.png?w=1280)
2025 NFL Week 4 Expert Picks
If two teams changed the complexion of your Week 3 betting outlook by returning blocked field goals for touchdowns, you're not alone, but that doesn't mean you change your strategy for Week 4.
Bleacher Report's expert panel, which includes analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski, along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, dusted themselves off after a wild week of finishes that pushed them below .500. Still, they managed to split even on lone-wolf picks at 2-2.
In Week 4, O'Donnell is the only lone wolf, and there's one unanimous pick. For context, our crew went 0-2 on clean sweep selections last week.
Fade the panel at your own peril; a bounce-back week is coming up.
Check out the expert standings against the spread, followed by our Week 4 picks.
ATS Standings
1. Knox: 25-23
2. Moton: 24-24
3. Sobleski: 23-25
T-4: Davenport: 22-26
T-4. Hanford: 22-26
6. Gagnon: 19-29
7. O'Donnell: 18-30
Lone-Wolf Picks: 7-4
Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Sept. 23, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-1)
1 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Saints Seahawks Football")
Davenport: Cardinals (+1.5)
The fact that both of these teams lost close games to the San Francisco 49ers' depleted squad sums up how I feel about them. Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold are 19th and 21st, respectively, in QBR this season. But short weeks tend to favor the home team, so ride with the Redbirds as a slight underdog.
Moton: Seahawks (-1.5)
The Arizona Cardinals beat the New Orleans Saints 20-13. Even if you give them a pass because Murray played through an illness in that outing, you can't excuse a poor Week 2 finish at home—a game in which the Carolina Panthers nearly came back from a 24-point deficit.
On top of their unimpressive victories, the Cardinals lost running back James Conner for the season. Arizona's 28th-ranked passing attack is struggling as Marvin Harrison Jr. battles a bad case of the dropsies.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks outscored the Pittsburgh Steelers and Saints 75-30 over the last two weeks. Running back Zach Charbonnet, cornerback Devon Witherspoon and safety Julian Love could return for the Seahawks in this matchup.
Take Seattle for the win.
Predictions
Seahawks: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Cardinals: Davenport, Gagnon
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) in Dublin
2 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Steelers Patriots Football")
Hanford: Steelers (+2.5)
The Steelers have only played one international game, and that came in 2013 when they lost to the Vikings. Things should be a little different this time around, but this should be a tight one either way.
I have a hard time trusting either QB in a game where both defenses like to generate pressure, but I trust Carson Wentz a little less. Pittsburgh's defense has been toothless for the most part, but it did force five turnovers last week and sacked Drake Maye five times.
Expect this one to be ugly, but the Steelers' front seven is the difference.
Knox: Vikings (-2.5)
It looks like it'll be Carson Wentz for the Vikings again this week, which is a boon for Minnesota. Expect a close, physical game in which experience will matter—even if neither team has a ton of experience playing abroad.
I also expect to see Minnesota make life miserable for Aaron Rodgers. Pittsburgh has not run the ball well this season, and a lack of balance will make the difference.
Predictions
Vikings: Knox, Moton
Steelers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
New Orleans Saints (0-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-0)
3 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Bills Football")
Hanford: Bills (-16.5)
The Bills burned me on a double-digit spread last week, so I'm wincing as I take them again, but I don't see a scenario in which the New Orleans offense can keep pace with Josh Allen and Buffalo. Opposing QBs have diced up the Saints defense through the first three weeks.
The Bills have put up at least 30 points in every game, and the Saints are averaging 15 points per game. This could be seen as a trap game ahead of a prime-time divisional clash with New England in Week 5, but I'm trusting the massive gap between these two teams to prevail in a blowout win for Buffalo.
O'Donnell: Saints (+16.5)
Simply put, this is too large a spread to feel comfortable laying the points regardless of how good the favorite is. The Bills are also a mediocre 11-9 ATS at home since 2023.
Allen and Co. are likely to put this game out of reach early, leaving way too much room open for a backdoor cover against a Saints team with nothing to lose. Their blowout in Seattle last week featured a blocked punt setting up an easy score and a punt return for a touchdown.
The Bills can cover this spread, but I'll err on the side of the points if New Orleans can avoid mistakes in the third phase of the game.
Predictions
Saints: O'Donnell, Sobleski
Bills: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton
.jpg?w=256 "Cardinals Draft Love Football")
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0)
4 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Eagles Chiefs Football")
Gagnon: Eagles (-3)
Baker Mayfield has yet to throw an interception despite seven turnover-worthy plays. It's only a matter of time before we see Bad Baker, who was tied for the NFL lead in picks last season. Without his top two receivers, he is due for a rough one against an Eagles team arguably due for a laugher.
