1 Dark-Horse MLB Free-Agency Suitor for Top 25 Stars Available
Corbin Burnes to the Diamondbacks, Luis Severino to the Athletics and Yusei Kikuchi to the Angels ranked among the most surprising landing spots for top-tier free agents this past Major League Baseball offseason.
With another hot stove season fast approaching, who are the dark horses to sign this year's biggest names available?
Less than a month ago, B/R's Joel Reuter put together a Big Board of the top 25 free agents in this year's class. Rather than starting over from scratch before likely ending up with at least 23 of those same players anyway, we're just going to use his ranking* and try to find unlikely-but-plausible homes for those players.
For each player, we'll first posit a "Logical Landing Spot." That this says neither "most logical" nor "likeliest" is quite intentional. It's merely one of the options that wouldn't be all that surprising, and we'll end up dedicating entire 'landing spots' articles to a lot of these top free agents by the time the signing window opens in early November.
But you're here for the "Dark Horse" picks, which are largely cries of desperation for those franchises to actually spend money for a change.
*With one exception, which we'll note when we get to it at No. 13.
25. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/DH/OF, San Diego Padres
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Spotrac's Market Value: 2 years, $22.9M
Season Stats: .281/.366/.437, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 2.4 bWAR
After a brutal run from 2019-22 with the Royals, Ryan O'Hearn had a third consecutive respectable season, now with an overall OPS+ of 122 dating back to the beginning of 2023. While he can play first base or right field, he never has made more than 95 appearances in the field in a single season, and that's unlikely to change now he's 32. But any team without a full-time designated hitter may be looking to acquire his left-handed bat.
Logical Landing Spot: San Diego Padres
With Luis Arraez likely on his way out the door, O'Hearn re-signing with the Padres with plans to have him split the 1B and DH duties with Gavin Sheets makes a lot of sense.
Dark Horse: Milwaukee Brewers
Less of a dark horse and more a team that prefers not to spend money, the Brewers are going to lose Rhys Hoskins this offseason, and the Andrew Vaughn who had a 1.051 OPS through his first 29 games in Milwaukee was nowhere to be found over the final six weeks of the regular season. Doing something at first base this offseason is just about a must.
24. Tyler Rogers, RHP, New York Mets
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Spotrac's Market Value: 2 years, $22.7M
Season Stats: 77.1 IP, 4-6, 32 holds, 1.98 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 2.4 bWAR
Everyone's favorite submariner, the late-blooming Tyler Rogers will hit free agency for the first time in his career, turning 35 this December. He made an MLB-high 81 appearances this season, and has now been summoned from the bullpen 30 more times than the next-closest pitcher, dating back to 2020. He's not a strikeout guy, but he's durable and reliable.
Logical Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
"Durable" and "reliable" are two words I wouldn't dream of using to describe the Dodgers bullpen in 2025, so it's easy to see why they might make this setup man one of their top priorities this winter.
Dark Horse: Athletics
One of the benefits of Rogers' unique delivery is inducing a lot of ground balls and keeping home runs to a minimum. And for what is expected to be two more years of playing home games in a launching pad in Sacramento—only Dodger Stadium (254) produced more home runs in 2025 than Sutter Health Park's 230—Rogers might be most valuable to the A's.
23. Merrill Kelly, RHP, Texas Rangers
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Spotrac's Market Value: 1 year, $15.8M
Season Stats: 184.0 IP, 12-9, 3.52 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.9 bWAR
Merrill Kelly was even more of a late bloomer than Tyler Rogers, not making his MLB debut until he was already 30. So, here he is, days away from turning 37 and hitting free agency as an experienced player for the first time in his career. Still, there figure to be quite a few teams clamoring to add Kelly on a short-term deal, in light of his 3.47 ERA over the past four years.
Logical Landing Spot: San Diego Padres
Even if they're planning on trying their luck with stretching Mason Miller back out to a starting role in 2026, the Padres are going to be in the market for at least one starting pitcher this offseason—and preferably on a one- or two-year deal, given the sheer volume of payroll they've already committed to for 2027 and beyond.
