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CFP Playoff Bracket, Scenarios and Bowl Projections After 2025-26 Week 5 AP Rankings

Joe TanseySep 21, 2025

The Oklahoma Sooners have been the biggest surprise so far this college football season.

The John Mateer-led Sooners vaulted four spots in the latest AP Top 25 to No. 7 following their Week 4 win over the Auburn Tigers.

Oklahoma still has a gauntlet of a schedule ahead in the SEC, but the play over the first four weeks suggests the Sooners will be in the College Football Playoff conversation.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Indiana Hoosiers confirmed their CFB Playoff credentials in Week 4.

Indiana moved up eight spots to No. 11 after its blowout win over the Illinois Fighting Illini, while Texas Tech moved up five places to No. 12 after its road win over the Utah Utes.

Oklahoma Vaults to No. 7, Squarely in CFB Playoff Discussion

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 20 Auburn at Oklahoma

Oklahoma's move up to No. 7 puts it squarely into the CFB Playoff discussion.

The Sooners are 4-0 with two solid wins over Auburn and the Michigan Wolverines.

John Mateer and Co. certainly impressed in September, but the schedule doesn't get any easier.

The Sooners have the Texas Longhorns in two weeks and they face six more ranked opponents in SEC play.

If they manage through that slate at 4-2, or even 5-1 or 6-0, they will be in the playoff.

However, the gauntlet takes them to Tuscaloosa and Knoxville. There's a potentially difficult road game against the South Carolina Gamecocks squeezed in there as well.

Oklahoma already proved it can handle tough games, but it remains to be seen how it manages one of the toughest schedules in the country.

Indiana Thrusts Itself Back into Playoff Mix

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Illinois v Indiana

Indiana's dismantling of Illinois earned it an eight-spot jump in the AP Top 25.

The Hoosiers are currently the fourth-best team in the Big Ten, according to the AP poll.

Banking a big win over an opponent previously-ranked in the top 10 is huge for the Hoosiers with their upcoming schedule.

The Hoosiers visit the Oregon Ducks on October 11 and take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in Happy Valley on November 8.

If Indiana finds a way to win of those two games, it will be a more significant player in the playoff conversation.

At minimum, the Hoosiers have a chance to go 10-2, which might be good enough to get them into the playoff.

Texas Tech Is Clear Big 12 Favorite

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Texas Tech v Utah

Texas Tech's double-digit road win in Salt Lake City established itself as the Big 12 favorite.

The Red Raiders vaulted five spots to No. 12 after the victory. They are the highest-ranked Big 12 team.

Texas Tech doesn't have a treacherous schedule for the rest of Big 12 play. A road trip to Arizona State on October 18 is the toughest test left.

Joey McGuire's team doesn't have to play the Iowa State Cyclones until the Big 12 Championship Game, if both teams get there.

There's a chance Texas Tech could be undefeated, or have one loss, in the regular season, and if that is the case, the Red Raiders will be a fixture in the Top 10 for the rest of the year.

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