College Football Playoff Bracket Projections and Predictions after Week 10

The first week of November sent a shakeup through the latter half of the College Football Playoff conversation.

Miami's loss at SMU pushed the Hurricanes out of the projection, and Georgia Tech's setback at North Carolina State provided a chance for a different ACC team to join the bracket. Virginia—yes, Virginia—is now in the field.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 has positioned itself for a showdown. Texas Tech and BYU, the league's two teams in the projection, square off in Week 11.

And there's no shortage of critical Big Ten and SEC games on the horizon.

The projections for the CFP are based on the latest B/R Top 25, which both recent results have shaped and upcoming games will change.

Key Results in Week 10

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John Mateer

SMU 26, Miami 20 (OT)
North Carolina State 48, Georgia Tech 36

One month ago, would you have believed Miami wouldn't be a real contender in the ACC? Such is life for the 'Canes, who collapsed at SMU and fell to 6-2. It would take a miracle for Miami, ranked No. 2 nationally just a few weeks back, to build a convincing CFP case. Later in the night, NC State threw a twist into the conference race in an impressive upset of Georgia Tech.

North Texas 31, Navy 17

Navy had an opportunity to earn a critical win. Instead, the Midshipmen stumbled early and could not recover from a 21-3 deficit. They're still a factor in the American, but Navy's result—tethered with Tulane's setback to UTSA on Friday—means the conference standings show six programs with one-loss records.

Texas 34, Vanderbilt 31
Oklahoma 33, Tennessee 27

Texas, Oklahoma and Tennessee all entered the weekend with two-loss records, so none could afford a third season loss—though one was guaranteed. Texas quickly built a 21-point lead at Vandy and held on for a victory, and OU withstood a late Tennessee surge, as well. That leaves Texas, Vandy and OU on the fringe of the CFP race but still very much alive.

B/R's Top 25 After Week 10

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Behren Morton

B/R Top 25

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Oregon
6. Georgia
7. BYU
8. Ole Miss
9. Texas Tech
10. Virginia
11. Georgia Tech
12. Louisville
13. Notre Dame
14. Oklahoma
15. Vanderbilt
16. Utah
17. Texas
18. Michigan
19. Missouri
20. USC
21. Memphis
22. Washington
23. Cincinnati
24. Pittsburgh
25. North Texas

Post-Week 10 CFP Picture

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Chandler Morris

Bracket Format

Automatic bids: The highest-ranked team within five conferences. (Ultimately, the league champion will receive an auto-bid.)

1. Ohio State (No. 1, Big Ten)
2. Texas A&M (No. 3, SEC)
3. BYU (No. 7, Big 12)
4. Virginia (No. 10, ACC)
5. Memphis (No. 21, American)

At-large bids: The next seven highest-ranked teams in the country.

1. Indiana (No. 2)
2. Alabama (No. 4)
3. Oregon (No. 5)
4. Georgia (No. 6)
5. Ole Miss (No. 8)
6. Texas Tech (No. 9)
7. Georgia Tech (No. 11)

Rankings are based on latest B/R Top 25.

Initial CFP Rankings on the Way

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Carnell Tate

At long last, the consequential Top 25 is (almost) here.

We love tracking the AP poll and building our own consensus ranking each week. You, generally speaking, love reading them, too. The reality is, though, that your opinions and ours—plus the Coaches Poll, various analytics or other sources—ultimately do not carry much influence.

No, these decisions rest in the hands of the College Football Playoff selection committee. The group's initial poll is set to be released Tuesday night.

Ohio State, we can say confidently, will be No. 1.

Beyond that, however, it's merely an educated guess. Which factors—overall record, head-to-head results, quality wins, strength of schedule, common opponents, the nebulous "game control" and so on—will matter most to the committee? And, more importantly, will those elements be applied consistently?

We'll be watching with appropriately critical eyes as the 2025 campaign hits a much-anticipated, very important landmark.

Impact Games in Week 11

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Marcel Reed

American: Tulane at Memphis
Sun Belt: James Madison at Marshall
MWC: San Diego State at Hawaii

The race for the Group of Five's automatic bid to the CFP is intensifying. I will continually offer reminders that the American is the front-runner. But if any other conference is going to catch up, the Sun Belt and Mountain West are best positioned because of JMU (7-1) and SDSU (7-1).

Big 12: BYU at Texas Tech

Easily the headliner of the weekend, BYU and Texas Tech are the highest-ranked teams in the Big 12. Texas Tech already has a conference loss, so there's a little more pressure on the hosts. Regardless, the winner will leave Week 11 with an inside track to making the Big 12 Championship Game.

Big Ten: Oregon at Iowa
SEC: Texas A&M at Missouri

Different leagues, same vibe. Oregon and Texas A&M are viewed as national threats, while Iowa and Missouri are quality two-loss teams. Will the visitors boost their respective résumés, or will either Iowa and/or Mizzou provide some chaos?