Latest 2025 MLB Playoff Race Predictions Entering Final Week of Regular Season
For 70 days, Major League Baseball's "if the regular season ended today" postseason bracket did not change.
Sure, some of the seeding swapped around, and things got mighty interesting along the cut line at times, with the likes of Cincinnati, Cleveland, Arizona, Kansas City, San Francisco and Texas all flirting with vaulting into the projected field. But there were no changes.
That is, until a Saturday slate in which Houston lost at home to Seattle in wild double-play fashion while Cleveland tossed 18 shutout innings in a doubleheader sweep of Minnesota. The dam finally broke with the Guardians at least temporarily replacing the Astros as the AL's No. 6 seed.
And then one day later, the Reds replaced the Mets via tiebreaker as NL's No. 6 seed.
All of a sudden, with just six games per team remaining until we reach the finish line, several of these races are suddenly more wide open than Tony Batista's batting stance.
Let's go division by division with one final round of predictions at how these regular season standings will shake out.
We'll also finish with predictions of how the postseason will go. However, a more "official" October prognostication will come next week, after all this dust settles.
American League East
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Current Standings
- Toronto Blue Jays (90-66, current AL No. 1 seed, clinched playoff spot)
- New York Yankees (88-68, 2 GB, current AL No. 4 seed)
- Boston Red Sox (85-71, 5 GB, current AL No. 5 seed)
Eliminated: Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
Remaining Schedules
Toronto: 3 vs. Boston, 3 vs. Tampa Bay
New York: 3 vs. White Sox, 3 vs. Orioles
Boston: 3 at Toronto, 3 vs. Detroit
$64,000 Question: How frisky are the Red Sox feeling?
If you're super interested in how the American League bracket will take shape, but for some reason can only watch one team's games the rest of the way, the Red Sox seem to be the obvious pick.
Should they win out against current No. 1 seed Toronto and current No. 3 seed Detroit, ascending all the way to the AL's No. 1 seed is still within the realm of possibility. They would need a fair amount of help in the form of multiple losses by both the Yankees and Mariners, as well as Tampa Bay sweeping Toronto to end the regular season, but, hey, it's possible.
Should that onerous remaining schedule instead get the best of Boston, though, missing the playoffs by a margin of several games is also very much on the table, presently just one game ahead of both Cleveland and Houston.
[Tiebreaker interlude: Boston went 4-2 against Cleveland and 4-2 against Houston and would win the tiebreaker with any combination of them. Cleveland went 4-2 against Houston and would win a two-team tiebreaker there.]
So, which way will the dominoes fall?
It may well depend on whether Wilyer Abreu makes a triumphant return to the fray.
After five weeks on the shelf with a calf strain, Abreu—who was leading the Red Sox in home runs when the injury occurred—made it back into the lineup on Sunday. He went 0-for-4 with a quartet of whiffs, but he just might power them to a strong finish against a pair of division leaders whose offenses haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders lately.
If Boston does manage to take at least two out of three from Toronto, could it be the Yankees who seize the AL East reins?
Winners of 19 of their last 27 games, they close out the regular season at home against a pair of last-place teams, set up to potentially leapfrog to the top of the division while becoming the first team to enter the postseason on a winning streak of at least eight games since the 2019 Washington Nationals used that springboard to win it all.
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays No. 1 seed; New York Yankees No. 4 seed; Boston Red Sox No. 6 seed
American League Central
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Current Standings
- Detroit Tigers (85-71, current AL No. 3 seed)
- Cleveland Guardians (84-72, 1 GB, current AL No. 6 seed)
- Kansas City Royals (78-78, 7 GB)
Eliminated: Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox
Remaining Schedules
Detroit: 3 at Cleveland, 3 at Boston
Cleveland: 3 vs. Detroit, 3 vs. Texas
Kansas City: 3 at Angels, 3 at Athletics
$64,000 Question: Who wins this week's colossal showdown in Cleveland?
Perhaps the better question is: Are you seriously betting against Cleveland right now?
Or are you seriously betting on Detroit figuring out how to stop stumbling to the finish line?
Since August 26, the Guardians have been the best team in baseball. Prior to Sunday's loss at Minnesota, they had won 20 out of 25, allowing just 2.4 runs per game. In less than a month, they gained 11.5 games on the Tigers, who even lost a series at home to the White Sox during their nightmarish stretch of 18 losses in 25 games.
If it continues, it's probably going to go down as the biggest collapse of all time—the irony of that being that Detroit just pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks of all time one year ago, sneaking into the playoffs with that incredible 31-13 sprint to the finish line.
Fittingly, a head-to-head clash awaits.
Scorching-hot Cleveland hosting frostbite-cold Detroit, this Tuesday through Thursday.
