Buying or Selling the Top NFL MVP Favorites Heading into Week 3

NFL fans got a good look at one of the early NFL MVP favorites on Thursday night, when Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills outlasted the rival Miami Dolphins 31-21.

Week 3 has only just begun, of course, but it's never too early to start thinking who could be the next NFL MVP. There's still a whole lot of season left to unfold, obviously, but tracking the MVP race is part of the fun.

This, of course, means tracking the top quarterbacks in the NFL. While NFL MVP isn't technically a quarterback-only award, no non-QB has won since Adrian Peterson did it in 2012.

Does Allen, the reigning MVP, have a legitimate chance to repeat? Can Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson claim the third MVP of his career? Who else has a realistic shot of unseating last season's top-two vote-getters?

Let's dive into the early MVP favorites, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, and try to separate the pretenders form the contenders.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Bills QB Josh Allen

Odds: +300

The biggest potential problem for Allen is that, as the reigning MVP, he isn't an interesting new story. Awards voters love fresh faces and new topics, and Allen is neither of those things.

However, owning one win over Jackson gave Allen a step in the right direction. His numbers thus far aren't necessarily better than his Baltimore counterpart, but Allen jumped Jackson on the top favorite after moving to 3-0 on Thursday.

Allen came into Thursday night with 542 passing yards, 89 rushing yards and four combined touchdowns. He added 213 passing yards, three touchdowns and 25 rushing yards against Miami.

Was it the prettiest win by Buffalo? No, but Allen made no critical mistakes and pocketed another victory.

Of course, Allen's aura has never been centered solely on style points. Highlight-reel moments? Maybe. He's an MVP candidate because he takes over games in the big moments in ways few other quarterbacks can. If he leads Buffalo to the No. 1 seed, that win over Jackson could be the tiebreaker that allows Allen to repeat.

Verdict: Buy

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

Odds: +320

The biggest obstacle between Jackson and another MVP is the fact that he's already lost the regular-season head-to-head matchup with Allen. Fans aren't going to forget the epic comeback that Allen led to achieve that outcome either.

However, Jackson could be considered a bit of a feel-good story since many believed he should have won the award over Allen last year. He did lead the NFL in passer rating (119.6) while throwing a career-high 41 touchdowns and rushing for 915 yards.

It's early, but Jackson is on track to potentially have an even more impressive season this year. He has a 136.6 passer rating and six touchdown passes and is averaging a career-high 11.5 air yards per attempt.

For Jackson, a lot will hinge on whether he stays healthy and whether the Ravens can claim the AFC's top seed. If those things happen, and his numbers remain consistent, the 28-year-old could absolutely become a three-time MVP.

Verdict: Buy

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers

AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps

Packers QB Jordan Love

Odds: +700

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love appears poised to have the best season of his career. He's clearly healthier than he was a year ago, when he suffered an MCL sprain in Week 1, and has the best receiving corps he's ever had.

The Packers are also playing like the best team in the NFL through two weeks. The best quarterback on the best team usually has a shot at MVP when the numbers are close.

Love's numbers (480 yards, 4 TDs, 120.0 QB rating) are certainly good enough to be in the MVP conversation right now.

Here's the problem, though. If Green Bay does wind up with the NFL's best record, some voters are likely to look at the Micah Parsons trade—and not Love—as the reason why.

Parsons may even steal a few MVP votes, and if Love isn't viewed as the best player on his own team, he'll have a hard time winning MVP this season.

Verdict: Sell

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

AP Photo/David Becker

Chargers QB Justin Herbert

Odds: +800

Like the Ravens and the Bills, the Los Angeles Chargers have a realistic shot at unseating the Chiefs as kings of the AFC this season. If L.A. causes Kansas City to not win the AFC West for the first time since 2015, it's going to draw a ton of national attention .

Fans—and awards voters—will wonder what changed to make the Chargers so much more competitive. Through two weeks, the biggest difference has been the unleashing of Justin Herbert.

When Jim Harbaugh took over the Chargers last season, he implemented a run-heavy offense to complement an aggressive defense. Herbert played the game-manager role well but rarely took over games and certainly didn't yield gaudy statistics.

So far this year, Herbert has been the focal point of the offense, and there could be several reasons for that. For one, Herbert is healthy after battling a high-ankle sprain in 2024. He also has an improved receiving corps thanks to the return of Keenan Allen.

If Herbert can pair the sort of numbers he had early in his career—and he already has 560 passing yards, five touchdowns and a 127.8 QB rating—with the team success the Chargers had last year, Herbert can become the MVP.

Verdict: Buy

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders

AP Photo/Morry Gash

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels

Odds: 1600

Despite being a rookie last season, Jayden Daniels was one of the best all-around signal-callers in all of football. A dynamic dual threat and a bona fide leader, Daniels seemingly willed the Washington Commanders to a playoff berth and an appearance in the NFC title game.

Entering the MVP conversation is the logical next step for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, Daniels won't take that step in 2025 if the Commanders regress.