Philly is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games, and the Bucs have outscored their opponents by just six total points this year.
Knox: Buccaneers (+3)
On paper, this should be an easy Eagles win. The Buccaneers are injury-riddled, and the way in which they're winning games isn't sustainable. However, Todd Bowles knows how to disrupt Jalen Hurts, and Philly has been vulnerable to the run. I'll take the home team and the points.
Predictions
Eagles: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
Buccaneers: Knox, Sobleski
Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Detroit Lions (2-1)
5 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Lions Ravens Football")
Knox: Lions (-8.5)
This isn't the exact same defense the Browns had in 2023, but that group was dominant at home and barely serviceable on the road. I've seen nothing thus far to make me think things will be any different in 2025. As long as Jared Goff knows to go after Greg Newsome II and Myles Harden, it's likely to be a long day for Cleveland.
Sobleski: Browns (+8.5)
Mason Graham game incoming. The Browns' rookie defensive tackle, who was selected with this year's fifth overall draft pick, is coming off an excellent performance. He'll be back in Michigan after playing for the Wolverines.
The highly disruptive defender will also be going against the Lions' new-look offensive interior, which should allow him to be the spearhead for Cleveland's top-ranked defense to keep this game relatively close.
Predictions
Browns: Gagnon, Sobleski
Lions: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Carolina Panthers (1-2) at New England Patriots (1-2)
6 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Falcons Panthers Football")
Hanford: Panthers (+5.5)
You'd think home field would help the Patriots here, but they've yet to get a victory in Foxborough this season.
Bryce Young and the Panthers have quietly looked better lately on both sides of the ball. They scored 19 straight points to end the game against the Cardinals in a Week 2 loss and beat the brakes off the Falcons 30-0 in Week 3, only turning the ball over once with three takeaways in their favor.
Drake Maye looked better than the box score showed against Pittsburgh in Week 3, but this Patriots team is committing penalties left and right and can't get out of its own way well enough to win this by more than a field goal.
Moton: Patriots (-5.5)
The Panthers will travel to New England, which brings us back to why you should bet against them on the road. Carolina is 1-14 with Young as its starting quarterback away from home, and the club lost 10 of those contests by at least seven points.
The Panthers need more than a 30-0 home win against an Atlanta Falcons team that laid an egg on the road to prove they're on the right track.
Predictions
Panthers: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Patriots: Gagnon, Moton
Washington Commanders (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
7 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Falcons Vikings Football")
Gagnon: Falcons (+1.5)
The Falcons have had their problems, but this is a critical home game against a team that may not have its star quarterback. And even if Jayden Daniels does play, he won't likely be 100 percent. Throw in Terry McLaurin's quad injury, and I think the Falcons can pull this off at home.
Knox: Commanders (-1.5)
Washington's run defense is significantly better than it was a year ago, and that will make the difference here. The Falcons need to settle down Michael Penix Jr. after last week's implosion. I don't think that will happen if they can't get their ground game rolling. With or without Daniels and McLaurin, the Commanders can escape with a close win.
Predictions
Commanders: Davenport, Hanford, Knox
Falcons: Gagnon, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Tennessee Titans (0-3) at Houston Texans (0-3)
8 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Panthers Texans Football")
Moton: Texans (-7)
The Houston Texans have scored the fewest points through three weeks, and they're 29th in total offense. So, you may be wary about laying seven points on them. Even so, the Tennessee Titans are easily the Texans' weakest opponent to date.
Moreover, the Titans have one of the league's worst offensive lines, which may feature two backups on the right side due to injuries. Cam Ward has taken 15 sacks, the most in the league, and Houston is tied for the sixth-most sacks with nine.
This is a bad matchup for the Titans, and one in which the Texans could score multiple defensive touchdowns to get them a clear cover.
Sobleski: Titans (+7)
The Texans still haven't found a way to properly protect C.J. Stroud. Meanwhile, Tennessee features a caliber of defensive front capable of making the quarterback miserable throughout the contest.
Granted, the reverse points apply as well when discussing Ward being the NFL's most sacked QB and the Texans' ability to get after it defensively, which is exactly why this is the type of contest that could turn out to be lower-scoring and tight.
As a result, take the underdog.