Tarik Skubal ought to be on the bump for the Tigers in the opener, but will it be enough? The Guardians already lead the season series by a 6-4 margin, putting them one win away from securing what could be a critical tie-breaker.
And while Detroit subsequently needs to travel to Boston for what just might be a "best two out of three for the No. 6 seed" extravaganza, Cleveland gets to host a Rangers team that ran out of gas a week ago and has been all but officially eliminated from the postseason conversation.
Cleveland winning the AL Central was about a one-in-a-million proposition not even three weeks ago.
But now?
It almost feels inevitable.
Prediction: Cleveland Guardians No. 3 seed
American League West
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Current Standings
- Seattle Mariners (87-69, current AL No. 2 seed)
- Houston Astros (84-72, 3 GB)
- Texas Rangers (79-77, 8 GB)
Eliminated: Athletics, Los Angeles Angels
Remaining Schedules
Seattle: 3 vs. Colorado, 3 vs. Dodgers
Houston: 3 at Athletics, 3 at Angels
Texas: 3 vs. Minnesota, 3 at Cleveland
$64,000 Question: Will the A's and Angels seize the opportunity to chop Houston down to size for once?
Since Houston's run began in 2017, the Astros have gone 257 games over .500 during the regular season, while the A's and Angels have gone a combined 186 games below .500. The Halos haven't made the playoffs since 2014. And the lone year during that stretch in which the A's actually won a game in the postseason, they were knocked out of the ALDS by none other than Houston.
For nine long years, it's been 'Jose Altuve this' and 'Framber Valdez that,' the Astros brushing up against "dynasty" status with seven consecutive trips at least to the ALCS while these two other AL West teams took turns mopping the division's basement floor.
Yet, in what is already assured to be another losing season for both of them, the A's and Angels have the chance to inflict some real pain on their overlords, each hosting Houston during this final week of play.
If both of those teams do what they've done best for most of the past decade and put up little to no fight, Houston will secure a spot in the postseason. With Detroit closing out the season against Boston and Cleveland, those three teams are guaranteed to suffer a combined total of at least six more losses. Without running all of the possible permutations, I believe Houston is a lock with either five or six wins, and it probably has at least a 90 percent chance of making the cut by going 4-2 down the stretch.
But the A's have low-key been one of the best teams in all of baseball since late July, and Mike Trout and his 400 career home runs will do what they can to rise to the occasion to close out the regular season.
We should probably at least mention that we do expect Seattle to wrap up the division, though. The M's should sweep the Rockies at home, and there's a decent chance the Dodgers will be locked into the NL's No. 3 seed before that final series begins, at which point their only real concern is staying healthy and getting their rotation set for the wild card round.
Prediction: Seattle Mariners No. 2 seed; Houston Astros No. 5 seed
National League East
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Current Standings
- Philadelphia Phillies (92-64, current NL No. 2 seed, clinched division)
- New York Mets (80-76, 12 GB)
- Miami Marlins (76-80, 16 GB)
Eliminated: Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals
Remaining Schedules
Philadelphia: 3 vs. Miami, 3 vs. Minnesota
New York: 3 at Cubs, 3 at Miami
Miami: 3 at Philadelphia, 3 vs. Mets
$64,000 Question: Can the Mets salvage this sinking ship?
June 12 feels like it was a lifetime ago.
The New York Mets were 45-24, one half game ahead of the Detroit Tigers for the best record in all of baseball. And for as wild as Detroit's second-half collapse has been, the Mets have dropped 5.5 games further than the Tigers, going 35-52 since that fateful day when Kodai Senga strained his hamstring on an awkward landing when covering first base.
From July 28 through September 13, the Mets went 14-29, going from 1.5 games up on the Phillies in the NL East to 13 games back—this despite Juan Soto racking up 15 home runs and 18 stolen bases with a 1.032 OPS during that stretch.
However, though it has gotten extremely close at times, they had never quite fallen out of the playoff picture, ending every single day in the top six of the National League standings dating back to April 5.
Until now.
The Mets have fallen into a tie with the Cincinnati Reds at four games over .500. Except it's not a tie. With a 4-2 edge in the head-to-head series, the Reds are now in the projected field, controlling their own destiny.
And fresh off losing four straight against Cincinnati to help keep the Reds alive, it's almost up to the Chicago Cubs to determine whether New York makes it to October.
The Cubs are all but locked into the No. 4 seed and not playing for much of anything this week, but it's looking like they'll have both Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd making one final pre-postseason tune-up start at home against the Mets on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. And if Chicago wins any of those games against the Mets while the Reds are busy potentially sweeping their home series against the Pirates, it may be curtains for the Metropolitans.