Dark Horse: Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh signed Andrew Heaney this past winter, Martín Pérez the previous year, Rich Hill in the 2022-23 offseason and Jose Quintana the year before that. Kelly might be out of their price range, a cut above where those former Pirates were at in their careers when they signed those deals. But getting a veteran starting pitcher on an affordable, one-year deal is something this team tries to do every winter.
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22. Harrison Bader, CF, Philadelphia Phillies
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Spotrac's Market Value: 2 years, $20.1M
Season Stats: .277/.347/.449, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 11 SB, 4.2 bWAR
The fourth consecutive player on this list who was traded a few months ago, Harrison Bader was a godsend for the Phillies, batting north of .300 and playing great defense in center field while turning what was a position of weakness into a legitimate strength. And for the second consecutive year, he missed fewer than 20 games, distancing himself from the stigma that he can't seem to stay healthy.
Logical Landing Spot: Philadelphia Phillies
Mutual options almost never get exercised, so we're not expecting him back in Philadelphia on that $10 million clause in his current contract. Still, Bader re-signing with the Phillies is a strong possibility, unless they're all-in on Justin Crawford as the regular center fielder as a rookie.
Dark Horse: Cleveland Guardians
The fit is readily apparent, as Steven Kwan was the only Guardians outfielder who amounted to anything in 2025. But the idea of this franchise winning a bidding war for a player fresh off the best season of his career is almost incomprehensible. Settling on a "maybe he'll bounce back" flyer for someone like Cedric Mullins is much more Cleveland's speed.
21. J.T. Realmuto, C, Philadelphia Phillies
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Spotrac's Market Value: 2 years, $25.9M
Season Stats: .257/.315/.384, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 8 SB, 2.6 bWAR
Catchers who provide real value into their age-35 season and beyond are pretty rare. There was Yadier Molina for a while, and Sal Perez is still trucking along, eclipsing 300 career home runs in mid-September. But they are the exceptions to the rule, J.T. Realmuto turns 35 in March and he already posted a sub-100 OPS+ this season for the first time since 2015. Should be interesting to see who is most willing to bet he can get back to producing like he did from ages 26 to 31.
Logical Landing Spot: Philadelphia Phillies
Unless the Royals decline their $13.5 million club option on Perez, Realmuto's current employer is the only one that isn't already slated to get its primary catcher back again in 2026. So long as he's willing to take a sizable pay cut from what was a $23.875 million salary in each of the past four seasons, he'll probably stay with the Phillies.
Dark Horse: Minnesota Twins
Might be reluctant to invest in a catcher after the way Christian Vázquez's three-year deal blew up in their face, and they might be reluctant to invest in anything after the fire sale they put together ahead of the trade deadline. But pairing Realmuto with Ryan Jeffers would give them one of the better backstop tandems.
20. Robert Suarez, RHP, San Diego Padres
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Spotrac's Market Value: 4 years, $67.3M
Season Stats: 69.2 IP, 4-6, 40 saves, 2.97 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 2.3 bWAR
With a bit of help from Emmanuel Clase's suspension and Ryan Helsley getting traded out of a closer role, Robert Suarez's 76 saves since the beginning of 2024 ranks best in the majors. He has an option to remain in San Diego for another two seasons at $8 million apiece, but accepting that deal would mean leaving an awful lot of money on the table. Even though he'll turn 35 in March, a three-year or even four-year deal could be in the cards.
Logical Landing Spot: Texas Rangers
Despite the third-best run differential in the American League, the Rangers only went 81-81. And, well, that'll happen when you have 29 blown saves and never had a single reliever get to 10 successful conversions. We repeatedly implored them to sign a legitimate closer last offseason. They didn't, and they learned the hard way.
Dark Horse: Baltimore Orioles
With Félix Bautista likely out for all of 2026, Baltimore's closer situation is a great big question mark once again. The O's are a strong candidate to sign one of the many closers on the open market this winter, but it's more likely to be one of the one-year solutions like Kenley Jansen. Maybe they go whole hog for Suarez, though.
19. Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Seattle Mariners
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Spotrac's Market Value: 2 years, $29.9M
Season Stats: .228/.298/.526, 49 HR, 118 RBI, 3.6 bWAR
Lou Gehrig. Harmon Killebrew. Eugenio Suárez. Those are the only players in MLB history with multiple seasons of exactly 49 home runs. Geno didn't hit anywhere near as well after the trade deadline with the Mariners. Yet, since the beginning of 2018, the only players to homer more times than Suárez's 261 are Aaron Judge (312), Kyle Schwarber (294), Shohei Ohtani (280), Matt Olson (264) and Pete Alonso (264).
Logical Landing Spot: Detroit Tigers
A right-handed slugger at third base would be a major addition for the Tigers. Ponying up the dough for Alex Bregman probably isn't feasible, but two years of Suárez for $30 million total is surely doable.
Dark Horse: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Buccos desperately need more home runs to support what already could be a postseason-caliber pitching staff. And while Suárez fell barely shy of 50 home runs, Pirates third basemen collectively managed just six in 2025. It's a signing that could significantly raise Pittsburgh's ceiling in 2026, but will it actually spend money on a multi-year deal for a change?
18. Josh Naylor, 1B, Seattle Mariners
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Spotrac's Market Value: 3 years, $45.4M
Season Stats: .295/.353/.462, 20 HR, 92 RBI, 30 SB, 3.1 bWAR
When healthy, Josh Naylor always had been a solid hitter. From 2022-24, he batted .267 with 68 home runs, one of 26 mostly elite players north of both .265 and 65, respectively. But he also unexpectedly became fleet of foot this year, stealing 19 bases over the final two months with the Mariners. Still just 28 years old and with a newfound skill, he could wind up being much more highly coveted than this market value suggests.
Logical Landing Spot: Seattle Mariners
Both New York teams, Boston, San Diego and Texas could all be great fits for Naylor, but staying put makes a lot of sense, too. First base has been such a mess for Seattle for such a long time that two months of Naylor was easily one of their best situations there since the mid-2000s days of Richie Sexson. Letting him walk would feel like a big mistake.
Dark Horse: Washington Nationals
They definitely need a first baseman, but they also need a complete makeover of the pitching staff before they can reasonably be expected to contend again. Would be a surprise if this is where the Nationals decide to make a significant investment for the first time since re-upping with Stephen Strasburg six years ago, but maybe they decide to swoop in for Naylor while others are fighting over Pete Alonso.
17. Luis Arraez, 1B/2B, San Diego Padres
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Spotrac's Market Value: 5 years, $70.5M
Season Stats: .292/.327/.392, 8 HR, 61 RBI, 11 SB, 1.3 bWAR
Luis Arraez's three-year streak of batting titles came to an end this season, settling for the National League's fourth-best batting average in 2025. He did still lead the league with 181 hits, though, bringing his total since the beginning of 2022 to an MLB-best 757—30 more than his closest challenger. But he doesn't hit for power. He's also a poor defender and a mediocre baserunner, hence the nothing special WAR in spite of all those base hits.
Logical Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants
Four different Giants played in at least a dozen games at second base in 2025. They collectively hit .217 and were just about the definition of replacement level. And while a lot of power hitters might prefer to avoid signing on for home games at Oracle Park, those cavernous confines would be just fine for Arraez's all-fields BABIP approach.
Dark Horse: Los Angeles Angels
They have what they hope are building blocks in 23-year-olds Nolan Schanuel and Christian Moore at first and second base, respectively. But they also ranked dead-last in the majors in batting average in 2025, inexplicably finishing 25th in runs scored while fourth in total home runs. Bringing in Arraez to smack some singles could be a fantastic move.
16. Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Spotrac's Market Value: 4 years, $74.8M
Season Stats: 192.0 IP, 13-15, 4.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.1 bWAR
The big question here is whether Zac Gallen's disappointing 2025 campaign was bad enough to undo the 3.29 ERA he had in his career prior to this season. On the plus side, he stayed healthy and was much better in his final 11 starts (3.32 ERA) than he was in the first 22 (5.60 ERA). That might be enough for him to end up getting something more like six years for $150 million this winter.
Logical Landing Spot: Houston Astros
Re-signing Framber Valdez to a possible $200 million contract probably isn't a realistic option for Houston. But if the Astros can buy low on Gallen after a tough season, they had better do so, because that rotation gets rough in a hurry after Hunter Brown. If nothing else, they need Gallen just for the reliable 180-plus innings per year he can give them.
Dark Horse: St. Louis Cardinals
Truly, we don't know what to expect out of St. Louis this winter. If the Cardinals are trying to build a contender in 2026, though, they need at least one more quality starting pitcher. And locking in Gallen for a few years now would give them an ace to lean on if and when they decline Sonny Gray's $30 million option for 2027.
15. Gleyber Torres, 2B, Detroit Tigers
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Spotrac's Market Value: 4 years, $55.9M
Season Stats: .256/.358/.387, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 2.9 bWAR
Gleyber Torres wanted a big payday last winter, but settled for a one-year, "prove it" deal. Though he wilted in the second half and never remotely threatened to match his 38 HR campaign from 2019, he was an All-Star whose .812 OPS at the All-Star break ranked best among qualified second basemen. A seven-year, nine-figure contract isn't going to happen, but he should get a lucrative offer for three or four years.
Logical Landing Spot: San Diego Padres
With Luis Arraez on his way out, the Dads need either a first or second baseman to pair with Jake Cronenworth for the foreseeable future. And after five consecutive seasons batting north of .255, Torres isn't the worst option out there for replacing a multiple-time batting champ.
Dark Horse: Cincinnati Reds
They do need to improve their offense. But do the Reds still view Matt McLain as the long-term answer at second base? And given how disastrously the Jeimer Candelario and Mike Moustakas contracts went in recent years, are they willing to touch another $15 million-ish infielder with a 10-foot pole?
14. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
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Spotrac's Market Value: 2 years, $34.2M
Season Stats: 64.2 IP, 7-2, 3.20 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 1.3 bWAR
Since the beginning of 2020, Brandon Woodruff has a 2.81 ERA. Among the 180 pitchers to log at least 350 innings across those six seasons, only Jacob deGrom (2.45) has a lower ERA. But since the beginning of 2023, Woodruff has only made 23 appearances, yet again entering this October on the IL. He's great when healthy, but how often will he be?
Logical Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
"Might make 15 starts" has become the Dodgers' sweet spot, as aside from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, their team leaders in innings pitched in 2025 were Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Tyler Glasnow. Even though they still have a surplus of quality options in their rotation, they could target "Woody" as their replacement for "Kersh."
Dark Horse: Colorado Rockies
Free-agent pitchers tend to avoid Coors Field like the plague. But if Woodruff's market is seriously $17 million per year for two seasons as Spotrac projects, the Rockies could easily blow him away with a $27 million per year for four seasons sort of offer, having the soon-to-be 33-year-old replace Germán Márquez—and hopefully be healthier than Kris Bryant has been.
13. Shane Bieber, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
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Spotrac's Market Value: 6 years, $145.6M
Season Stats: 40.1 IP, 4-2, 3.57 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 0.7 bWAR
As noted, this is where we deviate from Joel's list. He had Trevor Story at No. 13, back before we knew Boston could void his opt out by locking in his club option for 2028. And Joel didn't have Shane Bieber in the top 25, back when he had made just four starts with a 4.30 ERA. It's an easy enough swap, though, with Bieber's surgically repaired UCL looking good and likely to entice the subset of teams that would like to add a top-of-the-rotation starter without paying the going rate for Framber Valdez.
