It's Not Close, Baker Mayfield is the Frontrunner for NFL MVP

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is having one of the most unpredictably impressive NFL campaigns we've seen in some time. We're only six weeks in, but it's been six weeks of potentially career-defining football.

The 30-year-old might also be poised to be the most unexpected MVP since Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson won the award as sophomore QBs in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

Mayfield made a Pro Bowl appearance in each of the past two seasons, but even then, he felt more like a nice story than a legitimately elite quarterback. That narrative has changed in 2025, though, as Mayfield is playing as well as virtually anyone at any position right now.

The narrative could change again over the final 12 weeks of the season, but Mayfield has to be considered the early front-runner for MVP. There are multiple reasons why and multiple reasons why it isn't particularly close.

This Year's MVP Field Has Already Been Weakened

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

Before we dive into Mayfield's early MVP resume, it's worth looking at how the rest of the MVP favorites measure up. Since the MVP has essentially become a quarterback-only award, Mayfield is competing against the best signal-callers in the NFL.

Well, he's battling against some of the best. The Cincinnati Bengals lost Joe Burrow to a toe injury that required surgery and a lengthy recovery period in Week 2. The Baltimore Ravens have been without Lamar Jackson for the past two weeks because of a hamstring injury.

While Jackson is expected to return after Baltimore's Week 7 bye, the 1-5 Ravens may be too far out of the playoff picture to give Jackson any realistic push at MVP.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is in a similar situation, even if he's been playing at an MVP level. Players on losing rosters rarely gain serious awards consideration.

Jackson and Prescott were two early favorites we were willing to buy as MVP candidates after Burrow's injury. They already feel like substantial long shots. Washington Commanders star Jayden Daniels has also missed time due to injury, while Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love haven't maintained the high level of play they showcased over the first two weeks.

Several early favorites have dipped in the past few weeks, while Mayfield continues to impress.

Mayfield Has the Stats (and Tampa Has the Record)

AP Photo/Stephen Brashear

Buccaneers C Graham Barton celebrates with QB Baker Mayfield on Oct. 5

Herbert had a bounce-back game on Sunday, though he needed it to carry the Los Angeles Chargers to a 4-2 record. Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had an efficient, if unimpressive, game against a bad Baltimore defense while also pushing his team to 4-2.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Daniels will both be in action on Monday night. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff did battle on Sunday night. Mahomes had the better game and got the win, but that only pulled Kansas City to .500.

According to DraftKings, the top six MVP favorites as of early Monday morning are Allen, Mahomes, Mayfield, Stafford, Herbert, and Goff.

Could a quarterback like Daniel Jones or Drake Maye enter the picture if their teams keep rolling? Of course. However, Mayfield's numbers are up there with any of the early favorites.

The eighth-year quarterback has now thrown for 1,539 yards with 12 touchdowns and one interception. He's also scrambled for 158 yards. This puts Mayfield on pace for a season with 4,104 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and 422 rushing yards. He's completed 66.1 percent of his passes.

Allen logged 3,731 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, six interceptions, 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns while completing 64.7 percent of his passes during last year's MVP campaign. Yes, those 12 rushing touchdowns can't be ignored, but Mayfield isn't really a run-heavy quarterback.

Most importantly? The Buccaneers are tied for the best record in football at 5-1.

Jones' Indianapolis Colts are also sitting at 5-1, and Allen's Bills will have a chance to get to that mark on Monday. However, Mayfield has the Bucs sitting in a very select group.

Mayfield Has Been Clutch While Playing the Best Ball of His Career

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

Baker Mayfield

Coming into Week 6, Mayfield didn't lead the league in any meaningful statistical category—except for game-winning drives.

Prescott led in completions, Stafford led in passing yards, Goff led in passing touchdowns, and Jackson led in passer rating. Mayfield, though, engineered four game-winning drives in Tampa's four wins, each of them culminating in points with less than a minute remaining in regulation.

A year ago, Mahomes led the NFL with seven fourth-quarter comebacks. No other quarterback had more than five.

Mayfield is quickly becoming that opposing quarterback no team wants to give the ball to at the end of regulation. He can throw the football to any spot on the field, and if defenses manage to take that away, he's content to carry the offense with his legs.

If anyone wants to argue that an MVP quarterback has to come up big in the biggest moments, well, Mayfield has been as clutch as they come.

We're not talking about a great quarterback who has simply fallen into chances for late-game heroics, either. Mayfield has been that, but it must be noted that he's also playing at the highest level of his career.