At the other end of the seeding spectrum, could the Phillies keep some pressure on Milwaukee for home-field advantage? They're currently three games back, and it's more like 3.5 with Milwaukee possessing the head-to-head tiebreaker. But with six home games remaining against the Marlins and Twins, the Phils just might win out.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies No. 2 seed
National League Central
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Current Standings
- Milwaukee Brewers (95-61, current NL No. 1 seed, clinched playoff spot)
- Chicago Cubs (88-68, 7 GB, current NL No. 4 seed, clinched playoff spot)
- Cincinnati Reds (80-76, 15 GB, current NL No. 6 seed)
- St. Louis Cardinals (76-80, 19 GB)
Eliminated: Pittsburgh Pirates
Remaining Schedules
Milwaukee: 3 at San Diego, 3 vs. Cincinnati
Chicago: 3 vs. Mets, 3 vs. St. Louis
Cincinnati: 3 vs. Pittsburgh, 3 at Milwaukee
St. Louis: 3 at San Francisco, 3 at Cubs
$64,000 Question: Do the Reds have what it takes to finish the fight?
At the opposite end of Ohio, Cleveland has been on a preposterous run to come back from the dead in the American League postseason picture, winning 15 out of 16 to surge to 12 games over .500.
The Reds' ascension to the brink of the postseason has been much less of a freight train situation and more of an innocent bystander who briefly got a little warm while watching a dumpster fire on wheels fall behind them.
The Reds are merely 30-29 since the All-Star Break. However, the Mets saw fit to leave the door wide open, and now a colossal opportunity is at Cincinnati's doorstep with Pittsburgh coming to town.
Even in the one game against the Pirates that one must always worry about, thoughts and prayers for Paul Skenes' usually minimal run support when he toes the rubber against Hunter Greene, who has a 1.44 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in 10 home starts this season.
After hosting the Pirates, Cincinnati will have to deal with what is, on paper, the most difficult series imaginable this season, ending the year at Milwaukee.
Will the Brewers really be invested in that series, though? Having already clinched a first-round bye and possibly locked into the No. 1 overall seed by the time Cincinnati gets into town?
It might be more of a "come out and celebrate an unforgettable season before the games start to matter again" situation, like when the 2023 Atlanta Braves had secured home-field advantage throughout the postseason before losing two of their final three games at home to the last-place Washington Nationals. And maybe the Reds take advantage in a situation where they have all of the motivation.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers No. 1 seed; Chicago Cubs No. 4 seed; Cincinnati Reds No. 6 seed
National League West
6 of 9
Current Standings
- Los Angeles Dodgers (88-68, current NL No. 3 seed, clinched playoff spot)
- San Diego Padres (85-71, 3 GB, current NL No. 5 seed)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (79-77, 9 GB)
- San Francisco Giants (77-79, 11 GB)
Eliminated: Colorado Rockies
Remaining Schedules
Los Angeles: 3 at Arizona, 3 at Seattle
San Diego: 3 vs. Milwaukee, 3 vs. Arizona
Arizona: 3 vs. Dodgers, 3 at San Diego
San Francisco: 3 vs. St. Louis, 3 vs. Colorado
$64,000 Question: Could the Diamondbacks pull off the miracle?
Real talk?
When we started putting this together on Saturday afternoon, the NL West plan was the focus on the Dodgers, who appear to be hitting their stride when it matters most.
That was only the plan, though, because nothing else here looked all that interesting. The Padres have been practically locked into the No. 5 seed for a while now, and the Diamondbacks looked extremely unlikely to battle all the way back for the No. 6 seed, then down by three games with eight remaining against the Phillies, Dodgers and Padres.
But while the Mets lost back-to-back home games to the woebegone Nationals, the Snakes won their final two against the Phillies, turning this into a "three teams for one spot" battle in a hurry.
For the record, Cincinnati would win any tiebreaker involving these three teams, having gone 4-2 against each of the Mets and the Diamondbacks. If it's a tie between just Arizona and New York, though, the Diamondbacks would win because of their superior intradivision record.
Can Arizona get us to a point where tiebreakers matter, though?
Even if the Diamondbacks win out against a brutal remaining schedule, they need Cincinnati to suffer at least two losses AND the Mets to lose at least one game. Suffer even one loss to the Dodgers or Padres this week and the difficulty level of getting as much help as they need ramps up considerably.
Never say never, though. Goodness knows the odds one week ago of both Cleveland and Cincinnati being in the playoff picture right now were way slimmer than the odds of Arizona erasing this one-game deficit.
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers No. 3 seed; San Diego Padres No. 5 seed
Predicting the Postseason (Wild Card Round)
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With seven of the 12 postseason spots and all 12 of the seeds still up in the air, we'll save the deep dive into the various matchups until next week when at least the wild card round is actually set in stone. But given our projections for how things shake out over these final seven days, here's your latest October forecast: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs.
