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Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2026 MLB Playoffs and World Series
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers on winning their ninth World Series in franchise history and becoming Major League Baseball's first back-to-back champs in a quarter century.
Now, who's winning the next one?
On the one hand, it is way too early to be hypothesizing about standings and playoff runs for the 2026 MLB season, as there is so much up in the air in the form of player/club options, marquee free agents, and the inevitable blockbuster trade or two.
On the other hand, betting odds for the 2026 World Series were posted before the 2025 World Series had even begun. The entire sport has now officially turned the page to next year. The Dodgers open up as the favorites at 370.
Only half (six) of the teams that made the playoffs in 2022 did so again in 2023. The same goes for the transition from 2023 to 2024. And while the retention rate was a bit higher this year, five teams in the 2025 postseason missed the cut in 2024.
At this not-even-really starting point in the journey to October 2026, we've got eight of this year's postseason teams running it back again next year.
Which four miss the cut, though? And who takes their places?
If you like where your team is projected, you're welcome. But if you hate it, rest easy knowing that only eight of the 12 teams in our way-too-early predictions from last Halloween were correct, with the biggest whiff of all being Toronto projected for dead last in the AL East.
American League East
1 of 7
Biggest Unknown: How will the change in ownership impact Tampa Bay's roster construction?
Pretty much since the franchise's inception three decades ago, we've known better than to think that the Rays might be a candidate to sign any big-name free agent.
Oh, they'll sign a Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin, or Ha-Seong Kim to an eight-figure salary every now and then. However, they've never invested more than $40M in a single free agent, and have never spent a combined sum of $50M on free agents in a single offseason.
With Stu Sternberg passing the ownership reins to this Patrick Zalupski-led venture, though, is that about to change?
Could the Rays be in the mix for a Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger to address an outfield that had little to no pop in 2025?
Or might they swing big for one of the many ace-caliber pitchers available this winter after trading away both Zack Littell and Taj Bradley this summer?
Also, will Shane McClanahan be back?
The two-time All-Star with a career 3.02 ERA hasn't pitched since August 2, 2023, missing all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery and then all of 2025 due to a triceps injury followed by a surgical procedure on the nerves in his pitching arm. But if he's back on the mound and pitching anything like his old self, that's a game-changer for the team that will likely be projected by most to finish in last place in this loaded division.
Other Big Unknowns
Projected 2026 AL East Standings
American League Central
2 of 7
Biggest Unknown: Will Tarik Skubal be Detroit's Opening Day starter?
Two pitchers have started on both Opening Day and in Game 1 of their team's postseason in each of the past two years: Detroit's Tarik Skubal and Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta—two aces born in 1996 who just so happen to both be one year away from hitting free agency for the first time in their careers.
While most everyone expects Peralta to remain with the Brewers on his outrageously team-friendly $8M club option for 2026, Skubal's final relatively affordable year (salary to be determined in arbitration, but estimated by Spotrac at $22.5M) has become the crown jewel of the offseason trade block, a la Kyle Tucker last winter, or Corbin Burnes and Juan Soto from the year prior.
So, does he play out his final season with Detroit? Do the Tigers also buttress their rotation by signing someone like Shane Bieber or Dylan Cease? Or do they trade Skubal away, sign no one remotely worthy of replacing him and just hope for the best in a division where the White Sox and Twins already seem destined for a combined 200 losses?
To some extent, it probably depends upon top prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark and whether the Tigers think those future stars can play a big role in 2026. If not, and say, the Mets offer up Jett Williams and Jonah Tong for Skubal's one remaining year of team control, maybe Detroit takes it and sets its sights on winning it all in 2027.
Other Big Unknowns
- Will Emmanuel Clase and/or Luis Ortiz be available for Cleveland?
- Does Minnesota steer headlong into the rebuild by trading away the likes of Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton?
- How will Kansas City address its offensive woes?
- What do the White Sox do with Luis Robert Jr.?
Projected 2026 AL Central Standings
- Detroit Tigers (88-74)
- Kansas City Royals (80-82)
- Cleveland Guardians (78-84)
- Minnesota Twins (64-98)
- Chicago White Sox (57-105)
American League West
3 of 7
Biggest Unknown: What do Mariners do about key departing free agents?
Trading for a few months of both Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez was a huge part of Seattle's march closer to a World Series than ever before in franchise history. But now the M's are slated to lose those corner infielders, as well as Jorge Polanco, without whom they wouldn't have won that ALDS against Detroit.
Can they afford to do anything about those departures?
If Spotrac's arbitration estimates for Randy Arozarena ($16M), Logan Gilbert ($11.5M) and George Kirby ($6.5M) are accurate, Seattle is already looking at a combined $115M in 2026 salary for its nine most-expensive players, and an overall Opening Day payroll a bit north of $135M. And that's pretty much as high as they've been willing to go in recent years.
So, are the Mariners going to increase spending after coming tantalizingly close to the promised land?
Are they going to trade away Luis Castillo and/or Arozarena to free up some money to maybe re-sign Naylor and/or Polanco?
Or are they just going to bank on what has been one of the highest-rated farm systems over the past five years, hoping that some combination of Cole Young, Harry Ford, Colt Emerson, Ben Williamson, and Lazaro Montes will plug the gaps left behind by the departing veterans?