Mayfield isn't big, fast or overly athletic, but he's shown elite arm strength, ball placement and downfield accuracy this season.

Mayfield has also done a better job of diagnosing defenses, making quick decisions and making good decisions than he has in years past. He's taking fewer sacks (10) and taking much better care of the football.

Over the past two seasons, Mayfield averaged 40 sacks and 13 interceptions.

For a player to be considered "most valuable," he can't regularly hurt his team. It was a jump in efficiency and a dip in turnovers that helped Allen claim the MVP last season, after all. Mayfield is on a similar trajectory in 2025.

Mayfield Is Doing More With Less

AP Photo/Rich Schultz

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield and RB Rachaad White on Oct. 12

What's most impressive about Mayfield is the fact that he's had all of his early 2025 success while operating without a full supporting cast.

The Bucs opened the season without starting left tackle Tristan Wirfs and without starting wide receiver Chris Godwin. They've since seen both return but have seen Godwin again sidelined by injury, along with No. 1 wideout Mike Evans, starting running back Bucky Irving, right guard Cody Mauch and right tackle Luke Goedeke.

While Mayfield didn't need to engineer a fourth-quarter comeback against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, he did spend most of the game without rookie phenom Emeka Egbuka, who exited with a hamstring injury.

Instead of being flustered by playing almost exclusively with backups, Mayfield dialed up big-time throws to the likes of third-string receiver Kameron Johnson.

It obviously helps to have good backups and an offensive coordinator in Josh Grizzard who clearly knows how to play to Mayfield's strengths. However, Mayfield has been the one offensive constant during Tampa's 5-1 start, and he certainly hasn't enjoyed the top-tier supporting casts that quarterbacks like Stafford, Goff and Allen have had this season.

Mayfield's MVP candidacy may ultimately hinge on upcoming road matchups with Goff (Week 7), Allen (Week 11) and Stafford (Week 12), but right now, he's doing more with less than any quarterback in the NFL.

Mayfield hasn't quite reached the level of prime Tom Brady, who seemed capable of making any wide receiver a star. However, he's making those around him better, which is undoubtedly an MVP-worthy quality.

Stories Matter, and Mayfield is Spinning a Great One

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

Baker Mayfield

Everyone, including NFL awards voters, loves a good story. That's especially true if the good story is a fresh one. That's likely why Jackson wasn't able to repeat last year, even though his numbers were better, almost across the board, than they were during his 2024 MVP campaign.

Mayfield isn't exactly a new story, but his rise has been novel enough to make him a "newer" star than players like Allen (reigning MVP), Mahomes (former MVP) and Daniels (reigning OROY). His story overall is quite incredible.

A walk-on at two different college programs, Mayfield earned his starting opportunities and parlayed them into a Heisman Trophy and first-round consideration in the 2018 NFL draft.

The Cleveland Browns selected Mayfield first overall, followed him to their first playoff win since returning to the NFL, and then jettisoned him four years later after being presented the chance to acquire Deshaun Watson.

Mayfield was then traded to the Carolina Panthers, who eventually benched him before agreeing to release him. After a five-game stint with the Los Angeles Rams, Mayfield got an opportunity with the Bucs. He's since become their franchise quarterback and a leader Tampa has rallied behind.

"That's my dog, man," Irving said after Mayfield's second comeback win of the season, per Sports Illustrated's Brigid Kennedy. "...Them the type of quarterbacks that you want around—highly competitive, that wanna win football games. I'd go to war with him any day of the week."

Time and time again, Mayfield has beaten the odds to find success. Now that he's finding it consistently, opinions have changed about the passion and confidence with which Mayfield plays—as the QB himself recently noted.

"Early on in my career, it's looked at as cocky, immature," Mayfield told reporters after the Week 5 win over the Seattle Seahawks. "Now, it's moxie."

Mayfield isn't wrong, but that change in perception is quickly turning him into a player others want to see succeed.

By winning and winning consistently, Mayfield has managed to reinvent his image by being who he's always been: an underdog who simply refuses to be written off.

The Buccaneers have inherited that identity this season, becoming an exciting, fun team that keeps meeting adversity head-on and finding ways to overcome. If you believe that Mayfield is the catalyst behind Tampa's resilience, it's hard to believe that anyone in the NFL has been more valuable to his team this season.

There certainly hasn't been a quarterback with a more astonishing tale.

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