," Gonzalez said, per Nick Groke of the Denver Post. "I'm able to sit back on my back leg. It was something I wasn't able to do that last two years. But I knew at some point I'd get there. I'm still confident."
Add the fact that he's under team control through 2017, and you have a potentially valuable trade chip waiting to be cashed in by the last-place Colorado Rockies, who resemble a club in need of a full-blown rebuild.
Whether anyone will offer a package rich enough to force Colorado's hand remains to be seen.
Odds of a trade: 25-1
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
2 of 13
Ask Troy Tulowitzki if he wants to keep wearing a Colorado Rockies uniform, and he'll answer in the affirmative.
Here's what he told MLB.com's Tracy Ringolsby, referencing the 10-year, $157.75 million pact he inked with Colorado in 2010: "I didn't sign my contract because I wanted to be somewhere else. I signed my contract because I want to be with the Rockies."
Of course, it's not up to Tulo, and the Rockies have at least dangled their All-Star shortstop, as general manager Jeff Bridich told the Denver Post's Groke:
"There was never anything that remotely came close to happening [last season]. But, I've already had discussions with GMs. I plan on having 29 of those discussions, at least, before the deadline is over. So I imagine his name will come up. With some of that, it's partly who he is and the type of player he is and also the time of the year.
"
That doesn't indicate a trade is imminent, but it does sound like the phone lines will be open in the Mile High City.
Odds of a trade: 20-1
Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds
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After his dominant performance in front of an appreciative home crowd at the 2015 All-Star Game, Aroldis Chapman is almost certainly near the top of a lot of trade-deadline wish lists.
Nearly everyone needs late-inning help, after all, and the Cincinnati Reds closer is one of the best in the business, as his 1.56 ERA and blistering fastball attest.
The Reds—who sit 17 games back in the National League Central—haven't decided if they'll move Chapman, who is under team control for another season, per Nightengale.
If they do, the price will surely be steep. And a contending club with bullpen anxiety will quite possibly pay it.
Odds of a trade: 15-1
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Justin Upton, OF, San Diego Padres
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Justin Upton has missed a pair of games with tightness in his left oblique, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Tribune.
That throws a damp duvet over the Friars' already disappointing season, and more importantly, it diminishes Upton's trade value, as Lin noted:
"Upton's current status casts some doubt over both the Padres' hopes of a last-minute run up the standings and the potential for a trade by the July 31 deadline. Although industry evaluators had nearly unanimously agreed that Upton would be moved, this is the second occurrence of the injury, and the 27-year-old's numbers are significantly down following an impressive May. Since the beginning of June, Upton has hit .175 with just three home runs in 137 at-bats.
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The Pads could still probably land a decent return for Upton, one of the few impact bats on the block and one of the best young hitters in the game. But the injury questions move his stock from sure thing to wait-and-see—and the July 31 deadline affords precious little time for waiting.
Odds of a trade: 10-1
Johnny Cueto, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
5 of 13
The Reds have another arm potentially on the block who has drawn interest from, well, just about everyone who needs an arm, as reported by CBS Sports' Jon Heyman.
If Johnny Cueto isn't the most sought-after starting pitcher on the market, he's up there. Yes, he struggled in his most recent start July 19, walking six in a scant four innings, which led an unnamed executive to tell ESPN.com's Jayson Stark he found "everything" about Cueto's performance alarming.
Hyperbole aside, Cueto is in the midst of another typically stellar season, with a 2.79 ERA and 0.954 WHIP. He's also an impending free agent, so the Reds could overplay their hand and watch potential suitors balk, opting instead to take a crack at the 29-year-old right-hander this winter.
Still, given the preponderance of chatter and Cueto's track record, don't be surprised if he's throwing for a contender down the stretch.
Odds of a trade: 7-1
Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
6 of 13
Despite failing to get through the fourth inning in each of his last two starts and watching his ERA for the season balloon to 3.91, Cole Hamels is still a sweet-smelling commodity.
Among those sniffing around the 31-year-old southpaw are the Texas Rangers, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. And the Los Angeles Dodgers, a deep-pocketed suitor with a thin back end of the rotation, are surely at least on the periphery, as Jon Heyman reported for CBS Sports.
Anyone who nabs Hamels would be getting more than a rental, as the three-time All-Star is signed through 2018 with an option for 2019.
The Philadelphia Phillies have so far been reluctant to kick off a much-needed rebuild, opting to keep many veteran pieces past their sell-by date.
They'd be wise to cash in Hamels while his stock is high, though it's been a minute since wisdom and the Phils' front office were simpatico.
Odds of a trade: 6-1
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Detroit Tigers
7 of 13
After winning four consecutive division titles, the Detroit Tigers find themselves in third place in the American League Central, staring up at the defending AL champion Kansas City Royals and the upstart Minnesota Twins.
Painful as it may be, the time has arrived for a fire sale in Detroit.
Yoenis Cespedes isn't the Tigers' biggest potential trade chip (more on that in a moment), but in today's power-starved MLB, he's sure to draw plenty of interest, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today has reported that Cespedes is available.
In fact, the slugging Cuban is in the midst of arguably his best big league season, hitting .289 with 14 home runs, 54 RBI and an .803 OPS.
