Setting Time Clocks on the NBA's Biggest Rebuilding Projects
Patience is a key ingredient for every successful NBA rebuild, but it's often the most difficult to maintain.
There's only so much losing a fanbase can endure before it needs a glimpse of that proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. Even the process-trusting Philadelphia 76ers faithful would like to reap more tangible rewards from general manager Sam Hinkie's ever-growing asset collection.
"We have Trusted The Process. We've enjoyed this franchise way more than we've had any right to," wrote Liberty Ballers' Michael Levin. "We know that it isn't about results, so long as the methodology is sound. We know this. But also...results would be pretty tight."
These remodeling efforts need a timeline. It could be one year—or maybe seven. The important thing is that it's not indefinite.
For all of the success-starved fans out there, we're here to start the countdown to competitiveness. By examining current personnel, future assets and external conditions (conference affiliation, free-agent buying power, stability of front office and coaching staffs, etc.), we have pinned down the target date for the league's biggest rebuilders to contend for a playoff spot.
Two notes before we get started:
To simplify this process, the biggest rebuilding clubs have been defined by this: a winning percentage below .400 in 2014-15. If you're losing more than 60 percent of your games, your formula is either flawed or not yet finished. Second, our target postseason dates are when those clubs can reasonably expect to stay in this race—not necessarily when they'll crack the playoff field.
With those parameters in place, let's start circling some calendar dates.
Denver Nuggets
1 of 8
2014-15 Record: 30-52
Last Playoff Appearance: 2012-13
Realistic Postseason Target: 2017-18
The Denver Nuggets engineered a mini-demolition last season. They thinned out their ranks by shipping out Timofey Mozgov, Arron Afflalo and JaVale McGee, but they stopped short of a full-on fire sale.
That hesitation to cut the cord isn't going to help. This roster might need more reshuffling.
The Nuggets traded away troubled point guard Ty Lawson on Monday, and while the return package wasn't great, the real reward lies in the now-unblocked path for rookie Emmanuel Mudiay. The 19-year-old, selected seventh overall after spending last season in China, may already hold centerpiece status in Denver.
"He's an athletic beast with the potential to develop into an oversized Russell Westbrook or John Wall," Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb wrote. "If his shooting ability catches up to the rest of his skills, Mudiay could emerge as one of the league's elite floor generals. ... One way or another, he's set to become this team's leader before too long."
Playing in the gauntlet that is the Western Conference, the Nuggets need to take the long view of their future. It's hard to envision a team giving major minutes to Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari securing a playoff berth. One constructed around Mudiay, Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Harris, Joffrey Lauvergne and Nikola Jokic has the chance to become something greater.
Once new coach Mike Malone implements his system, the Nuggets should use next season to align their roster with his strengths. That makes 2016-17 a year of player development and chemistry building; then the following season becomes their chance to make legitimate noise in the Wild West.
Detroit Pistons
2 of 8
2014-15 Record: 32-50
Last Playoff Appearance: 2008-09
Realistic Postseason Target: 2016-17
The Detroit Pistons are slowly fitting into the vision of coach/president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy.
Potential cornerstone center Andre Drummond just wrapped the best season of his career (13.8 points, 13.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks). The floor spacing should be better for an offense that ranked 17th in three-point percentage (34.4). And the small forward spot should no longer be the dead zone it was in 2014-15 (12.7 points per game, 29th overall, per HoopsStats.com).
The paint-clogging interior skills of Greg Monroe have been replaced by Ersan Ilyasova's stretch shooting ability (career 37.0 three-point percentage). Veteran Marcus Morris (acquired from the Phoenix Suns) and No. 8 pick Stanley Johnson give the Pistons options at the 3. Drummond now has a reliable backup in Aron Baynes, and Detroit has locked down explosive point guard Reggie Jackson for the next five seasons.
The Pistons improved, but so did the bottom half of the East's playoff bracket. While several conference foes found impact pieces, none of Detroit's additions obviously pushed it ahead of the pack.
"When the best thing anyone can say about your acquisitions is that they've improved depth or increased competition, it's basically an admission that mediocrity remains the highest ceiling," wrote Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press.
Van Gundy is still putting his fingerprints on this franchise, and the primary building blocks could use more polish. The Pistons will make a mini-leap next season, but it might take another one after that to crash the playoff party.