Logical Landing Spot: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto took a chance on Bieber at the trade deadline, and maybe it will get a long-term reward for it. Don't bet on him exercising his $16 million player option for 2026, though. If the Blue Jays manage to retain him, they'll be paying much more than that.
Dark Horse: Los Angeles Angels
Spending big on pitching isn't typically the Angels' M.O. After 11 straight years of missing the playoffs, though, it's long past time to switch things up. They did invest $63 million in Yusei Kikuchi last winter, and they ought to be motivated to bring in this former ace who was born and raised not far from Angel Stadium.
12. Edwin Diaz, RHP, New York Mets
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Spotrac's Market Value: 4 years, $73.4M
Season Stats: 66.1 IP, 6-3, 28 SV, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 13.3 K/9, 3.0 bWAR
While Pete Alonso said shortly after the Mets were eliminated that he will be declining his player option for 2026, Edwin Díaz still has not indicated whether he plans to opt out of the two years and $38 million remaining on his contract. However, after a bounce-back season in which he was arguably the most dominant closer in all of baseball, it's hard to imagine he wouldn't capitalize by re-entering free agency. (If he does opt out, the Mets will extend him a $22 million qualifying offer, which he would surely also decline.)
Logical Landing Spot: Toronto Blue Jays
Last winter, Toronto invested $33 million in finding out whether Jeff Hoffman could cut the mustard as a full-time closer. Let's just say they're still searching for a sure-fire solution in the ninth inning. Should they acquire Díaz, they could hope for the best with Hoffman as a somewhat expensive set-up man for the next two years.
Dark Horse: Washington Nationals
Investing $70 million-$80 million in a closer is typically a "final piece of the puzzle" sort of move, and the Nats haven't even finished assembling the border of their championship puzzle, let alone 98 percent of it. But after two decades of a lot of mediocrity and antacids in the ninth inning, maybe it could be an initial big step for Washington.
11. Trent Grisham, OF, New York Yankees
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Spotrac's Market Value: 4 years, $48.2M
Season Stats: .235/.348/.464, 34 HR, 74 RBI, 3.5 bWAR
Nothing like using your walk year to decimate your previous career high for home runs in a season. Trent Grisham's pre-2025 max was 17 dingers in 2022, but he went for 34 while serving as the Yankees' primary leadoff hitter. What a 180 from almost being out of a job altogether after three consecutive years batting below the Mendoza line.
Logical Landing Spot: Philadelphia Phillies
Re-signing Harrison Bader would probably be their preference. Should they reach an impasse in those negotiations, though, pivoting to Grisham could be the move. At any rate, the lefty's pull-heavy approach to slugging would play well at Citizens Bank Park.
Dark Horse: Kansas City Royals
Definitely not a dark horse as far as team needs are concerned. Kansas City had the worst outfield in the majors in 2025, per FanGraphs. But "Royals" and "big spenders" haven't often been synonymous over the years. It's unlikely they make a hefty investment in a guy who may have already peaked and whose career home run count would plummet from 104 to 76 if all his balls had been hit at Kauffman Stadium. However, KC doing something this winter to take advantage of this window before it closes is a must.
10. Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros
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Spotrac's Market Value: 6 years, $199.9M
Season Stats: 192.0 IP, 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.8 bWAR
Framber Valdez is a reliable workhorse. He has a 3.21 ERA since the beginning of 2022, during which time only Logan Webb (85) has made more quality starts than Valdez's 83 and only Sandy Alcantara (nine) has logged more complete games than Valdez's eight. He tossed a no-hitter in 2023 and has come close to several others. Though his final two months in Houston were rough, he's probably the most sure-fire ace in this class of free agents.
Logical Landing Spot: New York Mets
After more than holding its own during the 45-24 start to the season, New York's rotation logged an MLB-worst 15 quality starts from June 13 onward. Valdez should just show Steve Cohen this leaderboard where the Mets finished three QS behind the White Sox and even five behind the Colorado Rockies and just wait for the money to roll in.