Predictions
Titans: Davenport, Hanford, Sobleski
Texans: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Los Angeles Chargers (3-0) at New York Giants (0-3)
9 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Chargers Football")
O'Donnell: Chargers (-6)
Starting Jaxson Dart in Week 4 against an undefeated Chargers team, a week before the Giants travel to winless New Orleans, is a desperation move that benefits almost nobody. Jameis Winston should be starting this game for Big Blue.
Instead, Brian Daboll is kowtowing to the boo birds of New York/New Jersey and the desires of an ownership group that hasn't gotten anything right for the better part of a decade.
I want to see Dart succeed as much as anyone, but his career is going to get off to a rough start. Let's stop doubting the Chargers, too.
Sobleski: Chargers (-6)
Traditionally, a cross-country flight for a west coast squad, with a 1 p.m. ET start, is ripe for a letdown. In this particular case, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is playing at an MVP-caliber level early in the season, while the Giants really are that bad.
Aside from the overtime loss to the rival Cowboys, New York has been pretty much controlled by its two other opponents. The Chargers are the best all-around squad on Big Blue's schedule through four weeks.
Meanwhile, there's no reason to believe in the Giants offense yet, even with Dart set to take over for Russell Wilson.
Predictions
Chargers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Indianapolis Colts (3-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-1)
10 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Colts Titans Football")
O'Donnell: Rams (-3.5)
This hook is almost enough to take the points. Almost.
The Rams don't typically win pretty, and the Daniel Jones-led Colts are the early-season darlings of the league. However, their strongest win is a one-point home victory against the Broncos.
Can't fault Indy for playing the teams lined up against them, but the demolitions of the Dolphins and Titans don't do as much for me as they seem to do for others. This is a huge test for the Colts while L.A. returns home after a brutal late-game meltdown in Philly a week ago.
I'm willing to roll the dice on a Rams rebound and the Colts coming back down to earth here.
Sobleski: Colts (+3.5)
The Colts are slowly making believers in many, though not through Vegas oddsmakers.
The Rams are the highest level of competition Indianapolis will face so far after a 3-0 start. This contest feels like a potential shootout, with the game's most efficient offense being led by Jones—yes, it's still weird to say—and Matthew Stafford capable of shredding an injury-wrought Indianapolis secondary.
But this play is all about taking the points and finally giving the Colts their due after three strong performances.
Predictions
Colts: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Sobleski
Rams: Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0)
11 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Jaguars Bengals Football")
Davenport: Jaguars (+3.5)
To be fair, the Jaguars are probably the least impressive 2-1 team in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence hasn't played well and Brian Thomas Jr. has vanished from the offense—neither is a good sign. But the loss of edge-rusher Nick Bosa was another hammer-blow injury for a 49ers team that has won three games by a combined 10 points.
O'Donnell: 49ers (-3.5)
Lawrence is 9-22 straight up in his career on the road. In that same span, the Jaguars are 12-15 ATS as road underdogs and 8-13 ATS in non-conference games.
The injury bug has decimated the 49ers so badly that we don't know which injured QB will start this week. Add that to Bosa's season-ending injury, and almost all the other panelists see this as an opportunity for the Jags.
I don't trust 'em as far as I can throw 'em. I'm banking on a Kyle Shanahan-Robert Saleh masterminded victory that gets the job done against a tough spread.
Predictions
Jaguars: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, Sobleski
49ers: Knox, O'Donnell
Baltimore Ravens (1-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)
12 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Lions Ravens Football")
Gagnon: Ravens (-2.5)
The Ravens and Chiefs both have plus scoring margins despite losing records. Neither gets blown out, so this is likely to go down to the wire.
The Chiefs may have the Arrowhead advantage, but the Ravens have the edge in being the more talented and healthier team.
Keep in mind, Kansas City is also just 1-5 ATS in its last six regular-season home games.
Hanford: Chiefs (+2.5)
The Chiefs finally got their first win of the season and now get to come back to Arrowhead as an underdog against a team they've beaten in four of their last five meetings.
This iteration of the Chiefs is not as strong on either side of the ball as it has been in recent years, but I'm still backing Patrick Mahomes to cover.
The Ravens, on paper, should win this game. Derrick Henry has been contained in the last two games, but Lamar Jackson is still Lamar Jackson.
However, in the Ravens' two biggest matchups this year against the Bills and Lions, they haven't risen to the moment. That changes here as Baltimore squeaks by for a signature win to put the Chiefs at an unthinkable 1-3, but Kansas City covers.
