Can an RB Win the NFL MVP? Making Jonathan Taylor's Case for the Award

Jonathan Taylor's latest scoring outburst—his three touchdowns on Sunday marked the second consecutive week and third time in the last four games he's accomplished the feat—has raised an interesting question.

Could the Indianapolis Colts star (or any other running back for that matter) win the AP NFL Most Valuable Player award?

There was an easy answer for this until the early 2010s. There was no doubt an RB could win MVP in eras gone by, as 18 backs claimed the hardware during a 55-year stretch between 1957 (when Jim Brown won the inaugural award) and 2012, when Adrian Peterson became the last to accomplish the feat.

That question also has a simple answer in 2025: No, it's not going to happen. Quarterbacks have taken home the award every season following AP's scintillating campaign and are more dominant than ever right now.

Could Taylor shift the narrative and put his position back atop the league's hierarchy? It may be possible, but this outcome is highly improbable.

A quarterback is likely to win the award again in 2025 as each of the six current favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook play the position. Despite some truly special running back seasons over the past few years, the position hasn't even had a top-two finisher since Todd Gurley in 2017.

While Taylor has been off to a blistering start, he's going to need an even more spectacular finish to defy the odds.

With that in mind, let's check out the current MVP front-runners, highlight what Taylor has accomplished in the first half of the campaign—and compare it to the more recent RB MVP seasons—and project what he'll need to do over the next nine games to beat out the elite quarterbacks currently competing for the honors.

Who Is Ahead of Taylor in 2025 NFL MVP Race?

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Patrick Mahomes

Taylor's shot at becoming an MVP involves factors well outside his control. With the NFL centered around star quarterbacks, the Colts rusher must hope for a perfect storm of failures involving some of the league's biggest names.

Taylor will need current front-runner Patrick Mahomes—nearly an even-money favorite at +125 and a player who has already won the award twice in his career—to cool off in the back half of the season.

A regression is far from a guaranteed. The Kansas City Chiefs star amassed 1,800 yards and 14 touchdowns through the air in just seven starts and is well on his way to a career rushing season. He picked up 250 yards and already equaled a personal best with four rushing touchdowns.

This added dimension has helped keep the Chiefs afloat through a myriad of wide receiver woes, issues that are starting to get resolved as the team gets healthier.

The two AFC East quarterbacks in serious contention—both Josh Allen and Drake Maye boast MVP odds shorter than 5-1—will need to take a step back too. A trio of proven vets in Baker Mayfield (11-1), Matthew Stafford (11-1) and Jared Goff (18-1) round out the list of favorites midway through the campaign, all of whom would outpace Taylor if they continue on the same trajectory.

Taylor's quarterback is arguably the toughest obstacle to overcome, though.

If Daniel Jones (who at +2000 has the exact same MVP odds as Taylor heading into Week 9) continues to thrive in his first Colts season, it's going to divide voters and lead neither to garner serious MVP consideration.

Unfortunately for Taylor's MVP chances, a notable amount of his own success is due in part to his QB's ability to draw defensive attention away.

What is Taylor's MVP Case So Far?

AP Photo/Zach Bolinger

Taylor has reemerged as the NFL's rushing king in 2025. During a down year for Pro Bowlers like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, he has shown an elite running back can still carry an offense.

Through the first eight games, the 26-year-old has tallied a borderline absurd 850 yards and 12 touchdowns on 143 totes. He's contributing more than ever as a pass-catcher too, reeling in 25 of his 27 targets for 206 yards and a pair of scores.

Taylor has finally found himself back in an ideal situation and is making the most of it. While few doubted his talents following his league-leading 1,811-yard, 18-touchdown rushing performance in 2021, he has been plagued by injury issues in recent seasons.

After missing 16 games between 2022-24, Taylor is again leading an offense that has been rejuvenated, thanks to his health and the addition of Daniel Jones.

Having a competent quarterback under center has greatly aided Taylor's already-impressive efficiency metrics, as he's now averaging a career-high 5.9 yards per carry—up 1.2 yards from last year.