Dark Horse: Minnesota Twins
While there's speculation they could trade away Joe Ryan and go all-in on the rebuild, what if they instead signed another former Astros star to put together one heck of a rotation headlined by Valdez, Ryan and Pablo López? Thanks to that fire sale, there's nothing on the 2026 payroll aside from $21.75 million to López, $15 million to Byron Buxton, the $10 million they retained in the Carlos Correa trade and a boatload of TBD (pre-)arbitration salaries. Theoretically, they should be able to afford it.
9. Michael King, RHP, San Diego Padres
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Spotrac's Market Value: 4 years, $91.9M
Season Stats: 73.1 IP, 5-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 1.2 bWAR
Michael King's market in free agency might be the most fascinating/unpredictable of them all. He has a 2.91 ERA since the beginning of 2022, slightly better than both Chris Sale (2.93) and Zack Wheeler (2.94). But he's already 30 years old and has only once logged at least 105 innings in a season, due to a combination of injuries and serving as a spot starter/bulk reliever until last season. Will anyone be able to justify paying him like an ace?
Logical Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants
The G-Men feel like the sweet spot for King's services: They definitely need some starting pitching, but they do have both Logan Webb and Robbie Ray to handle the top-of-the-rotation duties. King could slot in as their No. 3 starter, taking what was Justin Verlander's place in the 2025 mix.
Dark Horse: Milwaukee Brewers
With Brandon Woodruff and Jose Quintana likely to leave when their mutual options inevitably get declined by one party or the other, Milwaukee's 2026 rotation gets pretty young/questionable beyond Freddy Peralta—who will almost certainly be signing elsewhere next winter when he hits free agency. Throw King in that mix in between Peralta and Jacob Misiorowski, though, and let's pencil them in for yet another season of at least 92 wins.
8. Dylan Cease, RHP, San Diego Padres
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Spotrac's Market Value: 6 years, $158.5M
Season Stats: 168.0 IP, 8-12, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 1.1 bWAR
Dylan Cease struggled in 2025, finishing four games below .500 with a rough ERA. Or was he just terribly unlucky while adding a sinker to what is now a six-pitch arsenal? His xwOBA, hard-hit rate, fastball velocity and whiff rate were pretty much identical to his career norms, and his expected ERA of 3.46 suggests he's still worthy of a massive payday.
Logical Landing Spot: New York Mets
Whether they can/would sign both Cease and Framber Valdez is open to debate, but adding at least one ace-caliber arm this winter is just about non-negotiable after the rotation was most clearly to blame for their failure of a season.
Dark Horse: Chicago White Sox
There was no mandate to include all 30 teams in this exercise, but I thought it'd be fun to do—until I had to find a big move the White Sox would actually make. They're nowhere close to the "ready to spend big" point in their rebuild, but like the A's this past winter, maybe they feel like they need to make a significant investment to keep the MLBPA off their back. If so, a reunion with Cease would at least give them a much-needed veteran arm in the rotation.
7. Cody Bellinger, OF, New York Yankees
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Spotrac's Market Value: 6 years, $182.7M
Season Stats: .272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 13 SB, 5.0 bWAR
It's hard to believe Cody Bellinger only turned 30 this summer, but he has now had more really good seasons than stinkers in his career. No, he wasn't "2019 NL MVP good" this year, nor even "2017 NL ROY good." But with more hits, home runs and RBI than in any of the past five seasons, he is presumably* leaping back into free agency with more desirability than in previous winters.
*Bellinger has a $25 million player option with a $5 million buyout. It is a foregone conclusion this will be declined.
Logical Landing Spot: New York Yankees
Bellinger was just what the doctor ordered for the Yankees in their adjustment to life after Juan Soto. While he wasn't remotely as individually spectacular as Soto was in 2024, Belli was their second-most valuable player, without even accounting for his ability to play all three outfield spots to keep everyone fresh. They'll likely let Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham and Devin Williams walk while focusing all of their re-signing efforts on Bellinger.