A regression isn't just possible for Washington, it's likely. The Commanders repeatedly stole wins late in one-score games last season, and that's just not a sustainable recipe.

Add in the fact that Daniels is already dealing with a knee sprain—which could significantly impact his efficacy as a runner—and the 24-year-old feels like more of a long shot than his odds might suggest.

Verdict: Sell

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Ed Zurga

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Odds: +1600

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes may have his best shot at winning MVP since he last did it in 2022. Of course, he and Kansas City need to start doing some actual winning on the field first.

The 0-2 Chiefs have been hamstrung by a lack of reliable receiver depth, which has led to Mahomes playing hero ball without a true sidekick. For him, the numbers aren't good (58.8 completion percentage, 82.0 QB rating), nor are the results.

But if Mahomes can somehow pull Kansas City out of its funk and carry the Chiefs to another top seed, he'll earn real MVP consideration. Voters pay attention to supporting casts, and Mahomes' isn't great. It'll be better when Xavier Worthy returns from injury and Rashee Rice returns from suspension, but folks will remember how the season started.

Mahomes is facing as much adversity as he has as a pro, and everyone loves to see a star overcome a challenge. Right now, though, Mahomes may face too many challenges to hit the milestones he'd need to win his third MVP.

Verdict: Sell

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AP Photo/Eric Gay

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield

Odds: +2000

If voters love a good story, they have to love the idea of Baker Mayfield as an MVP candidate. The first overall pick in the 2018 draft has become a star for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but only after stints with the Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams.

Few players in modern memory have battled back from being a borderline bust like Mayfield has. In addition to leading two late game-winning drives in as many weeks this season, Mayfield has produced passing numbers that rival the best in the league since his arrival in Tampa.

The big question is whether Mayfield and the Bucs look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders by the end of the regular season—the MVP is a regular-season award. That could prove difficult, given the injuries Tampa has already sustained this season.

Of course, Mayfield's status as a gritty, chippy underdog competitor would work for him if the Bucs overcome their challenges and keep those wins coming.

Verdict: Buy

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts

Odds: +2000

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has the defending champions sitting at 2-0 and he certainly looked like an MVP favorite in the season-opener. Against the rival Dallas Cowboys, Hurts took over the game, carried the offense and threw for 152 yards with 62 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.

Hurts was less impressive in Week 2, recording just 101 passing yards—though he did run for another score.

It's worth noting that Philly is dealing with the transition from Kellen Moore to Kevin Patullo at offensive coordinator. However, Hurts' numbers aren't great, and that's surprising, given how wonderful the Eagles' supporting cast is.

As previously noted, people to pay attention to what quarterbacks are working with, and Hurts has a stellar offensive line and legitimate stars in Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith. In the past, this has even led to some analysts viewing Hurts as an overrated quarterback.

Hurts is a difference-maker who has all the skills to pull Philadelphia back into the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, he's going to have a hard time shaking the (inaccurate) perception that he's merely a point guard for one of the most talented offenses in football.

Verdict: Sell

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/George Walker IV

Rams QB Matthew Stafford

Odds: +3000

Entering the season, there were questions about whether Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (back) would even be healthy enough to compete at a high level early in the year. So far, he's answered those questions emphatically.

Stafford is completing a career-best 71 percent of his passes, has a 107.1 QB rating and has thrown for 543 yards and three scores. Most importantly, he has the Rams off to a 2-0 start.

If the Rams move to 3-0 this week, expect Stafford to become an even bigger favorite. Los Angeles is set to visit the Eagles less than a year after nearly knocking them off in the playoffs. If Stafford has another great game and beats the defending champs on the road, his MVP buzz will grow.

Everyone loves a good story in the NFL, and Stafford might just have an opportunity to spin a great one. Despite having just two Pro Bowls on his resume, the 37-year-old has long been considered one of the top quarterbacks in the game. Leading Los Angeles to a No. 1 seed at this stage in his career might be enough to win Stafford a de facto "lifetime achievement" MVP, if his statistics are impressive enough.

Verdict: Buy

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Matt Patterson

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott

Odds: +3500

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott didn't have the best numbers in the season-opener, but he played extremely well. If not for some uncharacteristic and untimely drop by CeeDee Lamb after a weather-related delay, Dallas might be undefeated.

Prescott was impressive in last week's overtime victory over the New York Giants, throwing for 361 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

The 32-year-old's raw numbers (549 yards, 2 TDs, 88.8 QB rating) through two weeks aren't overly impressive. Considering he's coming off a campaign ended by injury, however, he's had a strong start to the season.

If Prescott continues to gel with new receiver George Pickens and grows under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer, he'll have a great chance to put up MVP-caliber numbers. Dallas' lackluster defense will require them if the Cowboys are going to win with any consistency.

Of course, it's that defense, no longer led by Parsons, that could ultimately doom the Cowboys chances of a deep run. If Prescott can somehow carry Dallas to an NFC East title with that defense in tow—which is a big if—he could be your next MVP.

Verdict: Buy

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