Cespedes, of course, was shipped from the Oakland A's to the Boston Red Sox last season, so he's no stranger to midseason swaps.
Assuming Detroit doesn't ask for the moon and the stars, he could be on the move again in the immediate future.
Odds of a trade: 5-1
Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
8 of 13
Carlos Gomez has been linked to a number of clubs, including the Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros, per MLB Trade Rumors.
The Gold Glove winner and two-time All-Star would offer a boost to any of the above, even if he'd prefer to stay put.
"I don't think it's going to happen and I don't have this on my mind," said Gomez, who is under club control for another season, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "The only thing I have on my mind is [to] play every day and give everything I have."
That's the sort of rhetoric you hope for. And maybe Gomez will remain a Brewer. But with the Brew Crew floundering in last place in the hyper-competitive NL Central and so many squads searching for offense, there's at least a decent chance he won't.
Odds of a trade: 5-1
David Price, LHP, Detroit Tigers
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Getting back to the Detroit Tigers—Cespedes is an interesting piece, but David Price is the main event.
Price, you'll recall, was Detroit's headline-grabbing acquisition in 2014. The ace left-hander came over from the Tampa Bay Rays and helped push the Tigers into October, though he lost his only postseason start despite a strong effort.
This season, he has been typically stellar, posting a 2.32 ERA with 127 strikeouts in 132 innings and making his fifth All-Star appearance.
Price's fate will say a lot about Detroit's plans and whether the club is ready for a full-on rebuild that will stock its barren farm system, which is ranked the worst in the game by Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter and basically everyone else.
GM Dave Dombrowski, who like Price is in the last year of his contract, sounded a nebulous note, per USA Today's Nightengale: "We're at a point where we have to do what's best in our heart for the franchise."
Theoretically, that's dealing Price and Cespedes. Whether theory translates into action remains to be seen.
Odds of a trade: 5-1
Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Chicago White Sox
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Jeff Samardzija was dealt last year at the deadline, jumping from the Chicago Cubs to the Oakland A's.
Then this winter, the right-hander switched laundry again, returning to the Windy City as a member of the Chicago White Sox.
He hasn't been as dominant since arriving on the South Side, posting a pedestrian 4.08 ERA in 132.1 innings.
But the 30-year-old is once again in the trade-deadline mix, per CBS Chicago's Bruce Levine.
With the White Sox sitting 13.5 games out, in last place in the AL Central, some selling is in order. And Samardzija, an impending free agent, is the most logical target.
"They know the situation is there," manager Robin Ventura said, per Levine. "There is no sense to worrying about something that is out of your hands."
Odds of a trade: 4-1
Scott Kazmir, LHP, Oakland A's
11 of 13
Sonny Gray, the Oakland Athletics' top starting pitcher, is "not going anywhere," assistant general manager David Forst told 95.7 The Game in early July, per CSN Bay Area's Joe Stiglich.
If that's true, it's bad news for buyers who are hoping to bolster their rotations. But another A's hurler, Scott Kazmir, would make a fine consolation prize.
No, Kazmir hasn't quite matched Gray's output this season, but he's been plenty good, posting a 2.38 ERA with 101 strikeouts in 109.2 innings.
He's been especially dominant of late, as MLB.com's Jane Lee noted after his stellar outing July 19:
"Before he was touched for a ninth-inning run, he had not allowed an earned run in his previous 20 innings dating to June 27. Going back to his last seven starts, he has a 1.35 ERA, having limited the opposition to a .175 batting average over that span—all amid trade rumors.
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With Oakland still buried in last place in the AL West, general manager Billy Beane figures to be his usual active self at the deadline. And the rumors about Kazmir could easily turn to reality.
Odds of a trade: 3-1
Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
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If we're talking about Phillies pitchers on the block, Jonathan Papelbon is ready and waiting for a trade.
He's been waiting at least since last July, when he told MLB.com's Todd Zolecki it was "mind-boggling" that any player would want to remain on a losing team.
This year, Papelbon made his sixth All-Star squad and has mostly pitched like one of the game's preeminent closers.
He has a $13 million vesting option that could kick in for 2016 depending on his performance the rest of the way, but at this point, the 34-year-old right-hander is a worthwhile gamble for any contender looking to beef up its relief corps.
In case his desire was unclear, Papelbon told Mike Vorkunov of NJ Advanced Media it was time for Philly to, uh, make a bowel movement or exit the commode. He added, "I do wanna make a change at this point in my career and move somewhere. And have a chance to win another ring."
Odds of a trade: 3-1
Ben Zobrist, UTL, Oakland A's
13 of 13
Ben Zobrist is the Swiss Army knife of the trade deadline, able to fill many theoretical roles.
So it's no surprise the 34-year-old, who has played second base and outfield and has seen time at designated hitter for the Oakland A's, is drawing aggressive interest.
In fact, the offense-starved New York Mets have advanced to the point where they're "discussing pieces" with Oakland, per Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News.
Yes, Zobrist is having a down year, posting a .258 average that's his lowest since 2010.
On the other hand, considering his versatility, on-base capabilities, the dearth of viable bats on the market and the fact that Zobrist will be a free agent after the season, it's hard to imagine Beane not swinging a deal.
Odds of a trade: 2-1
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