Predicting MVP, Rookie of the Year and Every Major 2025-26 NBA Award
As long as the previous season is done, it's never too early to start thinking about the NBA's next round of major award winners.
And the eve of the 2025-26 campaign is as good a time as any to convert thinking into predictions.
Based on odds from FanDuel's sportsbook, some of the new situations stars find themselves in, past performance, leaguewide trends and plenty of subjectivity, we have educated guesses below for MVP, Rookie of the Year and everything in between.
Executive of the Year: Onsi Saleh
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Executive of the Year is one of the tougher awards to pick, but there are a few indicators that generally help.
A significant individual move in the last 12 to 18 months can help, which could point to someone like Rob Pelinka, who orchestrated the Luka Dončić coup.
The addition of some under-the-radar role players is another potential factor. The new Denver Nuggets front office, led by Ben Tenzer and Jon Wallace, seem to have pulled that off.
A good record is almost required. That was a key for Sam Presti winning in 2024-25.
This season, the Atlanta Hawks and lead decision-maker Onsi Saleh have a chance to check all of those boxes.
Taking advantage of the Boston Celtics' fire sale and trading for Kristaps Porziņģis dramatically raises the ceiling for Atlanta's frontcourt. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard bring depth, shooting and defense behind Trae Young.
And those moves could push the Hawks into the mix for a top-four seed in the East.
This is an award that often goes to executives who have "paid their dues," so predicting Saleh is bold (he's only been on the job since April), but the path is there.
Coach of the Year: Joe Mazzulla
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Exceeding expectations is almost always part of the Coach of the Year equation. And after the Celtics made a series of moves to shed salary and get within striking distance of ducking the luxury tax, expectations are low (at least relative to recent Boston history).
The Celtics' preseason over-under is currently 41.5, but playing in the East and still having Jaylen Brown and Derrick White means Boston could top that. Coach Joe Mazzulla's offensive approach could help them crush it.
In the preseason, 53.4 percent of Boston's shot attempts came from three-point range. The Cs could take a handful of games on little more than the disparity in three-point volume.
And if they get close to 50 wins and make the playoffs outright without Jayson Tatum for all or most of the campaign, Mazzulla could get some love in this discussion.
Clutch Player of the Year: Luka Dončić
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This one's nearly impossible to call. There's almost no way to know which teams will be in enough close games to give their players a chance.
You can probably eliminate some of the presumed tankers, like the Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets. It's also safe to assume the Oklahoma City Thunder will be far enough to the other side of the line to take their players out of the mix.
However, that still leaves the overwhelming majority of the league.
So, we'll have to settle on a team that figures to be in the mix and pick a player with the kind of killer instinct that will swing several key games.
The Los Angeles Lakers and Luka Dončić fit that billing.
Regardless of how many games they get from LeBron James, the last several years have proved that surrounding Luka with even moderate talent is good for a win total in the high 40s or low 50s.
And we've certainly seen enough occasions of the 26-year-old being willing to take high-pressure shots at the end of games to think he'll stack up gaudy totals in the clutch.
That will be enough to have Luka in the mix for this possibly unpredictable award.
Most Improved Player: Bennedict Mathurin
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The calculus on this one is a lot simpler.
Bennedict Mathurin is heading into his fourth season, which is right around the typical experience level for winners of this award. His production to this point (15.9 points and 1.8 assists for his career) can certainly be improved upon. And with Tyrese Haliburton likely out for the entire season with a ruptured Achilles, there will be tons of opportunities for that improvement.
He won't take all of the 13.8 shot attempts and 15.8 potential assists Haliburton averaged in 2024-25, but he'll get a big chunk of both. A six- or seven-point jump from last season's scoring average (16.1) is in play. Perhaps more importantly, he could more than double his assists (1.9).
That and the Indiana Pacers outperforming expectations should give Mathurin a good chance to secure this award.
Sixth Man of the Year: John Collins
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Part of the challenge for Sixth Man of the Year is predicting who'll come off the bench in more games than they start.
Josh Hart is tied for the second shortest odds, but he started 77 games last season. Mitchell Robinson may be on track to join a bigger starting five, but it's impossible to rule out a return for Hart. Payton Pritchard looks like a safe bet to start for Boston, but Anfernee Simons eventually taking that role wouldn't be shocking.
There's some danger in picking anyone who has a chance at the more glamorous role, and that exists with John Collins, but the success Ty Lue found with a small-ish starting five that included Derrick Jones Jr. last season is hard to ignore.
Even if Collins gets some spot starts for his new team, Jones and Kawhi Leonard feel like the more permanent options there. That won't prevent Lue from playing Collins 25-30 minutes per game, though.
And if he's getting that kind of playing time, much of it against backups and while being set up by Chris Paul, Collins has a chance to be one of the top scoring reserves. Adding eight or nine rebounds per game to that will put him over the top.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
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There's only one award where the favorite has shorter odds than Victor Wembanyama's minus-185 for Defensive Player of the Year.
And it's not hard to see why.
At 7'4", Wemby would be one of the game's bigger deterrents at the rim with size alone. But his wing-like agility and beyond-his-years defensive instincts make him a truly terrifying rim protector.
He can also wreak havoc as a help defender. He's better on switches to the perimeter than most centers.
And as long as he stays relatively healthy, San Antonio should be able to field a good enough defense to land Wemby his first DPOY nod.
Rookie of the Year: Cooper Flagg
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Not much suspense on those previously mentioned shorter odds. Right now, Cooper Flagg is minus-220 to take home Rookie of the Year, and his preseason performance supports that number.
In four exhibitions, he averaged 17.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.2 blocks per 75 possessions.
He looked about as comfortable orchestrating the offense himself as he did finishing scoring opportunities created by others.
And though this is the one award that typically doesn't have to be accompanied by team success, maintaining the kind of production above for an above-.500 team, which the Dallas Mavericks have a chance to be, makes Flagg a near shoo-in for Rookie of the Year.
Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokić
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Nikola Jokić could have won each of the last five MVPs.
Basketball Reference's MVP Tracker ("based on a model built using previous voting results") had him comfortably in the lead before the votes were tallied each time.
And before a single game has even been played in 2025-26, the model gives him a 56.4 percent chance to earn his fourth award this season (though SGA is the current betting favorite).
If Jokić is anywhere near the 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists he averaged last season, he'll be in the mix. If his Nuggets make a little better push toward the West's top seed, it may be his award to lose.
No one in the league produces as prolifically, efficiently and consistently. No one impacts winning the way he does (his net rating swing is off the charts every year).
And now that Denver has what appears to be a more competent second unit behind him, his team's record may not hold him back in quite the same way it has before.
There are other worthy candidates in the mix. SGA, Luka, Giannis Antetokounmpo and even Wemby could have realistic shots. But this is Jokić's era. And a fourth MVP would make that even clearer than it already is.
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