Predictions
Ravens: Davenport, Gagnon, Moton, Sobleski
Chiefs: Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Chicago Bears (1-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-2)
13 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Cowboys Bears Football")
Moton: Bears (-1.5)
The Las Vegas Raiders' offensive line hasn't allowed enough time for Geno Smith to play comfortably from the pocket or opened running lanes for Ashton Jeanty. The Raiders have only scored more than 20 points in one game with garbage-time numbers against the Washington Commanders last week.
The Bears' 26th-ranked run defense won't be as big an issue as the Raiders' inability to block up front. Plus, Chicago has a stronger group of pass-catchers, considering Brock Bowers' underwhelming performances while playing through a knee injury. Caleb Williams will shine against Las Vegas' 24th-ranked pass defense. The Raiders will look for solutions on offense heading into October.
O'Donnell: Raiders (+1.5)
I don't trust you, Caleb Williams. I don't. And this is a strange number. In fact, three of the Bears' four games have been 1.5-point spreads this season. Clearly, the bookmakers don't know what to do with these teams, either.
I'm alone on a Raiders team that often does the opposite of what I pick, and that's alright.
The Raiders' struggles rushing the football are well-documented, but they've found some success with an aggressive passing game that has seen Tre Tucker explode to relevance. The Bears' defense, that secondary in particular, with Jaylon Johnson sidelined, can be had.
Williams has one road win in his short career, and I'm not ready to give him a second.
Predictions
Bears: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Raiders: O'Donnell
Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
14 of 16.jpg?w=684 "PARSONS-GARRETT")
Davenport: Cowboys (+6.5)
The Dallas defense is allowing approximately 846 yards of offense and 91 points a game this season. The Cowboys won't have wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. But this is just too many points to lay with a Packers team that is middle of the pack in scoring and 21st in total offense, especially on the road.
Knox: Packers (-6.5)
There's a really good chance the Packers are substantially better at home than on the road this year, but have you seen the Cowboys' defense? Even if Dallas generates enough offense, without Lamb, to keep this close, the line is less than a touchdown and an extra point.
Predictions
Packers: Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski, O'Donnell
Cowboys: Davenport, Gagnon
New York Jets (0-3) at Miami Dolphins (0-3)
15 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Dolphins Bills Football")
Davenport: Jets (+2.5)
While the Dolphins at least finally showed a pulse last week against the Bills, they are still just a couple of bad losses away from having a "Help Wanted" sign in the window.
The Jets nearly beat the Buccaneers in Tampa last week with Tyrod Taylor under center.
In Week 4, Gang Green get Aaron Glenn his first win.
Moton: Dolphins (-2.5)
In Week 3, on a short turnaround, the Dolphins showed fight against the Buffalo Bills and helped one B/R panelist nail his Thursday night lone-wolf pick.
On Monday, they will notch their first win of the season over the division-rival Jets, who may be without starting quarterback Justin Fields (concussion).
Even if Fields plays, Miami can pull out a win by at least a field goal if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa doesn't turn the ball over, which is possible given Gang Green have yet to force a takeaway this season.
For at least a week, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel can crack a smile of relief as he sits on a hot seat.
Predictions
Jets: Davenport, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Dolphins: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Denver Broncos (1-2)
16 of 16.jpg?w=684 "Broncos Colts Football")
Gagnon: Bengals (+7.5)
This is just a big number considering Denver is 1-2 and merely beat the Titans by a single score at home in Week 1.
Even without Joe Burrow, the Bengals are much better than the team that was destroyed in Minnesota. That loss is generating line value, though, and I'd take advantage.
Hanford: Broncos (-7.5)
What do the Bengals do well without Burrow? That sounds harsh, but it's a legitimate concern. Chase Brown has 93 yards on 47 carries. The offensive line has allowed 10 sacks. The defense has been questionable, except in one matchup against Joe Flacco.
Jake Browning was, to put it mildly, not good in his 2025 debut last week against the Vikings, and life doesn't get any easier against this defense.
Denver's offense has looked stagnant for stretches this season, but this feels like a get-right week for the Broncos at home.
Predictions
Bengals: Gagnon, Moton
Broncos: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).
21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
.jpg?w=480 "Cardinals Draft Love Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Chiefs Rookies Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Browns Declined Cowboys Trade")
.jpg?w=600 "Draft Value Picks Who Could be Fantasy Football Sleepers 🧐")
.png?w=600 "NFL Free-Agent Tracker ✍️"){kind=tracking}
.jpg?w=600 "Breaking News")