Unfortunately for Taylor, Jones' sudden emergence, after nearly a half-decade of struggles with the New York Giants, is also drawing its own MVP consideration.

To shift the narrative and boost his odds of winning, Taylor would need to see Jones start to fall off while still managing to keep Indy's league-leading offense humming by taking his game to another level.

How is Taylor's Season Measuring Up to Saquon Barkley's 2024 Efforts?

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Saquon Barkley

Taylor isn't the only running back to generate MVP buzz in recent years. Saquon Barkley forced his way into the discussion during a transcendent 2024 campaign.

Through eight games, Taylor is stating a similar case to his Philadelphia Eagles counterpart. At this juncture last season, Barkley had amassed 925 yards and six touchdowns on the ground and added 146 yards and a pair of scores on 20 catches.

While Barkley outgained Taylor by 15 total yards, the latter has outpaced the former by six touchdowns.

Those scores give the Colts star a serious edge in the MVP race, as he's currently on par to try to challenge LaDainian Tomlinson's record of 31 combined rushing and receiving scores set during an MVP season in 2006.

Barkley notably generated a ton of interest when he threatened Eric Dickerson's longstanding single-season rushing yardage record, but ultimately fell 100 yards short and had to settle for a third-place finish in the MVP race behind eventual winner Josh Allen and runner-up Lamar Jackson.

If Taylor can break the rushing/receiving scoring record (or even the 28 rushing touchdown mark LT also set in 2006), it would go a long way towards convincing voters he's the league's MVP.

How Does Taylor's Performance Compare to AP's MVP Season?

AP Photo/Tom Gannam

Adrian Peterson didn't set any records when he became the most recent running back to claim the MVP award, but he came closer than anyone to besting Dickerson.

There's no question AP would have smashed the 2,105-yard record had the 2012 Minnesota Vikings had the benefit of playing a 17-game schedule.

Peterson finished that 16-game campaign with 2,097 yards and 12 touchdowns on 348 totes. He also contributed 217 yards and a score on 40 catches. Although he didn't lead the league in rushing scores that season (Arian Foster paced the NFL with 15), he put up nearly 500 yards more on the ground than second-place rushing finisher Alfred Morris.

While Taylor has been more productive than AP at the midpoint of his MVP campaign (Peterson had amassed 775 yards and four touchdowns on 151 carries over the first eight games), he'll will need to build a much bigger lead on James Cook (who has 753 yards in just seven game) to truly make his MVP argument stand out.

Will Taylor Win the MVP Award?

AP Photo/Gregory Bull

It's not easy for any player to win an MVP award, let alone a running back.

Consistency is key for any contender, as a single poor showing—especially down the stretch in a tight race—could be the difference between being handed the trophy at the NFL Honors ceremony and only being named a finalist.

While Taylor hasn't had any truly bad performances this year, he can't afford many more average outings like the 96 yards and zero touchdowns he had on 22 touches in a Week 4 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

He'll need to regularly breach the triple-digit all-purpose yardage mark and find paydirt enough to challenge some league records while guiding the Colts to a winning season and into the playoffs to have any real chance.

As exciting as it would be to witness a running back claim an MVP award, it's unlikely Taylor will become the player who finally breaks the streak of quarterback wins.

The 2020 second-rounder is having a standout season, but things will get more difficult in the back half as opponents look to stymie his production and force Indy's other skill position players to beat them.

The chances of Taylor overcoming that defensive focus and making a serious run at either Dickerson's rushing record or Tomlinson's touchdown record (or both in a best-case scenario) are quite low.

Unfortunately, that type of record-setting season is what it will take to become an MVP at a position that has vastly diminished in importance over the last decade-plus.

If Saquon Barkley couldn't accomplish the feat last year and Christian McCaffrey came up short in 2023, it's going to take a truly herculean, almost unprecedented nine-game stretch for Taylor to overcome the odds and win the MVP award.