Los Angeles Lakers
3 of 8
2014-15 Record: 21-61
Last Playoff Appearance: 2012-13
Realistic Postseason Target: 2017-18
The Los Angeles Lakers are temporarily trapped. While they have a few intriguing prospects in their ranks, they also have just enough veteran talent around to block the youngsters' path to playing time.
At 36 years old (37 in August), Kobe Bryant isn't carrying the Purple and Gold back to the playoffs. He's only made 41 appearances over the past two seasons combined while dealing with a torn Achilles, a fractured tibia and a torn rotator cuff. When he has suited up, he's struggled to the tune of 37.8 percent shooting (28.5 from three) and 4.2 turnovers per 36 minutes.
But barring injury, Bryant is still going to play a significant role in head coach Byron Scott's offense. Reigning Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams, the proud owner of a new three-year $21 million pact, also is unlikely to starve for shots. Roy Hibbert and Brandon Bass should also see their fair share of touches.
The Lakers should be better than last season, but modest short-term improvement might come at the expense of long-term development.
D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson all need an abundance of reps because they're the likely key contributors of L.A.'s next playoff participant. But the Lakers could keep them on a short leash.
"Randle and Russell enter the 2015-16 season facing a tricky purgatory: The next era of Lakers basketball, their era, is still a hypothetical out there on the horizon rather than a training camp reality," wrote Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver.
By 2017-18, Randle and Russell will have each had two big league seasons to find their footing. Ideally, the pair looks attractive enough then to lure in the high-level free agents the Lakers have been unable to land these past few offseasons.
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Minnesota Timberwolves
4 of 8
2014-15 Record: 16-66
Last Playoff Appearance: 2003-04
Realistic Postseason Target: 2017-18
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been seemingly rebuilding for a decade-plus. It's still going to take some time to get out of that phase, but a light is undeniably forming at the end of the tunnel.
Between last summer's Kevin Love trade and this one's lottery jackpot, the Wolves have each of the league's past three No. 1 picks: Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. They also have a high-flying swingman in sophomore Zach LaVine, a skilled scorer in third-year guard Shabazz Muhammad and a two-way paint presence in third-year center Gorgui Dieng.
Ricky Rubio almost feels like an elder statesman with four seasons under his belt. But the prolific passer hasn't even celebrated his 25th birthday yet.
When the Timberpups break through, they could be a legitimate force. But that's still a few seasons down the road.
"We've got a nice young core," Wiggins said, per Jon Krawczynski of the Associated Press. "In the next couple years, we're going to be a serious team."
Minnesota's biggest key for snapping its playoff drought is seasoning. The talent is seemingly in place; it just needs several coats of polish. This time frame gives the young players three full seasons to find their rhythm and ample opportunity for the franchise to move some of its veterans (Kevin Martin, Nikola Pekovic) to new homes.
New York Knicks
5 of 8
2014-15 Record: 17-65
Last Playoff Appearance: 2012-13
Realistic Postseason Target: 2016-17
No, the New York Knicks didn't find their quick-fix superstar in 2015 free agency. But there wasn't a player on the market who could have transformed this 17-win mess into a full-fledged contender overnight. (Remember, LeBron James was a free agent in title alone.)
The Knicks realized they needed a better product to sell. The allure of the Big Apple market doesn't have nearly the same luster without a realistic shot at success.
So the Knicks quietly constructed a competitive roster. They might not have a playoff team just yet, but surrounding a healthy Carmelo Anthony with some serviceable veterans (Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo, Kyle O'Quinn) and intriguing wild cards (Kristaps Porzingis, Jerian Grant and, to a lesser extent, Derrick Williams) is an obvious step in the right direction.
New York should be competitive next season. As Knicks president of basketball operations Phil Jackson sees it, that's an important part of the process to re-establishing this as a destination franchise.
"We need to win, be a competitive team," Jackson said, per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. "I think we showed agents and players around the league a serious nature of what we're trying to accomplish. People who know basketball will recognize that, and we'll have people who want to come here."
The Eastern Conference looks deep enough to hold the Knicks out of the 2016 playoff picture, but a potentially doubled win total would help make New York's vision clearer. With a blend of proven players and prospects plus some financial flexibility for next summer's free-agent market, the Knicks have reasons to realistically shoot for the 2017 postseason.
Orlando Magic
6 of 8
2014-15 Record: 25-57
Last Playoff Appearance: 2011-12
Realistic Postseason Target: 2016-17
The Orlando Magic have done a masterful job finding their way through the post-Dwight Howard era.