The Mariners have at least two years left with this championship window until they start losing pieces of the starting rotation to free agency. But they do still need to pull the right strings with the lineup, lest they go right back to their painfully familiar home of repeatedly missing the postseason by one or two games.
Other Big Unknowns
- What will the Rangers look like after another offseason of trimming payroll?
- What does Houston's rotation look like beyond Hunter Brown?
- How do the A's build upon winning 34 of their final 58 games?
- Can the Angels end their 10-year skid of losing seasons?
Projected 2026 AL West Standings
- Seattle Mariners (96-66)
- Houston Astros (88-74, wild card)
- Athletics (82-80)
- Texas Rangers (77-85)
- Los Angeles Angels (65-97)
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National League East
4 of 7
Biggest Unknown: How do the Mets address their rotation woes?
Including an estimated luxury tax payment of $85M, the New York Mets are believed to have spent more than $425M on this past season, second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Yet, from June 13 onward, their starting rotation posted a 5.27 ERA and managed just 15 quality starts (the fewest in baseball) in 93 games, pitching their way out of the postseason picture.
Even though their three biggest salaries hitting free agency are a first baseman (Pete Alonso), closer (Edwin Díaz) and outfielder/designated hitter (Starling Marte), there's really no question that the vast majority of offseason work needs to be done on the rotation.
Fortunately, there's no shortage of options.
They could cut a big check to one (or multiple) of Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Zac Gallen or Shane Bieber. They could also trade for Tarik Skubal, Sandy Alcantara, Joe Ryan, MacKenzie Gore or any number of one-year or two-year solutions.
But they were in a similar boat last winter and tried to repair that boat with chewing gum, masking tape and Frankie Montas rather than investing in a premier arm. If they try to tinker their way through another winter and exit spring training still trying to decide between Nolan McLean and David Peterson as the Opening Day starter, they're liable to throw away yet another year of prime Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor.
Other Big Unknowns
Projected 2026 NL East Standings
National League Central
5 of 7
Biggest Unknown: Where does Kyle Tucker land?
It's the league's biggest unknown that could cost some team upwards of $500M, but it's most pertinently a question for the Chicago Cubs, who either need to figure out how to pay or replace Tucker after one season manning right at Wrigley Field.
Most likely, they'll choose "replace," as they're already looking at a 2026 payroll of around $175M with arguably a lot of work to be done in the bullpen. Moreover, most likely, they'll replace him with whichever of the top outfield prospects, Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara, looks most ready for the job in spring training.
How will that pan out, though, remembering how much of a mess Chicago's third-base situation was in the first half of this season after handing those reins to a rookie?
When exactly will Justin Steele be healthy enough to rejoin the rotation?
And what are the chances Matthew Boyd has another healthy, ace-like season a la 2025 when he barely averaged 50 innings per year from 2021-24?
Despite those potential pitfalls, the Cubs may well enter 2026 as the near-unanimous top challenger to the Dodgers. Let's see if that goes better for them than it did for Atlanta this past season, though.
Other Big Unknowns
Projected 2026 NL Central Standings
National League West
6 of 7
Biggest Unknown: What will the back half of the "other" rotations look like?
While the Los Angeles Dodgers have all of Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Emmet Sheehan, Roki Sasaki, Gavin Stone, River Ryan and more as viable options for the starting rotation, the rest of this division is pretty well drowning in question marks at Nos. 3-5.
The San Francisco Giants will still have one heck of a one-two punch in Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. But if they don't sign an arm this winter, they'll be choosing from Landen Roupp, Trevor McDonald, Hayden Birdsong, Kai-Wei Teng and Carson Whisenhunt to round out the starting five.
Similar predicament for the San Diego Padres, who have Nick Pivetta and a hopefully healthy Joe Musgrove after he missed all of 2025. With Dylan Cease and Michael King hitting free agency and opponents hitting Yu Darvish hard over the past three years, though, there's not much beyond that top two. Randy Vásquez is a fine option, but there could be quite a bit of both JP Sears and Matt Waldron, for better or worse.
Arizona is in the most dire straits of the trio, with Corbin Burnes likely out for all of 2026 and Zac Gallen potentially leaving in free agency. At this point, Eduardo Rodriguez probably starts on Opening Day solely because of seniority, with Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt behind him. What the rest of that rotation looks like is anyone's guess, and we'll see what kind of spending they can afford to do with Burnes' presently dead-weight contract restricting them.
Whichever team figures it out the best becomes the top candidate for a wild card spot.
Other Big Unknowns
Projected 2026 NL West Standings
Projecting the Postseason
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Wild Card Series
NL1: No. 3 New York Mets over No. 6 Milwaukee Brewers
NL2: No. 4 Atlanta Braves over No. 5 San Francisco Giants
AL1: No. 6 Houston Astros over No. 3 Detroit Tigers
AL2: No. 4 Boston Red Sox over No. 5 Toronto Blue Jays
Division Series
NL1: No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 4 Atlanta Braves
NL2: No. 2 Chicago Cubs over No. 3 New York Mets
AL1: No. 1 Seattle Mariners over No. 4 Boston Red Sox
AL2: No. 2 New York Yankees over No. 6 Houston Astros
Championship Series
NLCS: No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 2 Chicago Cubs
ALCS: No. 1 Seattle Mariners over No. 2 New York Yankees
World Series
Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Dodgers
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