CFP Playoff Bracket, Scenarios and Bowl Projections After 2025-26 Week 10 AP Rankings

The list of College Football Playoff contenders is concise entering November.

There's a strong chance that five SEC schools and three Big Ten programs are in the 12-team field, as well as a pair out of the ACC.

Of course, upsets can happen because, well, this is college football, but for now, there's a clear hierarchy in both conferences. The top teams in each league do not have many significant games left.

The most challenging playoff fight to figure out comes at the Group of Five level, where the Memphis Tigers replaced the South Florida Bulls in the Week 10 AP Top 25.

Memphis beat South Florida on Saturday. The Tigers and Bulls are two of five teams in The American with six or seven wins. The G5 berth will likely come down to the two programs that qualify for The American's conference championship game.

Five-Berth SEC Is A Reality

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Five of the top nine teams in the AP Top 25 come from the SEC.

The Texas A&M Aggies and Alabama Crimson Tide both won tough road games in Week 9, while the Vanderbilt Commodores pulled off another Top 25 win over the Missouri Tigers.

The Ole Miss Rebels earned the biggest win of the quintet with a road triumph over the Oklahoma Sooners.

The Georgia Bulldogs were off on Saturday after they beat Ole Miss last week.

Not many significant tests remain for each of the five teams. A&M, Georgia and Vanderbilt all have to play the Texas Longhorns in November, but Texas is far from the team that was projected as the best in the country in preseason.

Georgia has the toughest remaining game versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Thanksgiving weekend. Georgia Tech could be undefeated going into what will be the biggest rivalry game in Georgia in decades.

A&M and Alabama are in the best spots to earn first-round byes, but if any slip-ups happen, Georgia and Ole Miss will be in the mix for the top four.

Memphis Takes Lead in Group of Five Race

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Memphis' win over South Florida allowed it to jump into the Top 25 at No. 25 on Sunday.

The Tigers are barely in front of the Navy Midshipmen and Tulane Green Wave in the AP poll. Navy and Tulane were the top two teams outside of the top 25 to receive votes. USF was fifth on that list.

Memphis still has to get through Tulane and Navy in November and then The American title game in December to earn the Group of Five playoff berth.

Navy has the toughest remaining schedule of the five contenders in The American, starting with a road game against the North Texas Mean Green on Saturday. The Midshipmen also have to visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Memphis and host USF.

South Florida is still capable of making the playoff because of its early-season wins over the Boise State Broncos and Florida Gators.

The most realistic scenario right now is for the G5 berth to come down to the trio of USF, Memphis and Tulane.

North Texas is still a factor as well, but it needs to beat Navy to prove its worth in the American title race after it was blown out by USF on October 10.