CFP Playoff Bracket, Scenarios and Bowl Projections After 2025-26 Week 7 AP Rankings

The Week 7 AP Poll featured one of the more significant sets of movement of the 2025 college football season.

Thirteen teams moved up multiple positions due to the losses suffered by the Penn State Nittany Lions and Texas Longhorns.

Penn State and Texas, both of whom were ranked in the preseason top 10, were knocked completely out of the Top 25.

The removals of Penn State and Texas, plus the further decline of the Florida State Seminoles, opened up College Football Playoff possibilities for more programs.

Additionally, the Group of Five playoff berth fight moved into focus with the Memphis Tigers and South Florida Bulls jumping into the bottom half of the poll.

Penn State, Texas Drop Out of AP Top 25, CFB Playoff Contention

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Penn State and Texas were both expected to be in the 12-team field when the preseason polls came out.

After Week 6, the Nittany Lions and Longhorns have bleak outlooks to even be in the CFB Playoff conversation.

Texas and Penn State dropped out of the AP Top 25. They are the second and third teams in the receiving votes column.

The pair of departures from the Top 25 opened up chances for other programs in the middle of the poll.

For example, there's a better chance for a second ACC team to make the playoff now that the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are up to No. 13.

Seven of the top 12 teams reside in the SEC, but a few of those sides will drop out over the next few weeks, which means the teams ranked from Nos. 13-20 are in good spots to pounce.

Notre Dame Climbs Back up to No. 16

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The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have gone from counted out after two weeks to No. 16 in the AP poll.

Notre Dame moved up five spots in Sunday's AP poll after a win over the Boise State Broncos.

There's a real possibility that Notre Dame finishes 10-2, which would then put it in position to make the 12-team field, especially if the SEC's top programs cannibalize themselves.

Marcus Freeman's team doesn't have the opportunity to earn a quality win with no Top 25 teams on its remaining schedule, but it'll be hard to keep the Irish out of the top 12 at 10-2 with losses to the Miami Hurricanes and Texas A&M Aggies, two current top-five teams.

Group of Five Race Heats Up

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The Memphis Tigers and South Florida Bulls entered the Top 25 at Nos. 23 and 24.

They are the leading contenders to land the Group of Five playoff berth at the moment.

USF stole the early-season headlines with wins over Boise State and Florida. Its only current loss is to Miami.

Memphis started 6-0 and it gets USF at home in two weeks in a game that could decide the G5 playoff picture.

The North Texas Mean Green, who received votes in the AP poll, host USF in Week 7. A North Texas win would catapult it into the playoff mix.

The UNLV Rebels are the leading candidate from the Mountain West now that Boise State suffered two defeats.

If UNLV wins in Boise in two weeks, the Rebels will have an elevated role in the playoff discussion.