Dark Horse: Arizona Diamondbacks
Calling Arizona a dark horse to sign one of the best outfielders on the market is maybe a bit much. They could use one and have also shown a drastically increased willingness to spend money over the past two years. If they're spending this type of coin, though, it's way more likely to be on fixing up the pitching staff than on improving an already solid lineup.
6. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
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Spotrac's Market Value: 8 years, $186.4M
Season Stats: .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 94 RBI, 3.4 bWAR
In four of the past five seasons, Bo Bichette was one of the best hitters in all of baseball, batting .301 and averaging 184 hits, 23 home runs and 91 RBI in those good years. Last year was a painful exception to that rule, but he was back with a vengeance in 2025, on pace for roughly 210 hits before injuring his knee in early September. His defense isn't great, to put it lightly, but a career OPS north of .800 will help prospective bidders overlook that peccadillo.
Logical Landing Spot: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is patiently waiting to find out whether Ha-Seong Kim will be back in 2026 on his $16 million player option. If he declines it, the Braves become a motivated suitor for Bichette. Even if Kim stays, though, Atlanta could be in the mix for Bichette after back-to-back seasons of experiencing the perils of having just no positional depth worth mentioning.
Dark Horse: Cleveland Guardians
The Guards haven't even had an Opening Day payroll of $100 million since 2019, so the thought of them investing nearly $200 million in a single player is borderline madness. But in a do-or-die game against the Tigers, they started three players who hit .220 this season, a catcher who hit .195 and a rookie who made his MLB debut two days prior. If they're ever going to spend for anything, it better be hits.
5. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
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Spotrac's Market Value: 6 years, $176.6M
Season Stats: .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 126 RBI, 3.4 bWAR
Well, here we go again. Pete Alonso was one of the last free agents to sign this past winter, inking his short-term deal with the Mets just a couple of days before Alex Bregman's similarly-structured contract with Boston. And while he did have a considerably more productive year at the dish in 2025 than in 2024, he's also now a year older and could be headed for another lengthy quest to fetch anything close to what Spotrac says he's worth.
Logical Landing Spot: New York
Whether it's re-signing with the Mets or jumping ship to the Yankees, it's likely the Polar Bear will remain in one of NYC's boroughs for 2026 and beyond. Staying in Citi Field would be better for his swing, but we'll see which one is more desperate to shore up its first base situation.
Dark Horse: Cincinnati Reds
Speaking of "better for his swing," Baseball Savant suggests Alonso would have 315 home runs if all of his ABs had taken place at Great American Ball Park. That's 27 more than the next closest venue (Coors Field, naturally) and 51 more than he has actually hit in his career. And fresh off a season in which no one on the team hit more than 22 dingers, maybe their desperation to sign a slugger is at an all-time high.
4. Kyle Schwarber, DH, Philadelphia Phillies
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Spotrac's Market Value: 4 years, $99.6M
Season Stats: .240/.365/.563, 56 HR, 132 RBI, 10 SB, 4.7 bWAR
In his four seasons with the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber amassed 187 home runs, 426 walks and 809 strikeouts, ranking second, third and first in the majors, respectively, for a "three true outcomes" percentage of 50.7. The 56 homers in 2025 ensured there will be a feverish market for the slugger who turns 33 in March and virtually never plays the field anymore. Mash like Schwarber does, though, and who needs a glove?
Logical Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs
You probably already know Philadelphia re-signing Schwarber is the most likely outcome here. But if the Cubs fail to re-sign Kyle Tucker, going all-in on bringing Schwarber back home could be quite the back-up plan. Maybe they could even put him back at catcher once for old times' sake.
Dark Horse: Miami Marlins
Since Giancarlo Stanton's stupendous 59-HR run through 2017, the Marlins have only had one player reach 30 in a single season—Jorge Soler's 36 in 2023 contributing significantly to their surprising postseason appearance. They have a rotation that could do legitimate damage, as well as a couple of valuable bats, but a cudgel like Schwarber's could be a real game-changer.