They found a primary scorer during the 2012 four-team, 12-player exchange that sent Howard out of Orlando in center Nikola Vucevic. Over the past three drafts, they assembled their backcourt of the future (Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton), found a lockdown defender at forward (Aaron Gordon) and grabbed an explosive swingman (Mario Hezonja).
That's not quite a playoff core, but it's not everything Orlando has. The Magic also have 23-year-old scoring forward Tobias Harris, who has skills for the perimeter and enough size for the post. There's also 22-year-old sharpshooter Evan Fournier, who owns a career 38.0 three-point percentage and can create shots for himself and teammates off the dribble.
Orlando has supported its youth with a handful of established players. C.J. Watson, Channing Frye and Jason Smith have a combined 24 seasons of NBA experience, and each has multiple playoff appearances on his resume.
The Magic believe they are ready for the big stage.
"We want to win, and we want to be in the mix," general manager Rob Hennigan said, per Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. "It's time to turn the corner, and our guys know that."
The 2016 playoffs aren't an outlandish goal, but this team feels one season away from truly contending for a postseason spot. New coach Scott Skiles needs to get comfortable, and this rotation has a few redundancies that must be sorted out through either trades or a more defined pecking order.
Philadelphia 76ers
7 of 8
2014-15 Record: 18-64
Last Playoff Appearance: 2011-12
Realistic Postseason Target: ??
It's impossible to make any definitive claims about the Philadelphia 76ers' future when so much of their present is clouded by mystery.
Their long-term goal is to acquire enough star power to contend for multiple titles. Their short-term focus is on asset accumulation, which is both the fuel to tomorrow's endeavors and the reason today's forecast is such a nightmare to predict.
The Sixers have sat through 127 losses the past two seasons, patiently reaping the rewards of life in the NBA's basement. While that has opened the door to a few promising prospects, it has yet to deliver any certainty.
Their current hopes rest with four bigs—only one who has big league experience (Nerlens Noel). Joel Embiid lost his rookie year to an injured right foot and will likely miss the next one for the same reason. Dario Saric will stay overseas through at least next season. And Jahlil Okafor was just drafted in June.
That's essentially the extent of Philly's haul so far, and it's hard to tell how many of these players it even views as long-term keepers. The Sixers have a plan, but the blueprint doesn't have many details yet.
"Where are the Sixers going? They're either going nowhere at the speed of light, or moving toward being a championship team at the speed of evolution," wrote CBS Sports' Matt Moore. "At this rate, it may take generations for the Sixers to be contenders either way."
Whenever the Sixers turn the corner, they could climb the standings quickly. They have the trade chips to pull off something major if the right opportunity knocks. But it's anyone's guess when (or even if) that will happen.
Sacramento Kings
8 of 8
2014-15 Record: 29-53
Last Playoff Appearance: 2005-06
Realistic Postseason Target: 2016-17
The Sacramento Kings aren't searching for a superstar; they already have one.
If DeMarcus Cousins isn't the NBA's most skilled big man, he's keeping exclusive company at the top of that list. Last season, he became only the seventh player in league history (and first in more than a decade) to average at least 24 points, 12 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 blocks over the course of a season.
But that didn't stop Kings coach George Karl from reportedly lobbying for a Cousins trade, sources told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. While both parties remain in Sacramento, the Kings clearly have some turmoil at the top.
What's unclear, though, is how much they have behind their All-Star center. Rudy Gay has had a productive season-plus stay in Sacramento, but the jury's still out on third-year shooting guard Ben McLemore (and his 9.2 career player efficiency rating). Point guard Darren Collison had a decent debut for the Kings last season, but his playing time could be cut down with the Rajon Rondo acquisition.
The rest of the roster has been radically reworked. The Kings grabbed rim protector Willie Cauley-Stein with the sixth overall pick, then added another frontcourt body in free agency with Kosta Koufos. They also took a one-year flier on Rondo and signed as many shooters as they could (Marco Belinelli, James Anderson and Seth Curry—per Antonio Gonzalez of the Associated Press, via NBA.com).
The Kings have pieces, but they might not all fit the same puzzle. They'll need this season to assess their new personnel and figure out who works with Cousins. Assuming they find the right recipe, they should be able to make a spirited run at the 2017 playoffs.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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