Wild Card Series
NL No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers over NL No. 6 Cincinnati Reds
NL No. 4 Chicago Cubs over NL No. 5 San Diego Padres
AL No. 6 Boston Red Sox over AL No. 3 Cleveland Guardians
AL No. 4 New York Yankees over AL No. 5 Houston Astros
Dating back to 1996, there have been just two instances of "Ohi-October" in which both Cleveland and Cincinnati made the playoffs...and those teams went a combined 0-6 between the 2013 and 2020 postseasons, immediately eliminated in the wild card round.
Unfortunately for the Buckeye State, it happens again, the Reds running up against a finally jelling Dodgers squad while the Guardians' low-scoring offense—even with home-field advantage—could be in a world of hurt against Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Aroldis Chapman.
Meanwhile, Houston has been quite the thorn in New York's postseason side, eliminating the Yankees in each of 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2022. However, these Astros are nowhere near the force they have been over the past decade, while the Yankees, like the Dodgers, appear to be hitting their stride when it matters most. Framber Valdez polishing off what has been a brutal two-month stretch (6.71 ERA since the beginning of August) with a 1.2 IP, 6 ER sort of torpedo bats-fueled disaster could be in the offing.
Lastly, Cubs-Padres could be a three-game gem. However, the Padres have a losing record on the road and have been the least "homer-ific" of all the teams with a playoff pulse. And it's hard to win on the road in October when you don't hit dingers. Should the Dads secure a lead in the seventh inning or later in any of these games, though, they're probably not giving it back.
Predicting the Postseason (ALDS/NLDS)
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American League Division Series
AL No. 2 Seattle Mariners over AL No. 6 Boston Red Sox
AL No. 4 New York Yankees over AL No. 1 Toronto Blue Jays
Which Seattle team shows up in October? The one that won 10 of 11 after the trade deadline and recently reeled off 13 out of 14? Or the one that lost 15 out of 21 in between? "Hot Seattle" might be the best team out there this year, and after winning the AL West for what will be the first time since 2001, Hot Seattle shows up for at least one round.
The AL East showdown will likely be the highest scoring of the DS round, and how much of that scoring occurs in the ninth inning could be the difference. Well, David Bednar has a 1.43 ERA dating back to May 24 while every Jeff Hoffman appearance has been an adventure. However, Hoffman has had quite a bit of success against the Yankees this season with five saves and a 1.29 ERA. Should that continue, that's a potential series-changer.
National League Division Series
NL No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies over NL No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers
NL No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers over NL No. 4 Chicago Cubs
Though the Dodgers have been hot lately, the Phillies have been hotter, even taking two out of three in Los Angeles this past week. And with an MLB-best 51-24 record at home this season, rolling out Cristopher Sánchez for Game 1 at Citizens Bank Park—where he has a 2.21 ERA in 30 starts across the past two seasons—might be too much for even Los Angeles to overcome.
In the big NL Central clash, though we like the Cubs to take care of business at Wrigley Field against the Padres, taking down the Brewers is a much bigger ask. Chicago had the better offense for much of the season, but Milwaukee has outscored the Cubs by nearly 100 runs since the All-Star Break.
Predicting the Postseason (ALCS/NLCS/World Series)
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American League Championship Series
AL No. 2 Seattle Mariners over AL No. 4 New York Yankees
Revenge is a dish best served 24 years cold. And three months after Ichiro Suzuki's Hall of Fame induction, the Mariners will pay back the Yankees for the 2001 ALCS in which the Evil Empire ruined a rookie Ichiro's best chance at making a World Series. New York had Seattle's number this season, going 5-1 in that series. All those games came in the first half, though, back before the M's started to figure things out.
National League Championship Series
NL No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies over NL No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers
This one could be an instant classic. Both teams have been outstanding at home this season—except when facing each other. The Brewers swept the Phillies in Philadelphia the weekend after Memorial Day, but the Phillies took two out of three in Milwaukee in a series that began on Labor Day. They've been the two best teams in the majors this season, but Philadelphia's superior slugging reigns supreme over Milwaukee's superior defense.
2025 World Series
NL No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies over AL No. 2 Seattle Mariners
It's two of the best rotations in baseball, as well as two of the best closers. It's also Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper vs. Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez. It's not Yankees-Dodgers from a ratings/markets perspective, but it could be a drastically more competitive World Series that goes the distance. And though probably every single "no dog in the fight" fan of baseball will be pulling for the Mariners in their first ever trip to the World Series, the Phillies have been gradually improving over the past five years and finally get back to the top of the mountain.
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