3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Boston Red Sox
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Spotrac's Market Value: 4 years, $100M
Season Stats: .273/.360/.462, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 3.5 bWAR
The race for AL MVP eventually became a heated debate between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. But before Alex Bregman suffered that quad strain in late May that kept him out of action for nearly two months, he was one of the top challengers to Judge, batting .314 and on pace for about 40 home runs and 120 RBI. Clearly, he didn't get there, but he still ended up with his best OPS since almost winning AL MVP in 2019.
Logical Landing Spot: Boston Red Sox
When the Red Sox originally signed Bregman to that three-year deal with opt-outs available after each of the first two years, Rafael Devers was still their primary third baseman and we expected Breggy to spend one year at second base before re-entering the market. Well, things have changed ever so slightly. Now, if they don't bring Bregman back, it's looking like "Marcelo Mayer or bust" at third base, even though he's recovering from a wrist surgery and almost exclusively played shortstop until this season.
Dark Horse: Los Angeles Angels
What's the record for money spent on third basemen in a single season? The Halos have one more year of Anthony Rendon's crippling $38.6 million salary. But he didn't play in 2025, and the two guys who spent the most time at their hot corner—Yoán Moncada and Luis Rengifo—are both free agents. Unless they're just embracing an 11th consecutive sub-.500 season, doing something at third base is kind of a must.
2. Ranger Suarez, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Spotrac's Market Value: 6 years, $161.6M
Season Stats: 157.1 IP, 12-8, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 4.7 bWAR
Most coveted free-agent pitcher feels a bit aggressive for Ranger Suárez, considering he has never reached 160 innings pitched in a season. However, when Joel was putting together the big board, Suárez had a 0.88 ERA and 11.4 K/9 over his previous five starts—this after he had a run of 10 consecutive quality starts with a cumulative 1.19 ERA in May and June. He was also one of the top candidates for NL Cy Young midway through last year, boasting a 1.83 ERA through his first 16 starts. When this southpaw gets into a groove, there aren't many better.
Logical Landing Spot: Toronto Blue Jays
They're losing Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber this winter, and any dreams of Alek Manoah resurfacing as a star in 2026 were dashed when he was DFA'd late in the regular season. They're also slated to lose Kevin Gausman and possibly José Berríos next offseason, so they are definitely in the market for long-term potential aces north of the border.
Dark Horse: Athletics
We mentioned it previously in regard to Tyler Rogers as an A's candidate, but this team figures to be on the prowl for arms that can keep the ball in the yard, as that is a major challenge at Sutter Health Park. And with a 0.78 HR/9 over the past half-decade, Suárez is one of the best in that department.
1. Kyle Tucker, OF, Chicago Cubs
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Spotrac's Market Value: 10 years, $401.8M
Season Stats: .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 25 SB, 4.5 bWAR
When the talk of Kyle Tucker possibly fetching a $400 million or even a $600 million contract first started gaining steam, it went hand-in-hand with NL MVP conversations. From July 1 onward, though, he was nowhere near the same force and ended up missing a few weeks of action in September—this after he missed more than half of last season after fouling a ball off his shin. He's still clearly the alpha in this year's class of free agents, turning 29 this January and ranking 10th in fWAR among hitters since the beginning of 2021, even with about 140 games missed. We'll see if he sniffs half-a-billion dollars, though.
Logical Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
Staying with the Cubs is also a strong possibility, as they did give up quite a package to acquire him in hopes of it being for more than just one season. But the Dodgers need a corner outfielder and are inherently the logical landing spot any time you're talking about paying someone a lot of money for a long time.
Dark Horse: Tampa Bay Rays
The polar opposite of the Dodgers, the Rays are ever the unlikely candidate to spend aggressively. But The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal speculated in July that Tucker—born and raised in Tampa—could be the major splash the Patrick Zalupski-led new ownership tries to make, on par with when Steve Cohen traded for Francisco Lindor and gave him a $341 million contract within six months of buying the Mets. And after a 2025 season in which Rays outfielders hit fewer home runs than every other team, Tucker would certainly fill a need.
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